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  #331  
Old 12-08-2019, 02:54 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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You can't take a small sample size and then make it smaller by cherry picking and removing the worst at bats and say "he's this player now". LOL.


Marcell Ozuna batted. 1.000 in the at bats he got hits! He's that player!

Ozuna is an above average player that the scout analytics say should be better. It's debatable who's right. But there won't be a year over the next four where he won't be marginally better than Jayson Heyward.
  #332  
Old 12-08-2019, 02:59 PM
longtimefan longtimefan is offline
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As much as I want him...that sounds like about $50M more than he’s worth. Not sure the Sox should (let alone can) commit to anything like that.
There is no way the Sox would commit to the amount of offer Cole got from the Yankees for a pitcher. Well not as long as JR calls the shots.
  #333  
Old 12-08-2019, 03:00 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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YOU'RE HELPING THE CUBS GET BACK TO THE WORLD SERIES.
That **** got laid to rest after Trevor Bauer got shellacked in the 10th inning of Game 7 in 2016. That day sucked out a lot of the joy I used to derive from the game of baseball, and it sucked it out permanently. At this point, the only thing—the ONLY thing—on my radar is seeing the White Sox win another championship.

Since that “Cubs perennial and laughable incompetence” ship has already sailed, and their competition for a World Series berth has only a minimal 4-to-6-game conflict with our competition for a World Series berth, I really don’t care about making a mutually beneficial trade with them. All I care about is seeing this team make the best possible decisions and build a legitimate championship contender.
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  #334  
Old 12-08-2019, 03:08 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Okay. You're helping the Cubs get back to the World Series while crippling the White Sox ability to remain competive within their payroll constraints by taking on way too much money for a player that doesn't belong on a major league roster.
  #335  
Old 12-08-2019, 03:11 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
You can't take a small sample size and then make it smaller by cherry picking and removing the worst at bats and say "he's this player now". LOL.


Marcell Ozuna batted. 1.000 in the at bats he got hits! He's that player!

Ozuna is an above average player that the scout analytics say should be better. It's debatable who's right. But there won't be a year over the next four where he won't be marginally better than Jayson Heyward.
That’s ridiculous. It’s an entire season’s worth of plate appearances, with a significant subsection of outlier failure removed. People make analyses like that all the time.

Bottom line, signing Marcell Ozuna is a no good, very bad idea. That is the type of signing a team with a $200+ payroll makes if they need another guy to mix and match with in their outfield corps and bat somewhere in the bottom-third of the lineup. On the other hand, we would be counting on Ozuna to move up the defensive spectrum from LF to RF, hit somewhere goofy in the heart of the lineup (like Abreu does), and turn those sexy Statcast numbers into sexy tangible production—something he has failed to do in 4 out of the last 5 seasons.
  #336  
Old 12-08-2019, 03:23 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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It's not a full season of at bats. It's a full season minus all the worst at bats.


We'll have to disagree on Heyward.


Ozuna is getting a paltry committment. I doubt he gets much more than $30 million over 3 years, possibly $40 million over 4. Which is lower than his value, and not a bunch of money to throw at a starter.
  #337  
Old 12-08-2019, 03:27 PM
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That’s ridiculous. It’s an entire season’s worth of plate appearances, with a significant subsection of outlier failure removed. People make analyses like that all the time.
No serious statistical analysis relies on that method. It's called manipulating the data. By that standard we could just remove July from James McCann's number call it an extended slump and say, "He's sure to have an OPS of .830+ next year."
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  #338  
Old 12-08-2019, 03:29 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
It's not a full season of at bats. It's a full season minus all the worst at bats.


We'll have to disagree on Heyward.


Ozuna is getting a paltry committment. I doubt he gets much more than $30 million over 3 years, possibly $40 million over 4. Which is lower than his value, and not a bunch of money to throw at a starter.
I thought the same thing about Moose, and look what happened there. I think the market is shifting before our very eyes, and I think we really lucked out on signing Grandal early.

This week will tell us a lot, but if Moose can get 4/$64 for ages 31-34, I think Ozuna can get at least that for ages 29-32.

Hell, at this rate, that 3/$50 to Abreu doesn’t look as crazy as it did when the news broke.
  #339  
Old 12-08-2019, 03:51 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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If that's the market, that's the market. He's still a positive player and we need an outfielder. Heyward isn't that answer. Heck...there's a lot of OF on a lower tier than Ozuna who will be cheaper and better than Heyward.
  #340  
Old 12-08-2019, 03:56 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Sure it sinks.

For a 97-98 mph pitch, it gets about the same amount of resistance to vertical movement as guys who are throwing 92-93 but with more spin.
Except it doesn't sink.... We've all watched hundreds of innings of him pitch, and his 4 seam doesn't drop from the top of the zone into the hitting zone as you described. Spin rate is only a small part of success or failure when it comes to pitching.
  #341  
Old 12-08-2019, 03:58 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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I think the Ozuna rumor has been put to rest by people that have actual sources within the industry/Sox FO.

The Sox are clearly trying to work on getting pitching. Who they ultimately get for RF I think depends on the quality of pitching they acquire, combined with how much payroll room there is remaining.
  #342  
Old 12-08-2019, 04:16 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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I think the Ozuna rumor has been put to rest by people that have actual sources within the industry/Sox FO.

The Sox are clearly trying to work on getting pitching. Who they ultimately get for RF I think depends on the quality of pitching they acquire, combined with how much payroll room there is remaining.

Well, we missed out on the only tier two pitcher and everything I read says we're not evening engaging on tier one. So, to me that means we're going to go for tier one of outfield. That's either Castellanos or Ozuna.
  #343  
Old 12-08-2019, 04:27 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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No serious statistical analysis relies on that method. It's called manipulating the data. By that standard we could just remove July from James McCann's number call it an extended slump and say, "He's sure to have an OPS of .830+ next year."
People did this last year with Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada all the time. Remember the constant repetition of “TA needs to hit 7th because that’s where he’s more comfortable” despite the fact that he was at the top of the AL batting average leaderboard all season? As for Moncada, people even went so far as to suggest that Moncada’s change of defensive position was somehow a factor in his improved offense.

Can’t have it both ways when I suggest that those plate appearances in the leadoff spot may have been a correctable drag on Heyward’s overall numbers.

Besides, the argument I was refuting with those numbers was the argument that Heyward “has no business on a major league roster.” Even with those awful numbers, it’s nonsense to say that Heyward is not a major league player anymore.
  #344  
Old 12-08-2019, 04:33 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Fair. He's certainly not a starter though. His defense - which was his only saving grace - now makes him roughly league average. With such a light stick, it's not a given a team would view him as better than organizational depth as a 4th or 5th outfielder. But yes, there are rosters he would make.
  #345  
Old 12-08-2019, 04:39 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
Except it doesn't sink.... We've all watched hundreds of innings of him pitch, and his 4 seam doesn't drop from the top of the zone into the hitting zone as you described. Spin rate is only a small part of success or failure when it comes to pitching.
You’re watching a different pitcher, then. That’s all I can tell you. Out of 61 ERA qualifiers (162+ IP), Lopez ranks #9 in average fastball velocity but is tied for #27 overall (with 3 other guys) in movement. I’ll try and see if I can find some video of some of the gopher balls he allowed.

Simply put, even when he can throw it for strikes, his 98 mph fastball “plays down” because it doesn’t spin enough.
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