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  #46  
Old 12-04-2019, 09:52 PM
KRS1 KRS1 is offline
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At least we didn’t get played for four months like last offseason ... I guess.

Time to dive into the trade market, which terrifies me.
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  #47  
Old 12-04-2019, 09:54 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
Until the Sox land someone big, the story is always going to be the Sox are cheap and won't land a big fish. And Sorry, Grandal is good, he is not a big fish.

You have 2 big SP out there, you need to land 1, or the offseason is just another one full of 2nd and 3rd tier guys.
I'll go further. If they don't land one of the top two guys, the offseason is a failure. A failure like last offseason; a failure like the last trading deadline. Grandal is a nice pickup, but this team needs a #1 or #2 starter more than anything.
  #48  
Old 12-04-2019, 10:25 PM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Originally Posted by KRS1 View Post

Time to dive into the trade market, which terrifies me.
Very much so.
Risk is far greater than the reward. Rather ride with what we have.
  #49  
Old 12-05-2019, 03:58 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
Until the Sox land someone big, the story is always going to be the Sox are cheap and won't land a big fish.
Regardless of the facts...
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  #50  
Old 12-05-2019, 08:01 AM
Kilroy Kilroy is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
Until the Sox land someone big, the story is always going to be the Sox are cheap and won't land a big fish. And Sorry, Grandal is good, he is not a big fish.

You have 2 big SP out there, you need to land 1, or the offseason is just another one full of 2nd and 3rd tier guys.
Signing the big fish doesn't guarantee anything, least of all winning. And by the same token, there's nothing that says the 2nd and 3rd tier guys can't take you where you want to go.

That said, I do want to see the Sox target someone that's higher profile and land them. They need to figure out how to get it done.
  #51  
Old 12-05-2019, 08:13 AM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Getting the first star is always the hardest. You don’t sustain winning without premium talent. You might get lucky for a year, but consistently, no.
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  #52  
Old 12-05-2019, 08:33 AM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
Of course you want the guy with lower future ERA. But that is irrelevant to how much anyone is worth on the open market right now, because we don't know the future ERA. The best we can do is predict what will happen, and 2019 FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than 2019 ERA is.
Right, but I wasn't talk about that. I was saying that from now on with a highly paid pitcher, real results like ERA are what matter, not what his FIP is.
  #53  
Old 12-05-2019, 08:41 AM
asindc asindc is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
Until the Sox land someone big, the story is always going to be the Sox are cheap and won't land a big fish. And Sorry, Grandal is good, he is not a big fish.

You have 2 big SP out there, you need to land 1, or the offseason is just another one full of 2nd and 3rd tier guys.
Grandal is better than Wheeler. Don’t see how Wheeler is considered a “big fish” and Grandal is not.
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  #54  
Old 12-05-2019, 08:42 AM
blandman blandman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
Right, but I wasn't talk about that. I was saying that from now on with a highly paid pitcher, real results like ERA are what matter, not what his FIP is.

ERA is NOT indicative of how a pitcher pitches. It's indicative of how a pitcher pitches relative to their defense, bullpen, manager proclivities, ballpark effect, and just plain luck.


FIP and xFIP are indicative of how a pitcher ACTUALLY pitched. It accounts for all those other factors and gives the truest sense of how a pitcher pitched. It's a better predictor for future performance for a lot of reasons. But the main reason is that ERA in and of itself is just a meaningless stat by comparison.


But you won't accept that, so:





Zach Wheeler 2018 3.31 ERA, 3.25 FIP; 2019 3.96 ERA. 3.48 FIP

Madison Bum 2018 3.26 ERA, 3.99 FIP; 2019 3.90 ERA. 3.90 FIP


Wheeler and MadBum are on similar ERA trends the last two years. They're not on similar FIP trends. So at the very worst, where we use actual ERA - He's as good as the guy you want.


Granted, I think that's nonsense, as the peripherals show Wheeler is a league ahead of MadBum - who is also in a 3 year downward spiral. But if you're going to just use ERA, then you're going to have to either recant calling Wheeler not good or recant calling MadBum good. It doesn't work both ways.
  #55  
Old 12-05-2019, 08:45 AM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Makes me wonder if Wheeler never had any intention of signing with the Sox and were just using them to drive up this price for a team that he'd actually sign with.

I'm not sure what the best option is going forward, but I just hope the Sox say NO to Bumgarner. His splits away from AT&T Park are concerning. He'd be a good candidate for another in a long line of White Sox free agent flops. I'd rather they went for bottom of the rotation guys now and go after a top SP FA next year than sign him. I'd like for them to go all out after Strasburg, but we know the chances of that are almost zero.

Maybe they can trade away whatever OF talent we have in the minors not named Robert for a decent SP and then sign Mookie Betts next winter.

Regardless, I hope they had a plan B since it was never a guarantee that they'd land Wheeler.
  #56  
Old 12-05-2019, 08:50 AM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
Right, but I wasn't talk about that. I was saying that from now on with a highly paid pitcher, real results like ERA are what matter, not what his FIP is.
Yes, that is obvious. If you have a crystal ball and can tell me exactly which pitcher will have the lowest ERA while pitching for the White Sox, that is the player we would want. Was that really your point?
  #57  
Old 12-05-2019, 09:33 AM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
Yes, that is obvious. If you have a crystal ball and can tell me exactly which pitcher will have the lowest ERA while pitching for the White Sox, that is the player we would want. Was that really your point?
It was something I mentioned in passing as something I assumed everyone would understand. But a few posters (not you), thought I didn't either know what FIP was or it just went completely over their heads.
  #58  
Old 12-05-2019, 09:47 AM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blandman View Post
ERA is NOT indicative of how a pitcher pitches. It's indicative of how a pitcher pitches relative to their defense, bullpen, manager proclivities, ballpark effect, and just plain luck.


FIP and xFIP are indicative of how a pitcher ACTUALLY pitched. It accounts for all those other factors and gives the truest sense of how a pitcher pitched. It's a better predictor for future performance for a lot of reasons. But the main reason is that ERA in and of itself is just a meaningless stat by comparison.


But you won't accept that, so:



Zach Wheeler 2018 3.31 ERA, 3.25 FIP; 2019 3.96 ERA. 3.48 FIP

Madison Bum 2018 3.26 ERA, 3.99 FIP; 2019 3.90 ERA. 3.90 FIP


Wheeler and MadBum are on similar ERA trends the last two years. They're not on similar FIP trends. So at the very worst, where we use actual ERA - He's as good as the guy you want.


Granted, I think that's nonsense, as the peripherals show Wheeler is a league ahead of MadBum - who is also in a 3 year downward spiral. But if you're going to just use ERA, then you're going to have to either recant calling Wheeler not good or recant calling MadBum good. It doesn't work both ways.
You are completely not understanding what I am/was saying. I'm very aware of what FIP is and its use. My point is that his FIP of 2019 better actually result in in a low to mid 3s ERA in 2020-2024, because the Phillies actually need results from their investment. The difference between an ERA of 4.00 and 3.50 is 12 runs over a season. That's the difference in them winning or losing like 4 games.

Why are you comparing MadBum to Wheeler now? I was comparing him to deGrom...


For the record, an ERA over an entire season has most of the 'luck' evened out. There's plenty of 'luck' factored into FIP as well: bad strike zones, different ball parks, wind blowing in or out, etc. It also completely ignores pitching with men on base.
  #59  
Old 12-05-2019, 10:01 AM
blandman blandman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
You are completely not understanding what I am/was saying. I'm very aware of what FIP is and its use. My point is that his FIP of 2019 better actually result in in a low to mid 3s ERA in 2020-2024, because the Phillies actually need results from their investment. The difference between an ERA of 4.00 and 3.50 is 12 runs over a season. That's the difference in them winning or losing like 4 games.

Why are you comparing MadBum to Wheeler now? I was comparing him to deGrom...


For the record, an ERA over an entire season has most of the 'luck' evened out. There's plenty of 'luck' factored into FIP as well: bad strike zones, different ball parks, wind blowing in or out, etc. It also completely ignores pitching with men on base.
DeGrom isn't available, signed an extension when he wasn't a free agent, was older, and signed in a different year.

I'm mentioning MadBum because that's who you were pining for.

If you look at the Mets bullpen and the difference in their pen from 2018 to 2019 its pretty obvious why Wheeler's ERA is higher than his FIP in 2019 and is close to equal in 2018.

If you look at the good Giants pens in 2017 and 2018, it's also pretty obvious why MadBum's ERA was better than his FIP by a significant margin, and why a league average pen last year meant they equalized.

I don't use terms like "outperform" FIP, because FIP is the key stat and ERA is mostly meaningless. Your FIP is how you're pitching. Your ERA is how your team performed around you relative to your performance.
  #60  
Old 12-05-2019, 10:30 AM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blandman View Post
DeGrom isn't available, signed an extension when he wasn't a free agent, was older, and signed in a different year.

I'm mentioning MadBum because that's who you were pining for.

If you look at the Mets bullpen and the difference in their pen from 2018 to 2019 its pretty obvious why Wheeler's ERA is higher than his FIP in 2019 and is close to equal in 2018.

If you look at the good Giants pens in 2017 and 2018, it's also pretty obvious why MadBum's ERA was better than his FIP by a significant margin, and why a league average pen last year meant they equalized.

I don't use terms like "outperform" FIP, because FIP is the key stat and ERA is mostly meaningless. Your FIP is how you're pitching. Your ERA is how your team performed around you relative to your performance.
It is very hard having these exchanges with you when you are constantly changing narrative, moving goal posts, ignoring overall points, etc.

I think FIP is a fine indicator of how a pitcher is pitching during a season. But I'm not even talking about that.

So bullpens all of a sudden are the culprit for differences in ERA and FIP?

Do you actually believe that the deGrom extension and it's value relative to his age and abilities/results are in a vacuum stuck in time on March 27, 2019? 8 months ago... And have literally nothing to do with another pitcher of a similar age, high end potential, same term, minimal to no inflation occurring, etc? You think teams when they are spending over a hundred million dollars just make up these contract numbers?
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