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  #46  
Old 12-20-2019, 11:07 AM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
Not sure why anyone is expecting Rodon to pitch this season. His surgery was just in May. Even if he blows through rehab and has an incredible turnaround time, safety would say he doesn't pitch until September earliest.

Not expecting him until 2021 anyone who expects sooner is setting themselves up to be disappointed, IMO.
Didn't he only have Tommy John? Usually coming back from that surgery involves mound throwing 8-10 months later and a return in 11-12 months. Granted - longer for a full return to form. But by the time spring training hits, he should be at the very least throwing from a mound again.

I expect him to pitch this year. But I don't expect him to start.
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  #47  
Old 12-20-2019, 11:07 AM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
Not sure why anyone is expecting Rodon to pitch this season. His surgery was just in May. Even if he blows through rehab and has an incredible turnaround time, safety would say he doesn't pitch until September earliest.

Not expecting him until 2021 anyone who expects sooner is setting themselves up to be disappointed, IMO.
Assuming all goes well with his rehab I do expect the Sox are going to have him pitch some in Aug/Sept (whether that's AAA or MLB depends on the standings) because they need to know what they have in him for 2021, his last year of control. The Sox being completely in the dark about how his surgery/recovery went is a big risk going into 2021. They could save $5-8mil or whatever his arb 4 will be by non tendering him, so need to find out something before making a decision on him. He could come back and have some useful starts, and the Sox might think he's slotted in at #6 (next man up).
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  #48  
Old 12-20-2019, 11:21 AM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Didn't he only have Tommy John? Usually coming back from that surgery involves mound throwing 8-10 months later and a return in 11-12 months. Granted - longer for a full return to form. But by the time spring training hits, he should be at the very least throwing from a mound again.

I expect him to pitch this year. But I don't expect him to start.
Isn't that what Kopech had? I thought we were looking at 18 months. Kopech wasn't ready to pitch last August.
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  #49  
Old 12-20-2019, 11:22 AM
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Chez Chez is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Didn't he only have Tommy John? Usually coming back from that surgery involves mound throwing 8-10 months later and a return in 11-12 months. Granted - longer for a full return to form. But by the time spring training hits, he should be at the very least throwing from a mound again.

I expect him to pitch this year. But I don't expect him to start.
Agree and while we are on the subject of rehab, the prevailing sentiment around here lately is that Kopech won't be ready until May or later. Is that estimate based on anything other than either pessimism or being overly cautious with a prized asset? I agree with putting Kopech on an innings cap in 2020, but have no idea why some are writing him off till summer.
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  #50  
Old 12-20-2019, 11:35 AM
BRDSR BRDSR is offline
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Originally Posted by MeteorsSox4367 View Post
FWIW, Ron Darling on MLB Network said the Sox potentially could have the best rotation in the division. He had Giolito 1, Gonzalez 2, Lopez 3 followed by Kopech and Rodon.

Love the optimism. Hope he's accurate.
Unfortunately, says a lot more about the division than it does about the Sox' rotation. Also, he forgot about Cease. Replace Rodon with Cease and that rotation still doesn't look like a top-half rotation of the rotation in baseball to me. And I think the prevailing thought is that Kopech will do a little time at AAA to start the season.
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  #51  
Old 12-20-2019, 11:38 AM
Kilroy Kilroy is offline
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Originally Posted by Chez View Post
Agree and while we are on the subject of rehab, the prevailing sentiment around here lately is that Kopech won't be ready until May or later. Is that estimate based on anything other than either pessimism or being overly cautious with a prized asset? I agree with putting Kopech on an innings cap in 2020, but have no idea why some are writing him off till summer.
I'm not sure why this is the prevailing sentiment either. Kopech was facing live hitters back in October. Word was his velocity was there, but command was rusty, as expected. I'd think that he's been working on that all along, so we'll see what he's got come spring.

Knowing that Kopech is a chronic worker, I won't be surprised at all to see him break camp with the Sox.
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  #52  
Old 12-20-2019, 11:44 AM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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I'm not sure why this is the prevailing sentiment either. Kopech was facing live hitters back in October. Word was his velocity was there, but command was rusty, as expected. I'd think that he's been working on that all along, so we'll see what he's got come spring.

Knowing that Kopech is a chronic worker, I won't be surprised at all to see him break camp with the Sox.
I fully expect him not to break camp for 2 reasons:

1. Like you said, his command is rusty, and they want him to be 100% ready when being back in the bigs. Remember he's barely pitched in the majors, so he'll be nervous/amped up still in his starts at that level.

2. They want to recoup a year of service time by keeping him down until May at least. He would only have 5 years of control by having him on the opening day roster.
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  #53  
Old 12-20-2019, 12:07 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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That is what is maddening -

The Sox WOULD have the best rotation in the division if it was

Giolito
Either of Ryu/Keuchel
Kopech
Cease
With Lopez/Gonzalez/Rodon as the 5 and depth etc. Especially since Kopech and Rodon need to be eased in post injuries and Cease is on his first full year up. You need 7 starters.

Like Add either of Ryu and Keuchel and Will Harris

Lineup of SOMETHING like Madrigal Moncada Grandal Abreu Eloy Robert Anderson Mazara and rotating DH (or ****, sign Castellanos too)
Rotation as above
Bullpen with Harris infront of Colome with some of the kids emerging

Its not a contender to win the AL, but that COULD win the AL Central, that could win 87-90 games
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  #54  
Old 12-20-2019, 01:14 PM
Noneck Noneck is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post

2. They want to recoup a year of service time by keeping him down until May at least. He would only have 5 years of control by having him on the opening day roster.

I believe service time is ticking no matter when he joins the Sox due to being injured while on the active roster.
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  #55  
Old 12-20-2019, 01:31 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by Noneck View Post
I believe service time is ticking no matter when he joins the Sox due to being injured while on the active roster.
Yes, 2019 he was on the active roster thus using a full year. He would have to be in the minors into May to make the amount of time combined from 2018 and 2020 less than 172 days.

Moncada for example, was assigned to the minors when coming to the Sox entering the 2017 season. He wasn't brought up until well into the season and pretty much added the brief 2016 service time total to his total in 2017, which is less than 172 days. As a result, he will have played parts of 8 seasons in the majors before he's a FA.
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  #56  
Old 12-20-2019, 01:46 PM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is online now
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Is it weird that the terms of the Gio Gonzalez deal still haven't been released?
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  #57  
Old 12-20-2019, 04:23 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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I believe service time is ticking no matter when he joins the Sox due to being injured while on the active roster.
It only accrues if you are on the 26 man roster or on the DL. Kopech still has options, he wouldn't acrue time on the active AAA roster. So if they called him up around June 1st, he'd be under 2 years service time.
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  #58  
Old 12-20-2019, 04:56 PM
KRS1 KRS1 is offline
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Is it weird that the terms of the Gio Gonzalez deal still haven't been released?
Yes. I wonder if it is like the one he signed with the Yanks where he get paid per start on top of a low deal.
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  #59  
Old 12-20-2019, 05:02 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by Chez View Post
Agree and while we are on the subject of rehab, the prevailing sentiment around here lately is that Kopech won't be ready until May or later. Is that estimate based on anything other than either pessimism or being overly cautious with a prized asset? I agree with putting Kopech on an innings cap in 2020, but have no idea why some are writing him off till summer.
I think Strasburg was capped at 125 innings the year he returned.

The question is whether or not those 125 innings are more valuable in a starting capacity or a multi-inning relief capacity. Instead of those <100-pitch workloads every 5th day, why not do <50-pitch workloads every 3rd day? Give him scheduled days of work just like a starter, but in relief. If that dayís starter goes a little longer, then Kopechís stint can go shorter, or perhaps even delayed by an extra day if that situation presents itself.
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  #60  
Old 12-20-2019, 05:05 PM
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Chez Chez is offline
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I think Strasburg was capped at 125 innings the year he returned.

The question is whether or not those 125 innings are more valuable in a starting capacity or a multi-inning relief capacity. Instead of those <100-pitch workloads every 5th day, why not do <50-pitch workloads every 3rd day? Give him scheduled days of work just like a starter, but in relief. If that dayís starter goes a little longer, then Kopechís stint can go shorter, or perhaps even delayed by an extra day if that situation presents itself.
You sold me on that idea for Rodon -- use him like Andrew Miller. But is there any data or medical opinion which suggests that 100 pitches every five days is more or less stressful on a recovering arm than 50 pitches every three days?
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