Originally Posted by asindc
I'll grant you everything you said about BP and PECOTA projections, but my main objection to them with regard to the Sox is that while realizing that their PECOTA model consistently misses the mark in projecting the Sox' performance, they don't seem to be able (or willing) to adjust accordingly. I think they know what they are doing generally, but I don't think they get how the Sox roster is specifically constructed and managed. At least their consistently-wrong Sox projections indicate such.
I don't think their 2013 projection is anything to get worked up about. They're probably underestimating what the Sox are likely to do, but they're not all that far off the mark. They say 77 wins and this team looks like a .500 team to me.
What I do find interesting, though, is that they've been so wrong about the Sox in so many years going back to 2005. Only twice in the last 8 seasons did they overestimate the Sox win total and those times it was only by a small amount.