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Old 02-19-2013, 03:23 PM
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doublem23 doublem23 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dickallen15 View Post
Then they are converting it. This entire argument has been about how off they have been about the White Sox projected win totals.
I would assume they do it as a courtesy to people since the Pythagorean W-L forumla is pretty standard knowlegde amongst the baseball community and it presents the data in an easily digestable format.

The best analogy I can think of off the top of my head are bakers. Most professional bakers measure ingredients in weight (100 grams of flour), not the volume that you're used to seeing in cookbooks designed for everyday chums like you and me, because it's just easier and more accessable for most people. The conversions are pretty commonplace, but if you're operating in the world of professional cooking, you're not using cups and tablespoons to create the recipes, only translating at the very end.

Quote:
Originally Posted by asindc View Post
Which is, of course, why BP presents their projections in terms of wins and losses instead of just runs scored and runs allowed.

As has been continually noted by those, including me, who express ridicule of BP's consistently wrong guesses with regard to the Sox's record, that should not be taken as an indictment of BP as a whole. They seem to generally do exceptional work, but for whatever (not subjective, IMO) reasons, BP generally fails to properly evaluate the Sox before the season is played out, at least in its application of PECOTA.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sullythered View Post
Isn't that exactly the point we're arguing? That converting PECOTA is not a very accurate system when it comes to W-L? This thread is about the BP projection for the White Sox W-L record.
It's an important distinction to make for no other reason than for someone to make an accurate critique of their success or failures based on the PECOTA system, it would be measured against actual RS/RA output since, again, that is what PECOTA actually projects. If you're judging the model against W-L, well, it kind of underlines the fact that you're out of your league.
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