Originally Posted by blandman
This is a common misconception with teams that start young pitchers who are very good early. The way Santiago ended is way more indicative of his skill set. His second half era was more than half a run higher than the first half, his k:bb ratio was cut in half, and he allowed a .272/.371/.427 line. Making matters worse, he got progressively worse every month of the second half. It's pretty apparent the league caught up to him (which shouldn't be a surprise considering his success is built around a trick pitch players haven't seen in years).
Not to mention - a large part of our staff being good most of the year was Peavy's numbers... and Dylan Axelrod, who is complete garbage time now. And I don't know what's possessing you to assume that Peavy would be moved below Danks in the rotation.
Sale and Quintana are really it for guys that had full, good years that we can feel relatively safe counting on. Peavy would have made three. And almost everything I've read assumes Quintana is being shopped. So while the staff on a whole had a good year last year, I don't think it's a stretch to assume that's not going to repeat without adding pitching to the roster.
Ah, but Quintana had a crap second half last year, so as to him, your hypothesis does not apply.