Originally Posted by TheVulture
If you get the first pick, you're not guaranteed a prospect who will make an impact, however, you are guaranteed to get the prospect you want. Plus you would be that much more likely to get the picks you want in the subsequent rounds as well.
In addition, you would have close to 60% (an extra 1.8 million) more in international signing allotment than the #7 pick, and roughly 2.5 times what the Sox received this year. That extra 60% would give the Sox room to sign an extra player for roughly the amount they signed their top international signing for this year, I forget his name, but I believe he was signed for under 1.8 million. Having the top pick would allow the sox to sign three of those guys and have more left over for lower tier international signings. It's a massive discrepancy.
Edit: Upon further review, Zapata was signed for 1.6 mil. At #1 pick, the Sox would be able to sign three of those guys. At #7, the Sox would be able to sign one and a couple second tier, or possibly two top tier.
I'd say between having the #1 overall pick and the ability to sign at least one if not two more top tier international players the difference is substantial.
This is actually the best point that has been raised in this thread and I will agree that it made me do a quick double take on my position but I ultimately still feel that the immediate progress of your MLB ready younger players is more important than the ability to sign one or two 16 year olds from the Dominican Republic in July. Plus, unlike draft picks, you can swap international money around in player deals, so if the Sox are really serious about stepping up their game in Latin America, that can still be accomplished without me having to sit through a 100-loss season.
I guess my overall point isn't that I necessarily care if the Sox lose 90 or 100 games, but if the young guys like Garcia, Beckham, Sale, etc. spark a small, ultimately pointless winning streak in 2013, that will be fine with me even if it means the Sox have to settle for a Top 5-6 draft pick instead of a Top 2-3.
And, let's be real here, the Yankees looked absolutely putrid this week. I was at the game Monday and it felt like we were playing ourselves. Bad defense, bad baserunning, bad clutch offense, bad bullpen. They're a pretty terrible team right now. Sweeping them at home offers me no hope the Sox will actually put together a few wins in a row here. We still have mounds of problems.