2012 Baseball Prospectus Predictions

[doublem23]

These have been out for a while but I didn't look until today after the reaction to SI's very pessimistic predictions for the Sox.

BP has the Sox 3rd in the division finishing with 77-79 wins.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

They give us a 13% chance to win the division (higher than I expected) and 19% chance at the postseason.

[LITTLE NELL]

This is closer to what we should expect instead of SIs prediction joke.
Lots of ifs with the Sox this year and if all the planets line up the right way and Dunn, Rios, Peavy and Beckham have Comeback Player type years the team should be in the race to the end.

[Noneck]

Sounds like a fair prediction to me.

[Frater Perdurabo]

I also think this is fair.

[ChiSoxGal85]

Originally Posted by LITTLE NELL

This is closer to what we should expect instead of SIs prediction joke.
Lots of ifs with the Sox this year and if all the planets line up the right way and Dunn, Rios, Peavy and Beckham have Comeback Player type years the team should be in the race to the end.

[BRDSR]

I agree, this seems like a very good prediction.

The difference between BP and SI is probably that BP appropriately takes into account career averages and SI probably just does a gut check based on last year's team +/- whatever players were gained and loss. With SI's method we probably are a 67-win team, but it's unrealistic to believe that players with career lows will have similar career lows two years in a row.

The main differences from last year's opening day roster are Juan Pierre, Mark Buerhle, Edwin Jackson, Sergio Santos, and Carlos Quentin. Buerhle and Santos are probably (but not necessarily) net losses, while the others are likely washes at worst. This year's team is also younger, with more potential up/downside. A season similar to last's is most likely, but if some young guys perform well and veterans Dunn/Rios/Beckham return to expected form, the Sox are easily an 85+ win team. It's just that those are a lot of ifs.

[Marqhead]

WSI Automated Response:

"Those clowns at BP have done it again, what a bunch of clowns."

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by Marqhead

WSI Automated Response:

"Those clowns at BP have done it again, what a bunch of clowns."

How do we keep up on the news like that?

[Brian26]

Originally Posted by doublem23

They give us a 13% chance to win the division (higher than I expected) and 19% chance at the postseason.

I was expecting they would say we had a 19% chance to win the division and a 13% chance at the playoffs.

[DumpJerry]

Every team has a lot of"ifs."


Also, no team knows who will be injured, for how long or how seriously. This is why I don't put much credence in pre-season predictions.

[palehosepub]

I thought if fair and objective as far as the White Sox odds. I am surprised that they have the Royals last, even without Soria and with a mediocre rotation I still se them being very competitive and winning 75-79 games; too much good young talent on that team.

[Milw]

Originally Posted by palehosepub

I thought if fair and objective as far as the White Sox odds. I am surprised that they have the Royals last, even without Soria and with a mediocre rotation I still se them being very competitive and winning 75-79 games; too much good young talent on that team.

People have said that about the Royals every year for the past 6 or so. If there's one thing that franchise is consistently good at, it's having a bright future that is never actually realized.

[Madvora]

Houston has no chance at all of making the playoffs.

[palehosepub]

Originally Posted by Milw

People have said that about the Royals every year for the past 6 or so. If there's one thing that franchise is consistently good at, it's having a bright future that is never actually realized.

I'll take the over this year

[SI1020]

Originally Posted by Milw

People have said that about the Royals every year for the past 6 or so. If there's one thing that franchise is consistently good at, it's having a bright future that is never actually realized.

I agree. I'll believe it when I see it.