BP Sox projection.

[LITTLE NELL]

No respect again.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports...,7279767.story

[SephClone89]

Respect really doesn't have anything to do with it.

[DonnieDarko]

Originally Posted by SephClone89

Respect really doesn't have anything to do with it.

Respect...

...is EVERYTHING.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by LITTLE NELL

No respect again.

There's a bit of a difference between this club and previous years, don't ya think?

[DonnieDarko]

Originally Posted by blandman

There's a bit of a difference between this club and previous years, don't ya think?

I think that this team gives me a feeling much like the beginning of last year: I don't expect much. So maybe that'll tell you something about what happens! I mean, they completely shattered my expectations last year, maybe they'll do the same thing again.

[SI1020]

Their track record leaves much to be desired. I realize this is a very flawed Sox team, but when it comes to prognositication I'll take a dart board over BP.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by SI1020

Their track record leaves much to be desired. I realize this is a very flawed Sox team, but when it comes to prognositication I'll take a dart board over BP.

Do you have a basis for this or are you just using two outlying sox seasons as your basis for their body of work?

[aryzner]

I don't think the Sox will win the division but I also don't think they will be below .500.

[voodoochile]

Originally Posted by blandman

Do you have a basis for this or are you just using two outlying sox seasons as your basis for their body of work?

No, it's more that when you factor in their standard deviation once you get to 95% accuracy, it really doesn't tell you much.

Also the pitching staff is going to be better than it was last year, IMO. I would lay odds this team will be at or above .500 again.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by DonnieDarko

I think that this team gives me a feeling much like the beginning of last year: I don't expect much. So maybe that'll tell you something about what happens! I mean, they completely shattered my expectations last year, maybe they'll do the same thing again.

Last year I didn't expect much either. But I expected us to compete. This year, barring some major acquisitions, I do not feel we will be competitive. I think we're right there with KC, at around 75-77 wins. Asking us to win 90 and the Tigers to win less than 90 at the same time is a lot to have happen.

[mahagga73]

Originally Posted by blandman

Last year I didn't expect much either. But I expected us to compete. This year, barring some major acquisitions, I do not feel we will be competitive. I think we're right there with KC, at around 75-77 wins. Asking us to win 90 and the Tigers to win less than 90 at the same time is a lot to have happen.

The Sox have good pitching, they should win close to 80 on that alone. I say a good chance to win the same as last year or a few more at least.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by TheOldRoman

If they make irrelevant projections for ****s and giggles, yeah...

Don't get up in arms about people not taking them seriously for being consistently wrong by a wide margin about the Sox, then claim that the projections don't mean anything anyway and others are dumb if they read too much into them. Good models turn out bad results, sure. But if the model is consistently turning out results which are off, even if it's just one team the model underestimates every year, maybe the model sucks.

PECOTA doesn't project in wins and losses so comparing the Sox's record to their PECOTA projection is pointless.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by voodoochile

I see so it's a statistically derived projection that isn't really meant to be a projection, more just some kind of something something fun... or something...

Good times... Have fun with that...

Glad I never gave them any money since they aren't really serious about their projections and all and didn't jump up and down, beat their chests and point with glee the one year they got one team's projection dead on (just happened to be the Sox) Even if the reasons they said those numbers would be the way they are were completely opposite of the reason they actually were that way and they pulled a blind fart out of a dead skunk's ass and then whiffed it and said, "This is the greatest blind fart anyone has ever whiffed, give us moar money plox!" it matters not because...

FUN!

or something...

Apparently all this content I read from them that is not related to the preseason predictions must be from someone else.

Really, the only reason they are even this big of a deal is because they are blown out of proportion by idiots.

[TheOldRoman]

Originally Posted by doublem23

Really, the only reason they are even this big of a deal is because they are blown out of proportion by idiots.

Yes. Blown out of proportion by idiots who get mad when others don't take BP seriously for making predictions that are continually well off. Idiots who say "THEY ARE WELL RESPECTED!" and then say the predictions are irrelevant and people are dumb for putting too much stock into them.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by TheOldRoman

Yes. Blown out of proportion by idiots who get mad when others don't take BP seriously for making predictions that are continually well off. Idiots who say "THEY ARE WELL RESPECTED!" and then say the predictions are irrelevant and people are dumb for putting too much stock into them.

No, blown out of proportion by folks who literally don't spend a second more looking into BP's methods and simply declare their work pointless based on the whole 0.1% of their work for the season they've bothered to look at. BP's does a lot more than just the preseason predictions, which at this point, I have to assume they release solely to watch the overreactions by the kind of people who think you can roll a 3.5 on a dice.

And again, you are more than free to think what you like of them but if you think that every front office in baseball isn't reading their work, then you're kidding yourself. You sound like the execs at Kodak who never invested in digital photography because they couldn't dream of a world where the nerds on their computers would replace the film everyone grew up with and loved.