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  #76  
Old 12-11-2012, 11:56 PM
CoopaLoop CoopaLoop is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
Ha ha, what? Myers was BA's #28 prospect this year and his K:BB rate has progressively gotten worse as he's moved from A+, AA, and AAA. Guys like this fail ALL. THE. TIME. He's arguably not even their top OF prospect.
Oh yeah he isn't highly rated at all. My bad.
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  #77  
Old 12-12-2012, 12:12 AM
MUsoxfan MUsoxfan is offline
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Originally Posted by DSpivack View Post
He was Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year in 2012.

Who do you think was a bigger prospect for them in the OF? Cain?

He's in pretty good company there:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basebal...the_Year_Award
I give up a great prospect for a proven known commodity just about every single time.

As Doub said, hoarding prospects has done nothing but fail them. Time to change up the business model a bit.

Myers won't help them win right now, and how much losing can an organization take
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  #78  
Old 12-12-2012, 12:12 AM
johnnyg83 johnnyg83 is offline
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Originally Posted by CoopaLoop View Post
Oh yeah he isn't highly rated at all. My bad.
He was highly rated but the trade here has gone from CON to PRo in the last few days. George Brett, all the morning drive sports radio guys are saluting as a sign of not letting prospects run your major league team.

The consensus is that Myers's stock will never be higher and that Montgomery needed a change of scenery. We basically traded Myers and Montgomery for Shields and Odorizzi and Leonard for Miller.

I say this lightly, but the Royals will be a force to reckon with in 2013.
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  #79  
Old 12-12-2012, 12:36 AM
CoopaLoop CoopaLoop is offline
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Originally Posted by johnnyg83 View Post
He was highly rated but the trade here has gone from CON to PRo in the last few days. George Brett, all the morning drive sports radio guys are saluting as a sign of not letting prospects run your major league team.

The consensus is that Myers's stock will never be higher and that Montgomery needed a change of scenery. We basically traded Myers and Montgomery for Shields and Odorizzi and Leonard for Miller.

I say this lightly, but the Royals will be a force to reckon with in 2013.
By midseason, Myers was in everybody's top 5. Even if he never lives up to the hype I am pretty confident he is going to be better than Jeff Francouer.

What is there to like about the Royals rotation after Shields?

Santana and Guthrie are back end guys. Hochevar is a 5th starter. I suppose you can hope Wade Davis' trip to the pen allowed him right himself, but that's far from a sure thing.

I just don't get it. Royals really frightened me with their potential, now they are just another average team.
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  #80  
Old 12-12-2012, 07:38 AM
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doublem23 doublem23 is offline
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I say this lightly, but the Royals will be a force to reckon with in 2013.
In terms of the AL Central, I agree. I mean, I don't expect KC to be able to compete with the Yankees, Rangers, and Angels day in and day out, but they're in this crap-o-la division. You only have to be the 7th best team in the league to win it. I don't think that is unattainable. You're replacing who? Hochevar, Mendoza, Sanchez, Paulino, Teaford, Mazzarro, and Adcock with Shields, Santana, and Davis. If you get a little bounce back from a few guys who were terrible last year like Hosmer, Moustakas, and Francouer and now a full season of Perez... I think that's definitely enough to significantly close the 13-game gap between them and us, which basically pulls them nearly even with Detroit, as well.

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Originally Posted by CoopaLoop View Post
I just don't get it. Royals really frightened me with their potential, now they are just another average team.
How are they less frightening now? Was Myers expected to carry them next season? Was 300-400 innings-ish of the Royals 4th and 5th starter merry go round last year so much more intimidating that the 220 IP Shields will give you and whatever Davis will, as well?
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  #81  
Old 12-12-2012, 07:54 AM
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Originally Posted by CoopaLoop View Post
Oh yeah he isn't highly rated at all. My bad.
Dude, give me a break. Did you just start paying attention to baseball like 10 minutes ago? Get some perspective. Here's the top 5 position player prospects, according to BA, from a 5-year window from 2001-2005.


2001
  • Josh Hamilton (#1)
  • Corey Patterson (#2)
  • Sean Burroughs (#6)
  • Ichiro (#9)
  • Nick Johnson (#10)
2002
  • Hank Blalock (#3)
  • Sean Burroughs (#4)
  • Carlos Pena (#5)
  • Joe Mauer (#7)
  • Wilson Betemit (#8)
2003
  • Mark Teixeira (#1)
  • Rocco Baldelli (#2)
  • Jose Reyes (#3)
  • Joe Mauer (#4)
  • Brandon Phillips (#7)
2004
  • Joe Mauer (#1)
  • BJ Upton (#2)
  • Delmon Young (#3)
  • Rickie Weeks (#5)
  • Alex Rios (#6)
2005
  • Joe Mauer (#1)
  • Delmon Young (#3)
  • Ian Stewart (#4)
  • Joel Guzman (#5)
  • Casey Kotchman (#6)
By my count, that's 20 names...

Guys who lived up to their potential and became one of the best players in the world: Hamilton, Ichiro, Mauer, Teixeira, Reyes... I'll be generous and give you Baldelli, too, as who knows what his career could have been. So that's 6.

Guys who became solid MLB players but did/have not lived up to their hype: Johnson, Pena, Phillips, Upton, Young, Rios, Weeks... 7.

Guys who are absolute busts: Patterson, Burroughs, Blalock, Betemit, Stewart, Kotchman... That's 6 more.

Guy who busted so bad I don't even know who he is and I had to check Wikipedia to make sure he wasn't killed in a car accident or something... Joel Guzman... That's the last 1.

So we're talking, even with the absolute highest rated MiLB prospects, it would appear the superstar to complete and utter bust rate is still less than 1:1.
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  #82  
Old 12-12-2012, 11:17 AM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
Dude, give me a break. Did you just start paying attention to baseball like 10 minutes ago? Get some perspective. Here's the top 5 position player prospects, according to BA, from a 5-year window from 2001-2005.


2001
  • Josh Hamilton (#1)
  • Corey Patterson (#2)
  • Sean Burroughs (#6)
  • Ichiro (#9)
  • Nick Johnson (#10)
2002
  • Hank Blalock (#3)
  • Sean Burroughs (#4)
  • Carlos Pena (#5)
  • Joe Mauer (#7)
  • Wilson Betemit (#8)
2003
  • Mark Teixeira (#1)
  • Rocco Baldelli (#2)
  • Jose Reyes (#3)
  • Joe Mauer (#4)
  • Brandon Phillips (#7)
2004
  • Joe Mauer (#1)
  • BJ Upton (#2)
  • Delmon Young (#3)
  • Rickie Weeks (#5)
  • Alex Rios (#6)
2005
  • Joe Mauer (#1)
  • Delmon Young (#3)
  • Ian Stewart (#4)
  • Joel Guzman (#5)
  • Casey Kotchman (#6)
By my count, that's 20 names...

Guys who lived up to their potential and became one of the best players in the world: Hamilton, Ichiro, Mauer, Teixeira, Reyes... I'll be generous and give you Baldelli, too, as who knows what his career could have been. So that's 6.

Guys who became solid MLB players but did/have not lived up to their hype: Johnson, Pena, Phillips, Upton, Young, Rios, Weeks... 7.

Guys who are absolute busts: Patterson, Burroughs, Blalock, Betemit, Stewart, Kotchman... That's 6 more.

Guy who busted so bad I don't even know who he is and I had to check Wikipedia to make sure he wasn't killed in a car accident or something... Joel Guzman... That's the last 1.

So we're talking, even with the absolute highest rated MiLB prospects, it would appear the superstar to complete and utter bust rate is still less than 1:1.
That's an interesting take, I'd be curious to see if that holds historically.

However, I do feel that it understates just how much more valuable a star level player is with no service time. A couple of those would really help you fill out a roster.

edit: Also, I don't want it to sound like I don't think this is a good trade for the Royals. I would have done this deal too. I'm not that high on Myers. He has an obvious hole in his swing that is going to need some serious retooling if he isn't going to be a lifetime .220 hitter.

Last edited by blandman; 12-12-2012 at 11:46 AM.
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  #83  
Old 12-12-2012, 11:42 AM
Oblong Oblong is offline
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I don't think Dayton Moore is an idiot. Any argument about this trade that you see on twitter or a MB is one he's already had with himself and his staff. He knows the risks. He knows how old Shields is. He decided to go for it. I applaud a GM for that. That's why you build a farm system. More often than not a prospect's top value will be before he gets a full season of ML experience. Maybe this deal will not work out for KC long term and maybe they won't make the playoffs but at some point you have to go from rebuilding to a contender. Why not now. Crap or get off the pot.
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  #84  
Old 12-12-2012, 01:21 PM
SI1020 SI1020 is offline
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Originally Posted by Oblong View Post
I don't think Dayton Moore is an idiot. Any argument about this trade that you see on twitter or a MB is one he's already had with himself and his staff. He knows the risks. He knows how old Shields is. He decided to go for it. I applaud a GM for that. That's why you build a farm system. More often than not a prospect's top value will be before he gets a full season of ML experience. Maybe this deal will not work out for KC long term and maybe they won't make the playoffs but at some point you have to go from rebuilding to a contender. Why not now. Crap or get off the pot.
As doub and others have pointed out most prospects, even the highly regarded ones, don't work out. I still like to have a decent farm system if for no other reason than it can help you great some proven players in return for your young talent. I think this is a good move by KC, and with the blockbuster three team trade involving the Indians, who appeared to help themselves too, where does that leave our team?
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  #85  
Old 12-12-2012, 02:30 PM
johnnyg83 johnnyg83 is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
In terms of the AL Central, I agree. I mean, I don't expect KC to be able to compete with the Yankees, Rangers, and Angels day in and day out, but they're in this crap-o-la division. You only have to be the 7th best team in the league to win it. I don't think that is unattainable. You're replacing who? Hochevar, Mendoza, Sanchez, Paulino, Teaford, Mazzarro, and Adcock with Shields, Santana, and Davis. If you get a little bounce back from a few guys who were terrible last year like Hosmer, Moustakas, and Francouer and now a full season of Perez... I think that's definitely enough to significantly close the 13-game gap between them and us, which basically pulls them nearly even with Detroit, as well.



How are they less frightening now? Was Myers expected to carry them next season? Was 300-400 innings-ish of the Royals 4th and 5th starter merry go round last year so much more intimidating that the 220 IP Shields will give you and whatever Davis will, as well?
"force" is too strong a word. I do predict they'll be better than they were by 10-12 games and if Hosmer and Moustakas hit better they could test Detroit.

Hochevar is a long reliever or SP depth. Hopefully, not in the starting five.
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  #86  
Old 12-12-2012, 02:59 PM
shes shes is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
Dude, give me a break. Did you just start paying attention to baseball like 10 minutes ago? Get some perspective. Here's the top 5 position player prospects, according to BA, from a 5-year window from 2001-2005.


2001
  • Josh Hamilton (#1)
  • Corey Patterson (#2)
  • Sean Burroughs (#6)
  • Ichiro (#9)
  • Nick Johnson (#10)
2002
  • Hank Blalock (#3)
  • Sean Burroughs (#4)
  • Carlos Pena (#5)
  • Joe Mauer (#7)
  • Wilson Betemit (#8)
2003
  • Mark Teixeira (#1)
  • Rocco Baldelli (#2)
  • Jose Reyes (#3)
  • Joe Mauer (#4)
  • Brandon Phillips (#7)
2004
  • Joe Mauer (#1)
  • BJ Upton (#2)
  • Delmon Young (#3)
  • Rickie Weeks (#5)
  • Alex Rios (#6)
2005
  • Joe Mauer (#1)
  • Delmon Young (#3)
  • Ian Stewart (#4)
  • Joel Guzman (#5)
  • Casey Kotchman (#6)
By my count, that's 20 names...

Guys who lived up to their potential and became one of the best players in the world: Hamilton, Ichiro, Mauer, Teixeira, Reyes... I'll be generous and give you Baldelli, too, as who knows what his career could have been. So that's 6.

Guys who became solid MLB players but did/have not lived up to their hype: Johnson, Pena, Phillips, Upton, Young, Rios, Weeks... 7.

Guys who are absolute busts: Patterson, Burroughs, Blalock, Betemit, Stewart, Kotchman... That's 6 more.

Guy who busted so bad I don't even know who he is and I had to check Wikipedia to make sure he wasn't killed in a car accident or something... Joel Guzman... That's the last 1.

So we're talking, even with the absolute highest rated MiLB prospects, it would appear the superstar to complete and utter bust rate is still less than 1:1.
You can spin it that way if you are for the trade, or you can spin it as Rany Jazayerli did for Grantland:

Myers, as mentioned, was named Minor League Player of the Year. In the past 20 years, 14 position players won the same award. Here are their names:

1992: Tim Salmon
1993: Manny Ramirez
1994: Derek Jeter
1995: Andruw Jones
1996: Andruw Jones
1997: Paul Konerko
1998: Eric Chavez
2002: Rocco Baldelli
2003: Joe Mauer
2005: Delmon Young
2006: Alex Gordon
2007: Jay Bruce
2008: Matt Wieters
2009: Jason Heyward
2011: Mike Trout


Yes, Delmon Young was once the Minor League Player of the Year, and if you want to spin this trade for the Royals, you can bring up Young's name as a cautionary tale. And after a promising start to his career, Rocco Baldelli was ravaged by injuries and his career ended at age 28. But every other player on that list has gone on to become a well-above-average player at his position. Most of them became stars. At least a few will go into the Hall of Fame.

When you compare him more specifically to players who were regarded as highly as he is now, the chances of Myers becoming at least an All-Star level player look closer to 90%, while the chances of him totally busting are close to nil.

The Royals didn't just trade a good prospect; they traded one on the level of Trout, Bruce, Paulie, Manny, etc. They could've put Myers in RF and used their FA money to sign a pitcher like Sanchez or trade some less valuable minor leaguers for someone like Floyd and ultimately they would have won 79 games instead of 82 and would've been able to keep Myers going forward. The only way Moore's plan ends up being the better one is if guys like Butler and Gordon have MVP-level seasons, Shields is the AL Cy Young, and their borderline-horrible starters become average-to-slightly above average innings-eaters a la Garland or Floyd for us in recent years, enabling them to sneak into the playoffs and make a WS run. It's just so unlikely.
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  #87  
Old 12-12-2012, 04:19 PM
johnnyg83 johnnyg83 is offline
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Originally Posted by shes View Post
Y
The only way Moore's plan ends up being the better one is if guys like Butler and Gordon have MVP-level seasons, Shields is the AL Cy Young, and their borderline-horrible starters become average-to-slightly above average innings-eaters a la Garland or Floyd for us in recent years, enabling them to sneak into the playoffs and make a WS run. It's just so unlikely.
Only way? HYPER-BOLIC (clap, clap, clap,clap, clap)

The Royals FA money is not at the level to sign a Sanchez.

Shields has already stated he's open to an extension with the Royals and Miller is under control till 2016.

The offense will be OK if Hosmer and Moustakas hit like they were projected to as PROSPECTS. And Perez stays healthy all year.

And I like Myers but he is one year removed from a 254/353/393/745 line in AA ... some say due to nagging injuries.

The Royals needed pitching more than hitting. To acquire pitching you have to pay.
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  #88  
Old 12-12-2012, 04:34 PM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
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The problem with the Royals isn't the G.M. It's the owner.

Lip
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  #89  
Old 12-12-2012, 06:02 PM
DSpivack DSpivack is offline
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Originally Posted by johnnyg83 View Post
Only way? HYPER-BOLIC (clap, clap, clap,clap, clap)

The Royals FA money is not at the level to sign a Sanchez.

Shields has already stated he's open to an extension with the Royals and Miller is under control till 2016.

The offense will be OK if Hosmer and Moustakas hit like they were projected to as PROSPECTS. And Perez stays healthy all year.

And I like Myers but he is one year removed from a 254/353/393/745 line in AA ... some say due to nagging injuries.

The Royals needed pitching more than hitting. To acquire pitching you have to pay.
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The problem with the Royals isn't the G.M. It's the owner.

Lip
If they're too cheap to sign a free agent like Sanchez then why trade for Shields, who'll be paid $21 million over the next two seasons? They'll also be paying a mediocre starter in Jeremy Guthrie $20 million over the next two years, Jeff Francoeur (one of MLB's worst players in 2012) $7 million in 2013, and Ervin Santana (5.16 ERA in 2012) $13 million in 2013.

Yes, David Glass has not been a good owner and is seen by many as cheap. But Dayton Moore has also misspent quite a bit of money there recently which has hurt the team. As others have said, this is the act of a desperate GM who does not have the luxury of planning for the long term.
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  #90  
Old 12-12-2012, 06:22 PM
johnnyg83 johnnyg83 is offline
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Originally Posted by DSpivack View Post
If they're too cheap to sign a free agent like Sanchez then why trade for Shields, who'll be paid $21 million over the next two seasons? They'll also be paying a mediocre starter in Jeremy Guthrie $20 million over the next two years, Jeff Francoeur (one of MLB's worst players in 2012) $7 million in 2013, and Ervin Santana (5.16 ERA in 2012) $13 million in 2013.

Yes, David Glass has not been a good owner and is seen by many as cheap. But Dayton Moore has also misspent quite a bit of money there recently which has hurt the team. As others have said, this is the act of a desperate GM who does not have the luxury of planning for the long term.
Do you pay attention to what the market is for starting pitching? Did you see Ryan Dempster rejected a 2 year, $25 million offer? Ryan "35 y.o., 5.09 ERA in Texas" Dempster.

I'd say those (pitchers) will all be bargains compared to the commitment it takes to get Sanchez. Especially to pitch in KC, who would likely have to overpay. I'll take two SPs in Guthrie and Shields for what you'll have to pay Sanchez.

And they need a "win now" attitude because the "wait for the future" BS has been going on since 1994.

KC used to be a baseball town. This is the most excited I've heard people around here since 2003.

I want them to win baseball games this season, not best farm system.
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