Originally Posted by blandman
The problem with this analysis, and pretty much what everyone thinks is fair value for Peavy, is that while he SHOULD give you no. 2 starter value, he most certainly will not. The sad truth is that in all the years Peavy's been here, he's only pitched that way last year. Even before he was injured this year, he was pitching like a 3-4 guy. What's his ERA? Mid fours? Opponents hitting like .250 off of him? That's not very good. We needed Peavy healthy and pitching like he's got the talent to. Recent history is not in our favor.
The problem with this analysis is that you are cherry-picking stats.
Through his first nine starts this year, Peavy was 6-2 with a 2.97 ERA. Is that not No. 2 starter material? I believe it is.
His last two starts, during which he went to the mound injured, he was 0-2 with an 8.53 ERA. Twelve of the 32 earned runs he's allowed this year were in his last two starts before he went on the disabled list. Coincidence? I don't think so.
Peavy pitched well all of last season and his first nine starts of this year before he got hurt. Then, he had two awful outings.
Peavy has 66 Ks in 67 IP this year. He's a top-of-the-rotation starter who still misses bats regularly.
I completely disagree with you. He has been pitching like a No. 2 starter for quite some time when healthy. The only question mark with Jake is his health. His performance on the mound is hardly an issue.