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  #31  
Old 11-01-2018, 07:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Nellie_Fox View Post
Just who determines these mythical "ceilings?" Based on what? "Exit velocity?"
Normally that is the management and scouts and others who evaluate talent for an organization and it's based on the same factors it's always been based on: Success at lower levels, bat speed, athleticism, arm strength, speed, etc.
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  #32  
Old 11-01-2018, 04:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Nellie_Fox View Post
Just who determines these mythical "ceilings?" Based on what? "Exit velocity?"
Why have scouts if you don't want people who project how good a player could be?

Also, I hate the bashing of exit velocity. It is usually by people (not saying you, just in general) who love phrases like "the ball makes a different sound off his bat". Its like, for 100 years people have known some guys throw the ball a lot harder than others, and some hit the ball harder than others. But as soon as that gets quantified and proven, its junk nerd science.
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  #33  
Old 11-01-2018, 04:31 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17
Also, I hate the bashing of exit velocity. It is usually by people (not saying you, just in general) who love phrases like "the ball makes a different sound off his bat". Its like, for 100 years people have known some guys throw the ball a lot harder than others, and some hit the ball harder than others. But as soon as that gets quantified and proven, its junk nerd science.
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  #34  
Old 11-01-2018, 05:27 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
Why have scouts if you don't want people who project how good a player could be?

Also, I hate the bashing of exit velocity. It is usually by people (not saying you, just in general) who love phrases like "the ball makes a different sound off his bat". Its like, for 100 years people have known some guys throw the ball a lot harder than others, and some hit the ball harder than others. But as soon as that gets quantified and proven, its junk nerd science.
One could make the same comparison about launch angle, too. Dick Allen got props for hitting hard line drives, which were more likely to get out of the park than a high fly ball. Well, mathematically, Dick Allen’s launch angle was optimized for hitting the ball into the stands.
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  #35  
Old 11-01-2018, 08:38 PM
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A hit is a hit. I could care less how hard it is and I wish they'd stop shoving it down our throats during a broadcast.
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  #36  
Old 11-01-2018, 08:44 PM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
Also, I hate the bashing of exit velocity.
I hate the bashing of batting average and on base percentage.

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Originally Posted by shingo10 View Post
A hit is a hit. I could care less how hard it is and I wish they'd stop shoving it down our throats during a broadcast.
Grab words: how else are you going to engage the whiz, bang and boom crowd?
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Last edited by Grzegorz; 11-01-2018 at 08:50 PM.
  #37  
Old 11-01-2018, 10:08 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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A hit is a hit. I could care less how hard it is and I wish they'd stop shoving it down our throats during a broadcast.
A hit is not a hit though. In a given moment sure, but that is like saying Chris Sale's slider is good as good as a James Shields change up because in a given moment it could both produce a K. Even though that beyond one moment we know that Sale's slider is harder, moves more, is unhittable. That is all most of these numbers are doing, showing who is most likely to replicate their success.
  #38  
Old 11-01-2018, 10:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
A hit is not a hit though. In a given moment sure, but that is like saying Chris Sale's slider is good as good as a James Shields change up because in a given moment it could both produce a K. Even though that beyond one moment we know that Sale's slider is harder, moves more, is unhittable. That is all most of these numbers are doing, showing who is most likely to replicate their success.
No no no... don't you see? A soft lollipop bloop traveling at 60 MPH is just as likely to create a hit as a screaming line drive traveling 115 is.

Do I really need to put that in teal?
  #39  
Old 11-02-2018, 12:55 AM
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Nellie_Fox Nellie_Fox is offline
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My whole point was that I haven't seen anything in Moncada that suggests this "high ceiling." But it seems that once someone is tagged as having a "high ceiling," even though he never approaches anything like it, people keep repeating it.
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  #40  
Old 11-02-2018, 01:29 AM
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
No no no... don't you see? A soft lollipop bloop traveling at 60 MPH is just as likely to create a hit as a screaming line drive traveling 115 is.

Do I really need to put that in teal?

No, you don't. But a soft bloop is more likely to create a hit than a strikeout.


I would care more about average exit velocity it zeros were factored in for the strikeouts.
  #41  
Old 11-02-2018, 04:38 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by TDog
No, you don't. But a soft bloop is more likely to create a hit than a strikeout.


I would care more about average exit velocity it zeros were factored in for the strikeouts.
There is no need. K% already tells you all you need to know. Those zeroes would be counterproductive.
  #42  
Old 11-02-2018, 05:32 AM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Originally Posted by Nellie_Fox View Post
My whole point was that I haven't seen anything in Moncada that suggests this "high ceiling." But it seems that once someone is tagged as having a "high ceiling," even though he never approaches anything like it, people keep repeating it.
I think we saw a glimpse of his ceiling with his April numbers (.877 OPS), particularly hitting the ball hard left handed, and then another glimpse in September when he cut down the strikeouts and he hit .301, including significant improvement hitting right-handed. Those glimpses are totally buried in his overall season stats, though.
  #43  
Old 11-02-2018, 08:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
I think we saw a glimpse of his ceiling with his April numbers (.877 OPS), particularly hitting the ball hard left handed, and then another glimpse in September when he cut down the strikeouts and he hit .301, including significant improvement hitting right-handed. Those glimpses are totally buried in his overall season stats, though.
He also showed marked improvement defensively as the season wore on. It was his first full season. Let's see how he comes back in season two. He may not be what we were all hoping for so far, but he's hardly the biggest issue on the team either. We certainly can allow him the time to develop and find out if he can achieve the ceiling many think he has.
  #44  
Old 11-02-2018, 08:10 AM
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
He also showed marked improvement defensively as the season wore on. It was his first full season. Let's see how he comes back in season two. He may not be what we were all hoping for so far, but he's hardly the biggest issue on the team either. We certainly can allow him the time to develop and find out if he can achieve the ceiling many think he has.
Sure, Moncada could still be good, but you'd be a fool to not accept the ridiculous and totally unrealistic trade where the Marlins would give us J.T. Realmuto for him, because Realmuto is actually good. No maybes.
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  #45  
Old 11-02-2018, 08:20 AM
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Sure, Moncada could still be good, but you'd be a fool to not accept the ridiculous and totally unrealistic trade where the Marlins would give us J.T. Realmuto for him, because Realmuto is actually good. No maybes.
Well whether the Sox should give up Moncada for him is a matter of opinion. They would certainly be silly not to explore other options first especially with the Marlins' Hands tied at the moment.

And I wonder if the Marlins would actually consider it a "ridiculous and unrealistic" offer. I would bet a lot of teams out there still covet Moncada even if he did just have a spotty at best first full season.
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