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  #76  
Old 05-05-2019, 07:35 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
Guess which team is #30 in player development, at least according to this research. It's so bad that the Sox are nearly twice as bad as the team ranked #28!

And here's part 2 of the research. Last in developing pitching and catching!

Not using analytics seriously and hiring buddies is working so well.....
In other words, you agree that the problem with the Sox organization isn't all about Rick Hahn.

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Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
There may be 2 arms in the org. that project to be a 1 or a 2. Minaya's the best they can come up with for the pen after drafting all of those relievers and trading for the rule 5 guys over the last few years.
Which specific relievers who we've drafted or traded for got as a Rule 5 pick up are supposed to be anchors to our bullpen now in May 2019?

Burdi is just coming back from TJS. Maybe he'll be here by September, but you can't seriously mean him right now. Tyler Johnson had a great season last year, but is still in High A. Hunter Schyver is off to a great doing well, but is only in AA. Jace Fry was drafted 3rd round and is pretty decent. Bummer? Maybe he'll be of some use to us.
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  #77  
Old 05-06-2019, 11:16 AM
GoSox2K3 GoSox2K3 is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile
You wonít like the answer but we will know more in the next few years.

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When will the rebuild be final? Good question. Everyone will have their own answer to that one. And I agree on one thing: The team can't keep using the rebuild as an excuse for losing.

Also, even if the team becomes somewhat respectable by inching over .500, that doesn't qualify the rebuild as successful. The team will have demonstrate sustainable results. When will that happen? No one knows; fans can only hope. But with one losing season after another, it sometimes hard to hope.

Instead of focusing on calendar years as deadlines for the rebuild, I find that it makes more sense to focus on the progress of our top talent. When people say we must be competitive by 2019 or by 2020, that can be somewhat arbitrary. What matters to me is whether the top talent is on track and making progress or are they stalling/regressing/heading to bust territory.

Injuries are very disappointing and delay the timeline of certain players' arrival. But, this happens to every team - unless someone has actual stats (not just anecdotal evidence) to show otherwise. In that regard, I just don't get the frequent claims on WSI that Burdi and Burger are failed picks before they've even come back from their injuries since they both had injuries that many players come back from.

IMO, we should have a better idea of whether this rebuild is on track next season when we should have Kopech, Cease, Burdi, Collins, and perhaps even Robert joining Moncada, Anderson, and Jimenez on the major league roster. Even then, I don't expect most of them to take MLB by storm when they get there. So, I expect more frustration and growing pains next season too as this next wave arrives.


The rest of the OF prospects and Madrigal are either just one month into their AA promotion or are still in High A. So, we probably won't see those guys until 2021. Burger and Hansen are total wild cards IMO - let's see how they do this season.
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  #78  
Old 05-06-2019, 12:36 PM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
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I don't think there is any question now that you are looking at 2021 at the earliest before things turn around.

Many including myself were hoping next year would be the year...but with the pitching staff in disarray, little help in the minor leagues from that standpoint and the Sox refusal to pay premium prices for the best available guys at the big league level who become free agents, now you are looking at 2021, as I said.

Five years into a rebuild (and counting) if they are lucky.
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  #79  
Old 05-06-2019, 12:52 PM
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I don't think there is any question now that you are looking at 2021 at the earliest before things turn around.

Many including myself were hoping next year would be the year...but with the pitching staff in disarray, little help in the minor leagues from that standpoint and the Sox refusal to pay premium prices for the best available guys at the big league level who become free agents, now you are looking at 2021, as I said.

Five years into a rebuild (and counting) if they are lucky.
How many more years can this be pushed back? This now is the third year since the rebuild began, and they've all said, "We'll be good in two years." So three years is becoming five years. How do we know five years won't become seven? Rock bottom of the entire league in every aspect may not be far away.
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  #80  
Old 05-06-2019, 01:12 PM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Originally Posted by thomas35forever View Post
How many more years can this be pushed back? This now is the third year since the rebuild began, and they've all said, "We'll be good in two years." So three years is becoming five years. How do we know five years won't become seven? Rock bottom of the entire league in every aspect may not be far away.
Who said we'd be good in two years?
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  #81  
Old 05-06-2019, 01:16 PM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
Who said we'd be good in two years?
Well, Rick Hahn did. He said in the 2016 the timeline of a rebuild is usually five years and then last year he said "I think we've already adjusted that time period for the better."

https://www.mlb.com/news/rick-hahn-s...ing-c267029920
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  #82  
Old 05-06-2019, 01:23 PM
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Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
Well, Rick Hahn did. He said in the 2016 the timeline of a rebuild is usually five years and then last year he said "I think we've already adjusted that time period for the better."

https://www.mlb.com/news/rick-hahn-s...ing-c267029920
Okay that was probably based on Kopech and Rodon both being healthy this year too though.
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  #83  
Old 05-06-2019, 01:32 PM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
Okay that was probably based on Kopech and Rodon both being healthy this year too though.
Wasn't Rodon still recovering from shoulder surgery at that point though? He has a track record of injuries too.

One of the things the Sox have a history of doing, and the thing I'm afraid that they're doing now during the rebuild, is it seems like they put the roster together and say "Well if everything goes right..." And of course, things seldom always go right.

I've mentioned this before but they have put themselves in a position where they NEED almost all of their prospects to click and produce at the majors. That's kind of a precarious spot to be because as we have seen just a few injuries can push the timeline back, which could also shorten the window for contention as well.
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  #84  
Old 05-06-2019, 01:42 PM
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Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
Wasn't Rodon still recovering from shoulder surgery at that point though? He has a track record of injuries too.

One of the things the Sox have a history of doing, and the thing I'm afraid that they're doing now during the rebuild, is it seems like they put the roster together and say "Well if everything goes right..." And of course, things seldom always go right.

I've mentioned this before but they have put themselves in a position where they NEED almost all of their prospects to click and produce at the majors. That's kind of a precarious spot to be because as we have seen just a few injuries can push the timeline back, which could also shorten the window for contention as well.
They have a fair amount of depth. Right now it doesn't look that way because of major injuries to three top end prospects and none of the B-tier guys stepping up at AAA so far, but there's a lot more coming and from a position standpoint things are actually going fairly well.
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  #85  
Old 05-06-2019, 01:57 PM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
They have a fair amount of depth. Right now it doesn't look that way because of major injuries to three top end prospects and none of the B-tier guys stepping up at AAA so far, but there's a lot more coming and from a position standpoint things are actually going fairly well.
Really? Because the pitching depth I see is Dylan Cease, a reduced Kopech in 2020 and then a whole lot of question marks. I'm not sure you can count on a full season from Rodon and this is kind of a make or break year for Lopez and Giolito.

As for positional depth, it looks like the Sox have Moncada and Anderson as anchors but beyond that, who? Maybe Robert but let's see how he does in a full season at AA. Then who? Collins? Maybe? Madrigal maybe? Then who? Even with Moncada, Anderson, Jimenez and Robert, I don't think anyone of them could be considered a sure thing.
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  #86  
Old 05-06-2019, 02:02 PM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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There are no sure things...
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  #87  
Old 05-08-2019, 08:06 PM
MISoxfan MISoxfan is offline
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I don't hate Rick Hahn, but I was against the rebuild. If this is a nonsense thread for complaining then I'll jump in.

Catcher - 33 years old - Tyler Flowers - .297/.357/.469
Catcher - 27 years old - Omar Narvaez -.284/.378/.461
1st Base - 32 years old - Jose Abreu - .279/.349/.529
2nd Base - 28 years old - Marcus Semien - .289/.378/.430
3rd Base - 20 years old - Fernando Tatis Jr. - .300/.360/.550
Shortstop - 26 years old - Tim Anderson - .331/.362/.516
Right Field - 30 years old - Adam Eaton - .296/.353/.415
Center Field - 28 years old - Leury Garcia - .299/.346/386
Left Field - 28 years old - Avisail Garcia - .287/.344/.496
Utility - 27 years old - Yolmer Sanchez - .229/.301/.265

With staff anchored by Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and the admittedly currently injured Rodon.

Collins would in the farm system and they'd likely still sign Robert. Who knows how the rest of the draft would have played out.

There's no DH and center is admittedly a bit weak, but those players would only have a payroll of $75-million. Think they could fill out the bullpen, back of the rotation and a DH with what's left? A few smart FA moves could have made that a difference.

Obviously TA isn't going to hit .330 all season and Leury/Flowers are probably hitting .270 and not .300, but there are no crazy flukes shown up there (fight me on Avi, we'll see at the end of the season). That team would have contended in the AL Central last year and would be even better this year with Tatis Jr.

With the exception of the catching tandem and Sanchez, anyone of those players has good odds of putting up 3-4 WAR this season.

I don't actually believe that this team is a world beater, but we were able to acquire the pieces we did because we had a solid core full of players that other teams wanted. We also let Tatis Jr. and to a lesser extent Semien go for nothing. Flowers and Avi seem to have improved after leaving. I just think that a better front office would have ended up in a better place with the pieces we had then. Maybe you could do this with hindsight for every team?

I just hope the rebuild produces a team that blows that one away.
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  #88  
Old 05-08-2019, 08:20 PM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MISoxfan View Post
I don't hate Rick Hahn, but I was against the rebuild. If this is a nonsense thread for complaining then I'll jump in.

Catcher - 33 years old - Tyler Flowers - .297/.357/.469
Catcher - 27 years old - Omar Narvaez -.284/.378/.461
1st Base - 32 years old - Jose Abreu - .279/.349/.529
2nd Base - 28 years old - Marcus Semien - .289/.378/.430
3rd Base - 20 years old - Fernando Tatis Jr. - .300/.360/.550
Shortstop - 26 years old - Tim Anderson - .331/.362/.516
Right Field - 30 years old - Adam Eaton - .296/.353/.415
Center Field - 28 years old - Leury Garcia - .299/.346/386
Left Field - 28 years old - Avisail Garcia - .287/.344/.496
Utility - 27 years old - Yolmer Sanchez - .229/.301/.265

With staff anchored by Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and the admittedly currently injured Rodon.

Collins would in the farm system and they'd likely still sign Robert. Who knows how the rest of the draft would have played out.

There's no DH and center is admittedly a bit weak, but those players would only have a payroll of $75-million. Think they could fill out the bullpen, back of the rotation and a DH with what's left? A few smart FA moves could have made that a difference.

Obviously TA isn't going to hit .330 all season and Leury/Flowers are probably hitting .270 and not .300, but there are no crazy flukes shown up there (fight me on Avi, we'll see at the end of the season). That team would have contended in the AL Central last year and would be even better this year with Tatis Jr.

With the exception of the catching tandem and Sanchez, anyone of those players has good odds of putting up 3-4 WAR this season.

I don't actually believe that this team is a world beater, but we were able to acquire the pieces we did because we had a solid core full of players that other teams wanted. We also let Tatis Jr. and to a lesser extent Semien go for nothing. Flowers and Avi seem to have improved after leaving. I just think that a better front office would have ended up in a better place with the pieces we had then. Maybe you could do this with hindsight for every team?

I just hope the rebuild produces a team that blows that one away.
One quibble is Tatis was not traded as part of the rebuild but well before the rebuild began so it's a bit of a stretch to pencil him in there. He was traded for a supposed veteran starter to anchor the starting rotation behind Sale and Quintana - as was Semien, just for a bat, not a pitcher. Take him out of your lineup and it looks a lot worse. Plus Sale would be in his final year unless the Sox were willing to sign him for the 5/150 he got from Boston and I don't see that happening.

Also you are expecting Avisail to continue hitting as he currently is and we waited years for him to become consistent, and he never did. His career OPS is a LOT lower than that (.746) as is Flowers (.712) who also has a .420 BABIP.

You've picked and chosen which trades to allow and which trades to disallow to make this. It's a cherry picked idealized concept that demands absolute perfection from Hahn and everyone be having major career years to make it work.

Last edited by voodoochile; 05-08-2019 at 08:31 PM.
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  #89  
Old 05-08-2019, 10:28 PM
MISoxfan MISoxfan is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
One quibble is Tatis was not traded as part of the rebuild but well before the rebuild began so it's a bit of a stretch to pencil him in there. He was traded for a supposed veteran starter to anchor the starting rotation behind Sale and Quintana - as was Semien, just for a bat, not a pitcher. Take him out of your lineup and it looks a lot worse. Plus Sale would be in his final year unless the Sox were willing to sign him for the 5/150 he got from Boston and I don't see that happening.

Also you are expecting Avisail to continue hitting as he currently is and we waited years for him to become consistent, and he never did. His career OPS is a LOT lower than that (.746) as is Flowers (.712) who also has a .420 BABIP.

You've picked and chosen which trades to allow and which trades to disallow to make this. It's a cherry picked idealized concept that demands absolute perfection from Hahn and everyone be having major career years to make it work.

I didn't cherry pick any trades - that would be the lineup from simply standing pat. I would agree that by time the rebuild started the Tatis train had left the station. It's more of a lament about talent evaluation. A different front office may have kept that team together and not fallen for the Shield's ruse. I'm not saying it was me, though. I was for that trade at the time. Semien was for Samardzija who I always thought was overrated.

Also, Flowers has had an OPS of .775 over 3 years with Atlanta. I think it's safe to say he improved offensively, but unfortunately for him it was only in the twilight of his career. As for Avi, we'll see. In my opinion he showed flashes last year and I think he'll end up somewhere better than his career averages and worse than 2017.
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  #90  
Old 05-09-2019, 12:07 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Letting Avi walk after he finally showed legitimate power in his bat was a stupid move. Iím guessing it was about the money, because I canít bear the thought of this front office actually thinking that regression candidate extraordinaire Daniel Palka was going to be a more useful player than Avi this year.
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