Originally Posted by blandman
But the model works well with other teams. Generally, large discrepancies are easily explained, usually by players not on the roster having an impact. There is no need to account for future trades or unexpected callups in the model. They are not rating the farm system, bank account of the team, or the general manager. They are rating the players on the roster and nothing more. As a system, it works really really well.
We're not talking about "other teams." This is about the White Sox, and PECOTA's inability to project their seasons accurately. As I said, the fangraphs article does a nice job showing a major flaw in their system, and why the Sox are the consistent outlier. They are just way better at keeping their players healthy than any other team in the league. PECOTA does not take that into account. It's not, at all, about players not currently on the roster. It's about keeping
their current players on the roster.