This is literally the single worst analogy i have ever read because a) only a complete and utter moron would base probablity on mean and not mode. Like, i literally cannot comprehend how stupid someone would have to be to make such an error and b) obviously a dice roll is the definition of a random event. Even if you rolled a 6 on a 6-sided dice 10,000 times in a roll the odds you'd roll a 6 on #10,001 is still 1/6. Comparing a weighted, statistical model (such as say... Pecota) to a truly random event shows a real fundamental lack of understanding of statistics and probability.