Originally Posted by doublem23
BP is extremely relevant in the baseball world. People are free to believe or deny that as much as they'd like, but there's a reason that many BP writers go on to be hired by MLB clubs, other baseball syndicates, or other high profile statistic-driven jobs. I mean, the PECOTA projections here are the brainchild of Nate Silver whose arguably one of the most well respected statisticians in the world at present. I know it's fun to think of these guys as nerds you remember in high school sitting in their parent's basement, splitting time writing numerical fantasies about baseball and watching porn, but the reality is they're deeply intellectual people with a very, very sound understanding of the game and what they're trying to measure and evaluate. If there is a problem with it, it's that too many people who don't fully understand their work put waaaaaay too much stock into certain numbers at times (and subsequently miss the forest for the trees). But that doesn't really change their relevance in the baseball world. There's a reason why everyone looks at BP projections and few others.
I'll grant you everything you said about BP and PECOTA projections, but my main objection to them with regard to the Sox is that while realizing that their PECOTA model consistently misses the mark in projecting the Sox' performance, they don't seem to be able (or willing) to adjust accordingly. I think they know what they are doing generally, but I don't think they get how the Sox roster is specifically constructed and managed. At least their consistently-wrong Sox projections indicate such.
"I have the ultimate respect for White Sox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Red Sox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country." Jim Caple, ESPN (January 12, 2011)
"We have now sunk to a depth at which the restatement of the (bleeding) obvious is the first duty of intelligent men." — George Orwell