Originally Posted by voodoochile
This is actually a fairly good analogy because like weather there are a LOT of complex factors that go into predicting baseball outcomes.
Now like that article that "fixed" the Sox results by figuring out where the extra wins are coming from (or at least suggesting a plausible statistical fix).
Question because I honestly don't know. Since all that was discussed in that "fix" article how accurate has Pecota been on the whole at this stuff? Sox W/L was off by 5% (or so) is the rest of the league more accurate?
I think the Sox stand out because they almost always outperform the projection. The fact is, the Sox projection was off 10 games last season. There were 11 more teams that were off by at least that much. They had 2 teams right on, and I think there were 12 teams within 5 games. But some of those projections were too high instead of the Sox usual too low. I would admit people probably wouldn't be too upset with BP if they overestimated Sox wins on an almost annual basis.