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  #16  
Old 05-31-2014, 09:57 PM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
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Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
What in the world makes you think a guy out of HS will be in the Majors in 2 years? What is the average development time, even for 1st round HS pitchers in the minors? It surely has to be longer than that.
You would think it would have to be about three years, wouldn't you? I think only one high school pitcher drafted in 2010 has debuted yet.
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  #17  
Old 06-01-2014, 08:57 AM
soxfanreggie soxfanreggie is offline
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Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
You would think it would have to be about three years, wouldn't you? I think only one high school pitcher drafted in 2010 has debuted yet.
I would think it would be 3 or 4 years and depend on what they came up as - starter or reliever.

I think the Sox take Rodon if available. If the Marlins go pitcher, they might grab him since he's Cuban-American. Then, I think the Sox plan about is Kolek.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Casey Gillaspie. Not that the Sox need another 1B/DH guy, but I wonder if he'll make the Majors like his brother. Having seen him play a few times, he's definitely a solid hitter. Maybe the interesting thing would be a game with John and Jordan Danks plus Conor and Casey Gillaspie all on the field together.
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  #18  
Old 06-01-2014, 10:27 AM
canOcorn canOcorn is offline
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Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
You would think it would have to be about three years, wouldn't you? I think only one high school pitcher drafted in 2010 has debuted yet.
It all depends on the kids stuff and body makeup. The 2011 draft saw high school kids Dylan Bundy and Jose Fernandez make their debut's in 2012 and 2013, respectively. Archie Bradley would have made his debut by now if not injured earlier this year. I know Kershaw spent just under two years and about 200 innings in the minors. Those are just a few guys off the top of my head.

I'd speculate that the over/under on Aiken and Kolek would be two years (obviously if they stay healthy).
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  #19  
Old 06-01-2014, 12:26 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by canOcorn View Post
It all depends on the kids stuff and body makeup. The 2011 draft saw high school kids Dylan Bundy and Jose Fernandez make their debut's in 2012 and 2013, respectively. Archie Bradley would have made his debut by now if not injured earlier this year. I know Kershaw spent just under two years and about 200 innings in the minors. Those are just a few guys off the top of my head.

I'd speculate that the over/under on Aiken and Kolek would be two years (obviously if they stay healthy).
Aiken, from what I have read, seems to be more polished and could be at best 2 years away from the majors. Kolek, on the other hand, is being drafted high purely on his triple digit fastball and breaking ball. He has limited control at this point and is said to be more of a project. I can't see him winning more than 15-16 games in the majors for another 5 years.
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  #20  
Old 06-02-2014, 11:10 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Aiken has the polish and arm to make it out of the minors in 3 years, possibly less. He has unquestionably become the guy I want after watching video and reading scouting reports.
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  #21  
Old 06-02-2014, 11:32 AM
DSpivack DSpivack is offline
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Notes on the Sox and the draft:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/0...rade+Rumors%29
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  #22  
Old 06-02-2014, 12:07 PM
EMachine10 EMachine10 is offline
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Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
Aiken has the polish and arm to make it out of the minors in 3 years, possibly less. He has unquestionably become the guy I want after watching video and reading scouting reports.
I think he goes #1...
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  #23  
Old 06-02-2014, 01:34 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
Aiken has the polish and arm to make it out of the minors in 3 years, possibly less. He has unquestionably become the guy I want after watching video and reading scouting reports.
Yup, I just don't think there is anyway Aiken falls to us.

For it to happen, basically, Rodon has to go 1 and Jackson 2.

Kolek has incredible potential, but he is 4 years in the minors, maybe comes up at 22-23.

It is more likely Rodon falls to us. I am hearing buzz that some teams don't know if he has the endurance to be a full time starter now, maybe a closer with his stuff. I never worried about it much, and stories and concerns like these tend to run wild around draft time.

I have no doubt we would take Aiken over Kolek, but I don't know if we would take Rodon over Kolek.
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  #24  
Old 06-02-2014, 01:47 PM
mzh mzh is offline
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Less than three months ago, Rodon was a future ace with a floor as a 3 or 4 who would be in the bigs within 2 years. Now he might not even be a starter? I don't buy it at all. It's the same thing that happened to Jadaveon Clowney- he's been sitting at the top for so long that people start to disproportionally focus on the negatives. I'd still be pretty surprised if Rodon isn't pitching for Houston or Miami in a year or two.
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  #25  
Old 06-02-2014, 02:41 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mzh View Post
Less than three months ago, Rodon was a future ace with a floor as a 3 or 4 who would be in the bigs within 2 years. Now he might not even be a starter? I don't buy it at all. It's the same thing that happened to Jadaveon Clowney- he's been sitting at the top for so long that people start to disproportionally focus on the negatives. I'd still be pretty surprised if Rodon isn't pitching for Houston or Miami in a year or two.
If I had to put money on it, I would say your top 3 picks, in order:

Aiken
Rodon
Kolek

I agree with you, it happens from time to time, teams will spread a concern to try and get a team infront of them to balk at a player so he drops. Heck, it could even be the Sox playing this game, or it could be some media thing, who knows. If Its my, my top 3 are:

Aiken
Rodon
Coinflip Jackson and Kolek... If you think Jackson can stick at C, his bat is a monster. If not, go with Kolek. Both will need time.
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  #26  
Old 06-02-2014, 03:27 PM
canOcorn canOcorn is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
Yup, I just don't think there is anyway Aiken falls to us.

For it to happen, basically, Rodon has to go 1 and Jackson 2.

Kolek has incredible potential, but he is 4 years in the minors, maybe comes up at 22-23.

It is more likely Rodon falls to us. I am hearing buzz that some teams don't know if he has the endurance to be a full time starter now, maybe a closer with his stuff. I never worried about it much, and stories and concerns like these tend to run wild around draft time.

I have no doubt we would take Aiken over Kolek, but I don't know if we would take Rodon over Kolek.
Kolek isn't spending 4 years in the minors without an injury/some other unreasonable circumstance. And I agree Aiken is more polished and I'd take him #1.
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  #27  
Old 06-02-2014, 10:32 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Originally Posted by canOcorn View Post
Kolek isn't spending 4 years in the minors without an injury/some other unreasonable circumstance. And I agree Aiken is more polished and I'd take him #1.
I don't know, 4 years makes him what, 22-23. Still pretty young. The positive is his Fastball and Curveball are close to MLB ready, but his change up, slider, and control, are all works in progress. He doesn't need to grow into his body which is nice, but he is not projected to burn through the minors.
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  #28  
Old 06-03-2014, 04:42 PM
DSpivack DSpivack is offline
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MLB Sox draft preview:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/cws/...&vkey=news_cws
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  #29  
Old 06-03-2014, 05:12 PM
shes shes is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
What in the world makes you think a guy out of HS will be in the Majors in 2 years? What is the average development time, even for 1st round HS pitchers in the minors? It surely has to be longer than that.
I was curious about this so I went back and looked at HS pitchers taken in the first round (excluding supplemental picks and players who didn't sign) since 2000. A ton of them washed out and never made the majors, including an alarming number of top 10 picks. Here's the list of those who made it and how long it took:

2000

Sean Burnett - 48 months
Boof Bonser - 72
Adam Wainwright - 63

2001

Gavin Floyd - 39
Macay McBride - 49

2002

Adam Loewen - 48
Zack Greinke - 24
Scott Kazmir - 26
Cole Hamels - 47
Matt Cain - 39

2003

John Danks - 46
Chad Billingsley - 36

2004

Mark Rogers - 75
Homer Bailey - 36
Scott Elbert - 51
Phil Highes - 35
Kyle Waldrop - 87
Eric Hurley - 48

2005

Chris Volstad - 37
Aaron Thompson - 74

2006

Kershaw - 23
Jeremy Jeffress - 51
Kyle Drabeck - 51

2007

Jarrod Parker - 51
Madison Bumgarner - 27
Phillipe Aumont - 62
Blake Beaven - 49
Chris Withrow - 72
Rick Porcello - 22

2008

Ethan Martin - 62

2009

Zack Wheeler - 48
Jacob Turner - 25
Shelby Miller - 39

2010

No first rounders have debuted

2011

Dylan Bundy - 15 months
Jose Fernandez - 22 months

And that's it. From draft day to the Show, it's an average of 45 months for HS pitchers drafted in the first round. There have only been a handful of guys who've made it up around the 2-year mark, and most are All-Stars.
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  #30  
Old 06-04-2014, 05:48 PM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shes View Post
I was curious about this so I went back and looked at HS pitchers taken in the first round (excluding supplemental picks and players who didn't sign) since 2000. A ton of them washed out and never made the majors, including an alarming number of top 10 picks. Here's the list of those who made it and how long it took:

Adam Wainwright - 63
Zack Greinke - 24
Scott Kazmir - 26
Cole Hamels - 47
Matt Cain - 39
Homer Bailey - 36
Kershaw - 23
Madison Bumgarner - 27
Jose Fernandez - 22 months

And that's it. From draft day to the Show, it's an average of 45 months for HS pitchers drafted in the first round. There have only been a handful of guys who've made it up around the 2-year mark, and most are All-Stars.
On the other hand, most of the studs show up in a couple of years. I'm leery of high school pitchers. I'd take Aiken though.
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