Originally Posted by DSpivack
And I think that idea is wrong. That's exactly what scouting is. That's why some players are 1st round draft picks and others are 50th round draft picks. That most of those players fail in baseball is just pure statistics: hundreds of players are drafted every year, there are thousands of players in the minor leagues, but only a small handful of those will make the major leagues. That the best are wrong most of the time doesn't mean they are failing overall and there are no experts in the field, just as you wouldn't call every major league baseball player a failure because they fail in the majority of their at bats.
No problem with what you say here. My contention is that if you studied football and basketball drafts over the years there would be a greater percentage of high draft picks making it in those sports than in baseball. Now, at this point I have neither the time nor the inclination to prove or disprove this. Perhaps someone has done it already, there are more "studies" about more subjects out there these days than ever it seems.