I wanna talk about the AL East

[blandman]

Jim Bowden had an article up today about the AL East saying it was essentially anybody's division to take.

I think the most interesting thing to look at this year is how the whole division seems to have turned upside down. It's entirely possible (maybe even likely) that the Yankees and Red Sox have to duke it out for last place. The Red Sox are relying on guys like Ryan Dempster and John Lackey in their rotation and the Yanks lost tons of offense with Arod's hip injury, Swisher departing, and Russell Martin saying bye (and worse options at catcher than even we're toting). They have no power in their corner outfield (Ichiro and Gardner) and a ton of injury prone guys they're counting on for big years (Texiera, Youk, Granderson). I can't remember the last time the Yanks were this vulnerable.

Meanwhile, Tampa is still throwing out some of the best prospects and second year guys in baseball every year, and Baltimore seems primed to follow that exact path. And Toronto....we all know how much they've improved this offseason. Should be a tremendous race out east.

[doublem23]

My pre-Spring Training gut says:

1. Tampa Bay
2. New York
3. Toronto
4. Boston
5. Baltimore

The Rays pitching is legit. I think the Yankees hang around because that's just what they do. I like Toronto, but I have to see how they play as a team. The Red Sox, I don't know. And the Orioles were +11 wins over their Pythagorean W-L last year and only +7 in run differential. They're due to come back to Earth hard. But I could see them finish last in the division and still potentially win 80 games.

[DumpJerry]

Originally Posted by blandman

I can't remember the last time the Yanks were this vulnerable.

Were you around in the early 1990's? They were trying their hardest to give King George a coronary. 1990 is when we had the game where Andy Hawkins no hit the White Sox, but the Sox won 4-0. Pretty embarrassing stuff.

From 1987-1992, the Yankees finished no higher than fourth place and as low as seventh.

[DumpJerry]

Originally Posted by doublem23

My pre-Spring Training gut says:

1. Tampa Bay
2. New York
3. Toronto
4. Boston
5. Baltimore

The Rays pitching is legit. I think the Yankees hang around because that's just what they do. I like Toronto, but I have to see how they play as a team. The Red Sox, I don't know. And the Orioles were +11 wins over their Pythagorean W-L last year and only +7 in run differential. They're due to come back to Earth hard. But I could see them finish last in the division and still potentially win 80 games.

The Yankees will find a way to buy stud players from crap teams in July if they are within five games of .500.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by DumpJerry

The Yankees will find a way to buy stud players from crap teams in July if they are within five games of .500.

Maybe, but money isn't as valuable any more as prospects and the Yankees have an average to slightly-above average farm system.

http://riveraveblues.com/2013/01/yan...ankings-81273/

With the new Wild Card rules it further opens up the playoff races, there are more buyers and less sellers. We'll see how it plays out.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by doublem23

My pre-Spring Training gut says:

1. Tampa Bay
2. New York
3. Toronto
4. Boston
5. Baltimore

The Rays pitching is legit. I think the Yankees hang around because that's just what they do. I like Toronto, but I have to see how they play as a team. The Red Sox, I don't know. And the Orioles were +11 wins over their Pythagorean W-L last year and only +7 in run differential. They're due to come back to Earth hard. But I could see them finish last in the division and still potentially win 80 games.

The thing about Baltimore is they're so young at so many positions, which could be good or bad, but the talent is undeniable. And they've got a bevy of guys coming up. And don't forget Manny Machado. They only got a bit of him at the end of last year. At the end of this year, he might be the best SS in baseball. Dude can flat out rake.

Originally Posted by DumpJerry

The Yankees will find a way to buy stud players from crap teams in July if they are within five games of .500.

Their system is a lot more dry than it used to be. They don't have any MLB ready talent waiting for the first time in a long time.

[RKMeibalane]

Originally Posted by DumpJerry

Were you around in the early 1990's? They were trying their hardest to give King George a coronary. 1990 is when we had the game where Andy Hawkins no hit the White Sox, but the Sox won 4-0. Pretty embarrassing stuff.

From 1987-1992, the Yankees finished no higher than fourth place and as low as seventh.

Actually, they were trying to give Gene Michael a coronary, as King George was suspended for much of that time.

[Lip Man 1]

I don't know if Baltimore is as good as they played last year or not. My gut tells me they aren't. How many extra inning games did they win in a row? Something like 18?...that's so far beyond normal as to make me think that simply won't happen again.

Lip

[SoxNation05]

Baltimore has to be consensus number 5 in the East based on pitching alone.

I think the Rays are the best team in that division. The team that is really messing up my picks is the Jays. They have all these new pieces and I liked a lot of their moves but you can't be sure how those players will play together.

I really believe this divsion will just beat the puss out of eachother and prevent anyone from really running away with it.

While I don't think the Orioles will finish over .500, it will be very interesting knowing every one of these teams have the talent to finish over .500.

[palehozenychicty]

It's definitely a lot more evenly matched than in the past. I think either the Rays or Jays will come out on top. Tampa has the best pitching on paper and Toronto has the most balanced team, barring injury.

The Yankees still have lefty power for that right field porch. They also have a great bullpen. Teams don't fear ARod. He can no longer turn a good inside fastball around. I see them hanging around, but I would be stunned if they win the division again.

The Carmines will be a little better. I think Bobby Valentine was poison from the second management considered him for the job. But their pitching staff is not good enough. I see a fourth consecutive year with no playoffs for the Local 9.

Baltimore is that one team which I thought should have overpaid for a top starter like Greinke. Then once you bring up Bundy, I think the entire staff would have rounded out. They have enough hitting to contend. I think they'll be tough again. People are doubting them. Buck has the players' respect. That goes a long way for their young talent.

[WLL1855]

For what it is worth, I just got back from Vegas and some sports books had Toronto at 4/1 for the World Series.

The same place had the Sox at 22/1 and the Cubs at 20/1 so who the heck knows.

[Viva Medias B's]

Originally Posted by WLL1855

For what it is worth, I just got back from Vegas and some sports books had Toronto at 4/1 for the World Series.

The same place had the Sox at 22/1 and the Cubs at 20/1 so who the heck knows.

We've got worse odds than the Cubs? Or are the Cubs at 20-1 because their fans keep foolishly putting money on them in Vegas?

[WLL1855]

Originally Posted by Viva Medias B's

We've got worse odds than the Cubs? Or are the Cubs at 20-1 because their fans keep foolishly putting money on them in Vegas?

I'd guess it is because Cubs fans will put money down regardless of how terrible their team is expected to be.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by Viva Medias B's

We've got worse odds than the Cubs? Or are the Cubs at 20-1 because their fans keep foolishly putting money on them in Vegas?

Their division is like 50 times easier to win. Sure, we have a much better team. But because of the Tigers we're essentially competing with the Rangers, A's, Angels, and all five teams out east for two playoff spots. There's probably a dozen teams in the AL better than anyone in the NL Central. Their odds and our odds are both pretty close to even because of this.

[BleacherBandit]

As someone who hasn't been following this offseason with any particularity, please tell me how the Rays have more offense and/or pitching than the Blue Jays?

I thought the Marlins trade / picking up RA Dickey made Toronto the clear pick for '13.