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  #61  
Old 12-05-2019, 11:38 AM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
Wait. So you think the Phillies would rather Wheeler have a FIP of 3.50 and an ERA of 4.00 over the next 5 seasons. Than him have a FIP of 4.00 and an ERA of 3.50??
Of course they would rather he outperform his FIP than underperform it. If you are arguing what is more important to the Phillies in actual results in 2020 and beyond, you are correct. If you are arguing Wheeler's value and predictor of future results rests more on his past ERA than his FIP and other related metrics, I vehemently disagree.
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  #62  
Old 12-05-2019, 11:47 AM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
It is very hard having these exchanges with you when you are constantly changing narrative, moving goal posts, ignoring overall points, etc.

I think FIP is a fine indicator of how a pitcher is pitching during a season. But I'm not even talking about that.

So bullpens all of a sudden are the culprit for differences in ERA and FIP?

Do you actually believe that the deGrom extension and it's value relative to his age and abilities/results are in a vacuum stuck in time on March 27, 2019? 8 months ago... And have literally nothing to do with another pitcher of a similar age, high end potential, same term, minimal to no inflation occurring, etc? You think teams when they are spending over a hundred million dollars just make up these contract numbers?
As I mentioned previously, FIP and xFIP are calculations of pitching that use earned run average, ballpark effects, managerial decisions, bullpen success with inherited runners, and luck into account. Bullpens have a very strong effect on the difference between ERA and FIP. ERA doesn't take bullpen success rate with inherited runners in to account at all. In fact, ERA is only effected by a bad bullpen and not at all effected by a good one.

You keep saying you understand FIP but then you say things like I'm moving the goalposts when I explain to you why ERA and FIP are different. I don't think you understand FIP...

On DeGrom...I think players take a lot less money when they are signing extensions, and even less than that when they're not even a free agent.

Last edited by blandman; 12-05-2019 at 11:53 AM.
  #63  
Old 12-05-2019, 11:59 AM
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I don't give a FIP about this (Sorry, could not resist).
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  #64  
Old 12-05-2019, 12:12 PM
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I don't give a FIP about this (Sorry, could not resist).
I agree can ya'll take this discussion back to the Hot Stove thread or make a new one in the TB forum? This is a thread for people to discuss Sox off season moves, not to get your stats freak groove on...
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  #65  
Old 12-05-2019, 01:10 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by kittle42 View Post
Of course they would rather he outperform his FIP than underperform it. If you are arguing what is more important to the Phillies in actual results in 2020 and beyond, you are correct. If you are arguing Wheeler's value and predictor of future results rests more on his past ERA than his FIP and other related metrics, I vehemently disagree.
We are on the same page.
  #66  
Old 12-05-2019, 01:21 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
As I mentioned previously, FIP and xFIP are calculations of pitching that use earned run average, ballpark effects, managerial decisions, bullpen success with inherited runners, and luck into account. Bullpens have a very strong effect on the difference between ERA and FIP. ERA doesn't take bullpen success rate with inherited runners in to account at all. In fact, ERA is only effected by a bad bullpen and not at all effected by a good one.

You keep saying you understand FIP but then you say things like I'm moving the goalposts when I explain to you why ERA and FIP are different. I don't think you understand FIP...

On DeGrom...I think players take a lot less money when they are signing extensions, and even less than that when they're not even a free agent.
"Moving the goal posts" are in reference to interactions lately and in general with you. Most recently you talking about how Cole Hamels was bad in the 3rd and 4th innings, and that everything that happened afterwards was not significant. You then flipped to anything after the 6th inning is insignificant after I pointed out he was very good from the 5th-8th innings last year. Stuff like that.

The FIP convo falls under the "ignoring overall points" category. From the beginning I was not trying to have an ERA vs FIP conversation. Only that Wheeler with his new contract moving forward better actually give up the amount of runs relative to how well his FIP says he pitched last year.

I did make the mistake of opening the can of worms that is of daring to question FIP, and pointing out that there are indeed certain aspects that are "luck" similar to how ERA does.

Regarding extensions: Arenado, Stanton, Trout, Sale, are just a few examples of high caliber players getting fair market deals no where near taking "a lot less".
  #67  
Old 12-05-2019, 01:23 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
I agree can ya'll take this discussion back to the Hot Stove thread or make a new one in the TB forum? This is a thread for people to discuss Sox off season moves, not to get your stats freak groove on...
Never meant for my post(s) to be taken out of context, just trying to clarify.

But yes, we should carry on with Sox offseason moves...
  #68  
Old 12-06-2019, 03:24 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Sox pick up Tayron Guerrero from the Marlins.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...-guerrero.html
  #69  
Old 12-06-2019, 03:28 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Sox pick up Tayron Guerrero from the Marlins.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...-guerrero.html
Lights up the radar gun, but below average spin. Sounds like Reynaldo Lopez, but without starter's durability.
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  #70  
Old 12-06-2019, 05:02 PM
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Lights up the radar gun, but below average spin. Sounds like Reynaldo Lopez, but without starter's durability.
Coop can FIP him.
  #71  
Old 12-06-2019, 05:53 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Coop can FIP him.
Speaking of Coop, he hasn't FIPped or WARred or fixed anybody in ages.
  #72  
Old 12-06-2019, 07:03 PM
RCWHITESOX RCWHITESOX is offline
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Originally Posted by DumpJerry View Post
Coop can FIP him.
Coop hasnít fixed anyone lately! On some of the camera shots into the dugout it looks like heís half asleep!
  #73  
Old 12-06-2019, 07:58 PM
longtimefan longtimefan is offline
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Speaking of Coop, he hasn't FIPped or WARred or fixed anybody in ages.
I been thinking for a while that it's time for Coop to retire. We need new life blood.
  #74  
Old 12-06-2019, 08:09 PM
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I been thinking for a while that it's time for Coop to retire. We need new life blood.
Absolutely.

Personally, I want everyone gone, with the exception of Joe McEwing, who I want to become the next manager.

Any putrid stretches like the 12-26 stretch this team had from the middle of June to the beginning of August should result in midseason termination of Renteria.
  #75  
Old 12-07-2019, 01:05 PM
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Lights up the radar gun, but below average spin. Sounds like Reynaldo Lopez, but without starter's durability.
We've got two of these already! Thyago Vieira and Jose Ruiz. Hopefully this guy is better.
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