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Old 11-18-2012, 07:39 PM
TDog TDog is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Modesto, California
Posts: 17,832

Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
The "contrived formulas" are still rooted in your precious "organic stats," so the idea that you have to whip out the old calculator to do such magical alchemy like "adding" and "multiplying" which suddenly renders the numbers useless is probably... well, there's no nice way for me to put it, so I will merely state it's either the result of blatant and deliberate ignorance.

And yes, there are them fancy number things that do help us quantify how much Paul Konerko helped and hurt the Sox last year. His oWAR was 2.7 (he added about 3 wins to the team at the plate compared to his position) and cost the team 2.2 wins defensively (though, I do admit I'm not as fond of the defensive stats, but pretty much anything is better than fielding percentage) so, when you remove the duplication built in for position, you get a WAR of Konerko of +1.4 last season, which essentially means that if Konerko had vanished off the face of the Earth in March 2012 and the Sox replaced him with the league average offensive and defensive 1B, they would have expected to win 83 or 84 games last year instead of the 85 they did win with his contributions.
The sad thing is that you beleive that.

Organic statistics aren't prescious, they are natural parts of the game. If your shortstop makes 40 errors, you don't say he cost your teams x-games based on his fielding percentage, but you know that his defensive game needs to be addressed if he is going to continue there. But you watched him play, so you probably already knew that. The fact that organic stats don't tell you that much has people trying to work out exotic formulas to try to tell them more.

If you want to argue that Paul Konerko cost the White Sox x-number of games on defense last season, you have to be able to quantify that with what actually happened. Really, if you can't do the same for everyone on defense on every team, your numbers are invalid. That is the way science works.

If you are going to apply scientific formulas to baseball, the burden to show they match what we see actually happen is on you. Otherwise, your formuas are invalid.
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