BP Sox projection. - Page 23

ChicagoG19 · #**331** 02-16-2013, 10:29 AM

There's no reason to get in a fit with these projections. BP, along with many other publications, and tv analysts will make their projections. The Sox historically have not gotten respect from the national and local media as well as about half the city itself. It doesn't bother me. I have been fortunate to be watching meaningful September baseball nearly every season since I have started watching the Sox (around '93) and I expect that to continue this year. Remember, you only need to be the #5 seed to get in.

blandman · #**332** 02-16-2013, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChicagoG19

Remember, you only need to be the #5 seed to get in.

It's so hard to go into the season thinking that way though, especially when there's teams like LAA, Texas, and Oakland getting 18 games apiece against the Astros.

johnnyg83 · #**333** 02-16-2013, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blandman

It's so hard to go into the season thinking that way though, especially when there's teams like LAA, Texas, and Oakland getting 18 games apiece against the Astros.

But they have to play each other 18 times too.

And Minnesota could be pretty bad this year for us.

KMcMahon817 · #**334** 02-16-2013, 11:54 AM

So pumped for some SOX baseball!

blandman · #**335** 02-16-2013, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyg83

But they have to play each other 18 times too.

And Minnesota could be pretty bad this year for us.

Yeah, they could be pretty bad. But even last year they weren't Astros bad. And a lot of people, for whatever reason, think they improved a bunch. I don't agree with them all that much. But I'd rather play the Astros than the Twins. And it isn't close. You might see baseball's first in division season sweep. They are REALLY bad.

***voodoochile*** · #**336** 02-16-2013, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blandman

It's so hard to go into the season thinking that way though, especially when there's teams like LAA, Texas, and Oakland getting 18 games apiece against the Astros.

It's not their fault the Sox can't beat the Royals...

blandman · #**337** 02-16-2013, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by voodoochile

It's not their fault the Sox can't beat the Royals...

Haha...well, beating the royals this year is gonna be a little harder too.

mahagga73 · #**338** 02-16-2013, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blandman

Yeah, they could be pretty bad. But even last year they weren't Astros bad. And a lot of people, for whatever reason, think they improved a bunch. I don't agree with them all that much. But I'd rather play the Astros than the Twins. And it isn't close. You might see baseball's first in division season sweep. They are REALLY bad.

I have seen the breakdown of the Twins roster and they are going to need a miracle to be even respectable. I wouldn't be surprised if the Astros are as good as they are this year.

mahagga73 · #**339** 02-16-2013, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blandman

And in divisions where the talent is close, evaluate as such. In divisions not as close, evaluate as such as well. It's why the Tigers have such a high percentage chance of winning the division this season according to BP. Talent in the division is not very close.

Yes, but they are off 6 or more games every year for the Sox. No winning pitcher in the rotation? 2 last place teams projected last year won their divisions. The machine needs an oil change and a tuneup, and maybe put out to pasture cause it sucks. I'm sure all their other work is great and teams take it seriously and all , and I know a lot of the people there get hired by teams, but that is not what a lot of us were saying. Another poster took offense to the extreme, like we were denigrating the publication, and accused us of being idiots for criticizing their yearly laughable projections . The projection machine is a lemon, and when it is that far off to where you can draw numbers out of a hat and be more accurate, it deserves to be questioned and/or ridiculed. Nothing to do with BP as a whole. They need to make a better predictor machine. If their predictions went the other way and made the Sox out to be way better than what they were every year it would be the same thing.

Noneck · #**340** 02-17-2013, 08:02 AM

Betting line o/u 80 1/2.

blandman · #**341** 02-17-2013, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mahagga73

Yes, but they are off 6 or more games every year for the Sox. No winning pitcher in the rotation? 2 last place teams projected last year won their divisions. The machine needs an oil change and a tuneup, and maybe put out to pasture cause it sucks. I'm sure all their other work is great and teams take it seriously and all , and I know a lot of the people there get hired by teams, but that is not what a lot of us were saying. Another poster took offense to the extreme, like we were denigrating the publication, and accused us of being idiots for criticizing their yearly laughable projections . The projection machine is a lemon, and when it is that far off to where you can draw numbers out of a hat and be more accurate, it deserves to be questioned and/or ridiculed. Nothing to do with BP as a whole. They need to make a better predictor machine. If their predictions went the other way and made the Sox out to be way better than what they were every year it would be the same thing.

Those two teams that won their divisions did so with players not projected on the Major League roster though. And while you can say that any team has that potential, I don't think I'm going on a limb by saying there are no players in our minor leagues that will be ready this year to be impact players.

SephClone89 · #**342** 02-18-2013, 02:42 PM

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...g-projections/

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs tackles the issue of PECOTA and the Sox.

mahagga73 · #**343** 02-18-2013, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blandman

Those two teams that won their divisions did so with players not projected on the Major League roster though. And while you can say that any team has that potential, I don't think I'm going on a limb by saying there are no players in our minor leagues that will be ready this year to be impact players.

You might be right about the Sox . Maybe someone can give a list of players that are even close to being ready to come up.

CoopaLoop · #**344** 02-18-2013, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SephClone89

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...g-projections/

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs tackles the issue of PECOTA and the Sox.

This is pretty interesting stuff.

The difference in injuries compared the rest of baseball is pretty amazing.

DSpivack · #**345** 02-18-2013, 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoopaLoop

This is pretty interesting stuff.

The difference in injuries compared the rest of baseball is pretty amazing.

Perhaps we've been uttering the wrong line here all along.

Not Coop'll fix him, but that they (pitcher's arms, anyway) were never broken in the first place because of him!

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