View Single Post
Old 01-30-2013, 09:40 AM
doublem23 doublem23 is offline
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Roscoe Village
Posts: 55,245
Blog Entries: 5

Originally Posted by asindc View Post
1) Teams that hit for average power with low strikeouts are preferable to teams that hit for average power with high strikeouts, which is a more apples-to-apples comparison. Hitting for average or high power is not mutually exclusive to average-to-low strikeout rates.
That's not the argument, obviously good offensive teams are better than bad offensive teams, it's just that how often a team K's is not indicative of either.

Originally Posted by asindc View Post
2) That is absolutely not true. Trading an out for a run is always, always preferable to not making an out when a run does not score. RUNS are the most precious commodity in baseball.
No, a team's WPA (the probability that they will win based on in-game situation and historical data) will generally drop on plays that result in an out made and a run scored. Again, there are times when this is not true, such as in late game situations when a team is trailing, but generally speaking, for most of innings 1-8 it is never beneficial to make an out. That is a fact backed up numbers, you can choose to accept or deny it all you like. I suppose your WPA may increase on plays when you make an out and score two or three runs, but those are extremely rare. Generally speaking, in terms of win probability, it is beneficial to walk over hitting a sacrifice fly. It is better to walk than it is to ground out and score a runner from third. Outs are more precious because you only get 27 of them. Once they are gone, they are gone.

Originally Posted by asindc View Post
3) Making outs infrequently is not incompatible with low stikeout rates.

Team A: 6000 PAs, 1000 SOs.

Team B: 6000 PAs, 850 SOs.

Assume that the two teams played the same number of times in the same park against the same teams and faced the same pitchers. Except for run-scoring outs and total runs, all other stats (Avg, hits, 2B, SB, HR, other teams' errors made, etc.) are the same. There is no statistical model that can be produced that will show that Team A outscored or even scored the same number of runs as Team B. Team B will have scored more runs and advanced more runners via an out or walk than Team A, resulting in more runs scored total, all else being equal.
Well OBVIOUSLY if you're going to stack the deck with your little fantasy you will prevail, but over here in reality (where I am trying to steer the conversation) you will notice that K rate is a very poor way to evaluate an offense. Generally speaking, it doesn't matter how a team makes their outs. I know you guys can harp on how you can advance runners or you can hit into an error over and over and over again, but there just isn't any evidence to suggest any of that really matters in the long run. Over the course of 162 games, outs are simply outs. Teams that make them more frequently are generally worse offensively than teams that don't. It doesn't matter how they are accrued.

2015 Obligatory Attendance/Record Tracker

LAST GAME: May 22 - Sox 3, Twins 2
NEXT GAME: June 8 - Sox vs. Astros
Reply With Quote