Originally Posted by cards press box
+1. Having said that, Mike Olt will probably be the Cub third baseman pretty soon even though he has regressed at AAA. He had an eye injury (a malfunctioning tear duct) at the beginning of the year and while that has been remedied, he hasn't hit that well at AAA. Baseball Prospectus projects Olt to be a .240-.250 hitter with some power, decent walks and average defense at third base. That sounds to me like Conor Gillaspie with less defense and less batting average. Gillaspie's career minor league batting average was .287. Olt's is .269.
The package that the Cubs received from Texas is also far less impressive than the prospects the Cubs dealt to Tampa Bay to get Garza in the first place. I have no doubt that the Cubs would deal every player they got in this latest deal to re-acquire starter Chris Archer if they could. I am also quite sure that the Rays would never do that.
And you are right about Single A pitchers. Hard to say how they will turn out. Before the 2012 season the Sox dealt Jason Frasor for two Single A pitchers, Myles Jaye and Daniel Webb. Webb dominated at A and AA this year but has struggled at AAA so far. Jaye dominated at low A this year but has struggled at high A so far. So, we'll have to see about Jaye and Webb, as well as the single A pitcher that the Cubs just acquired.
And, finally, if the Sox had dealt Jake Peavy for a package led by Olt, I think that this board would have lit up like a Christmas tree and not in a good way.
No question about it. When the Cubs make a move like this, it's regarded as a stroke of genius. If the Sox had made a similar move, they would be declared idiots.
Over the last two summers, the Cubs have dealt four established MLB starters (Dempster, Maholm, Feldman, Garza) for packages of ifs and maybes. Could it work? Sure. It could also fail miserably. I'm just a bit baffled that so many of the writers in this town are convinced each move the Cubs make is going to prove to be brilliant over the long haul. We don't know that yet and we won't know it for years.