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  #166  
Old 07-19-2019, 11:41 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Hansen is pretty much done, he isnít even looking like a quality reliever anymore. Atleast Groome has explosive stuff, and the off the field issues have. It come in to play with him as a minor leaguer. Injuries sure, but itís time to let the crap as a kid go. A guy with off the field issues closed a World Series for us.
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  #167  
Old 07-20-2019, 07:24 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Are negotiating windows still allowed? If so, maybe we should explore the idea of trading for Bumgarner. Since he canít block a trade to the White Sox, this may be a decent fallback option for the Giants if other trade options fall apart.

Letís get a 24-hour window next Thursday when the Giants are off. Pitch the following contract offer to Bumgarner:

5 years/$130 million guaranteed, with vesting/team options that could bring it up to 10 years/$205 million.

1) $5 million assignment bonus payable in 2019 upon completion of trade

2) 2020: $15.5 million
2021: $17.5 million
2022: $20 million
2023 and 2024: $23.5 million

2025-2029: Annual vesting/team options for $15 million that vest if Bumgarner starts at least 25 games the previous season; $5 million buyouts for each year, with all buyouts guaranteed.

$5 million assignment bonus + $100 million in salaries + $25 million in guaranteed buyouts gets Bumgarner to a $26 million AAV through his age-34 season and gives the White Sox the ability to maneuver $30 million of it to a more team-friendly payment schedule. Basically, the option buyouts can be thought of as $25 million in deferred salary, and Bumgarner has a chance to earn an extra $10 million per year on top of those buyouts if he can remain durable.

If Bumgarner says yes, then proceed to work out a trade package with the Giants. Let them choose one of Luis Basabe or Luis Gonzalez, plus Gavin Sheets, plus Bryce Bush. Let the Giants know that if they canít find a better prospect return, our offer is still on the table until the deadline passes.
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  #168  
Old 07-20-2019, 08:47 AM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post

If Bumgarner says yes, then proceed to work out a trade package with the Giants. Let them choose one of Luis Basabe or Luis Gonzalez, plus Gavin Sheets, plus Bryce Bush. Let the Giants know that if they can’t find a better prospect return, our offer is still on the table until the deadline passes.
No more contrivances please. Play player market value and sign him if you want him. Don't send a bunch of prospects that we can't afford to send. This org is close to 10 pitchers short, not one.
  #169  
Old 07-20-2019, 09:30 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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No more contrivances please. Play player market value and sign him if you want him. Don't send a bunch of prospects that we can't afford to send. This org is close to 10 pitchers short, not one.
Thatís why I didnít include pitching in the deal.

The assembled outfield talent is an organizational strength that can absorb a loss easier than any other area, Bush is roadblocked by Moncada, and Sheets will be surpassed by Vaughn within a year. Are they talented players with upside? Yes, but itís going to take some talent to get this done.

Is that contract fair market value? I think so. I have seen some articles talking about Bumgarner getting only 4 years. Besides, Bumgarner would just say no to it if he thought he was going to do better in free agency. At the very least, even if Bumgarner nixes it or San Francisco gets a better prospect package, we get to make our contract offer 3 months earlier than everyone else.
  #170  
Old 07-20-2019, 09:47 AM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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You donít trade a big package for Bum. You sign him in the offseason and use the prospects to get another pitcher.
  #171  
Old 07-20-2019, 10:27 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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You donít trade a big package for Bum. You sign him in the offseason and use the prospects to get another pitcher.
I think you can get Greinke for barely anything in terms of prospects if you eat his whole salary. If you make the moves now instead of the offseason, you give those guys a head start on the league switch and acclimating to the team. Thatís why you backload Bumgarnerís 2020 and 2021 salaries. Plus, you donít repeat the Machado situation by allowing someone else to come along and swipe these guys. Just eliminate the competition before it gets a chance to ruin the plan. Plus, if we still canít win games in August and September after acquiring those two guys, then we will have all the proof we need that Renteria is not the answer.

Itís time to get proactive and stop taking the path of least resistance. If the plan is to contend next year, then you canít go into the season without two major rotation upgrades. Otherwise, just call 2020 another development year and donít even bother throwing money at free agents this winter. Save the money that gets poured into dead-enders like Nova, Alonso, Castillo, and Jay. Use it the next year instead.
  #172  
Old 07-20-2019, 10:27 AM
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That’s why I didn’t include pitching in the deal.

The assembled outfield talent is an organizational strength that can absorb a loss easier than any other area, Bush is roadblocked by Moncada, and Sheets will be surpassed by Vaughn within a year. Are they talented players with upside? Yes, but it’s going to take some talent to get this done.

Is that contract fair market value? I think so. I have seen some articles talking about Bumgarner getting only 4 years. Besides, Bumgarner would just say no to it if he thought he was going to do better in free agency. At the very least, even if Bumgarner nixes it or San Francisco gets a better prospect package, we get to make our contract offer 3 months earlier than everyone else.
And they need that organizational strength to acquire the pitching they need which is at least 10 players short. As for Bumgarner, for him to do this, he'd have to want to sign with the Sox anyway, or he'd just hit the open market. So let him hit the open market. Or, if he has to be enticed to do this, that means the Sox will pay him MORE than market value. That may be the case, but again, do it when he hits the open market.
They need all assets on hand to bring in a bunch of young pitching into this org.
  #173  
Old 07-20-2019, 10:38 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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And they need that organizational strength to acquire the pitching they need which is at least 10 players short. As for Bumgarner, for him to do this, he'd have to want to sign with the Sox anyway, or he'd just hit the open market. So let him hit the open market. Or, if he has to be enticed to do this, that means the Sox will pay him MORE than market value. That may be the case, but again, do it when he hits the open market.
The Sox have 3 starters (best case) and 4 relievers (and that includes Colome with 1 year left and Evan Marshall, a stretch). That's 6 short. Plus depth = 10 and that may not be enough. Where doe they get those 10 if not from use of organizational depth.
Itís not about enticing anybody. Itís about getting our offer out there and beating other potential suitors to the punch. If he says no, then we know to target someone else over the winter. Slow-playing to try and squeeze every last dollar of surplus value out of the Machado deal ended up making it a non-deal. We have reached the point where we have the farm depth and the payroll room to muscle our way into some of these discussions for premier talent, so letís get some things done. Either that, or go the other way; sell at the deadline, and keep the payroll low.
  #174  
Old 07-20-2019, 10:49 AM
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And they need that organizational strength to acquire the pitching they need which is at least 10 players short. As for Bumgarner, for him to do this, he'd have to want to sign with the Sox anyway, or he'd just hit the open market. So let him hit the open market. Or, if he has to be enticed to do this, that means the Sox will pay him MORE than market value. That may be the case, but again, do it when he hits the open market.
They need all assets on hand to bring in a bunch of young pitching into this org.
Weíre not acquiring 10 more pitchers from the outside. You may not like it, but guys like Jace Fry and Jose Ruiz are going to be given an extended look up here. Iím pretty sure that we will see guys like Thyago Vieira, Carson Fulmer, Caleb Frare, Ian Hamilton, and Ryan Burr back up here as well. And thatís just the guys on-hand who have already pitched in the majors.
  #175  
Old 07-20-2019, 10:52 AM
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Weíre not acquiring 10 more pitchers from the outside. You may not like it, but guys like Jace Fry and Jose Ruiz are going to be given an extended look up here. Iím pretty sure that we will see guys like Thyago Vieira, Carson Fulmer, Caleb Frare, Ian Hamilton, and Ryan Burr back up here as well. And thatís just the guys on-hand who have already pitched in the majors.
Thompson, Foster and Walsh will all eventually get their chance, IMO.
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  #176  
Old 07-20-2019, 11:07 AM
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Thompson, Foster and Walsh will all eventually get their chance, IMO.
Exactly. So will Burdi. So will Heuer. So will some of the guys who are on the shelf with injuries.

If we get the high-end starting pitching we sorely need, so will some of the starting pitchers. Carlos Rodon immediately comes to mind. I would just go ahead and commit Rodon to the bullpen once he gets back. With only 2 years of service remaining before he’s gone, what’s the point of having him start? As a reliever, he won’t be missed as much when he makes his inevitable trip to the 60-day DL and is replaced on the 40-man by Juan Minaya’s 5th or 6th call-up. As for the others, Cease, Lopez, Dunning, and Kopech can’t all secure rotation spots.
  #177  
Old 07-20-2019, 11:08 AM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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...the pitching they need which is at least 10 players short.
Here are 10 who would be in the big-league picture right now if not for injuries. I fully expect half of them to contribute next year.

Rodon, Kopech, Dunning, Lambert, Flores
Hamilton, Burr, Frare, Burdi, Johnson

Here are another 8 who have taken a step forward this year. Odds are that one of them is useful next year.

Stiever, Pilkington, Henzman, Parke
Foster, Medeiros (in a relief role), Heuer, Schryver

They do need to bring in pitching, but I think 3-4 established, competent major leaguers are enough.

P.S. I'm not counting on anything from Vieira, Fulmer, Thompson, or Walsh.
  #178  
Old 07-20-2019, 11:14 AM
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Exactly. So will Burdi. So will Heuer. So will some of the guys who are on the shelf with injuries.

If we get the high-end starting pitching we sorely need, so will some of the starting pitchers. Carlos Rodon immediately comes to mind. I would just go ahead and commit Rodon to the bullpen once he gets back. With only 2 years of service remaining before heís gone, whatís the point of having him start? As a reliever, he wonít be missed as much when he makes his inevitable trip to the 60-day DL and is replaced on the 40-man by Juan Minayaís 5th or 6th call-up. As for the others, Cease, Lopez, Dunning, and Kopech canít all secure rotation spots.
Why not?
  #179  
Old 07-20-2019, 12:03 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Why not?
Iím assuming that Giolito has a spot locked down regardless of what happens the rest of this year. Showing that kind of dominance buys a lot of wiggle room for him if he slumps at any point.

Iím thinking that at least one starter will be imported, although if Reinsdorf goes cheap again, this may be someone who can be kicked out of the rotation.

If the main rotation ďsplashĒ is a sub-$10 million AAV mediocrity who fizzles out, and the team goes 4-for-4 on all those guys panning out, I suppose they could all be in the rotation. Thatís a tall order, though.
  #180  
Old 07-20-2019, 12:33 PM
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Iím assuming that Giolito has a spot locked down regardless of what happens the rest of this year. Showing that kind of dominance buys a lot of wiggle room for him if he slumps at any point.

Iím thinking that at least one starter will be imported, although if Reinsdorf goes cheap again, this may be someone who can be kicked out of the rotation.

If the main rotation ďsplashĒ is a sub-$10 million AAV mediocrity who fizzles out, and the team goes 4-for-4 on all those guys panning out, I suppose they could all be in the rotation. Thatís a tall order, though.
I'll be pretty surprised if Cease and Kopech don't make it and won't be shocked if Lopez does. Only question mark then is Dunning who yes the jury is out on, but there are other guys coming too. Still, I agree the Sox will probably acquire another pitcher if for no other reason then it's good to have a veteran who can lead the way and be an emotional anchor for the staff and team. Of course by next year Lopez and Giolito will be on year 3 and Cease will be on year two, so there will be less immediate need for that kind of support (hopefully).

Also, remember, this isn't going 4/4. They have already lost Fulmer, Rodon, Hansen and all the guys from Charlotte who were projected as possible #5 starters two years ago (Stephens, Adams and Guerrero), so this is more like going 4/9 and that's not an unheard of number for advanced pitching prospects.
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