Originally Posted by shingo10
I'm not saying scouting isn't important I'm saying that there is no way to predict who is gonna to evolve and who is going to bust. There just isn't. That's why trades for prospects will always be a huge risk...some of them end up like Aaron Poreda and some of them end up like Gio Gonzales.
And I think that idea is wrong. That's exactly what scouting is. That's why some players are 1st round draft picks and others are 50th round draft picks. That most of those players fail in baseball is just pure statistics: hundreds of players are drafted every year, there are thousands of players in the minor leagues, but only a small handful of those will make the major leagues. That the best are wrong most of the time doesn't mean they are failing overall and there are no experts in the field, just as you wouldn't call every major league baseball player a failure because they fail in the majority of their at bats.