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  #16  
Old 01-31-2020, 08:45 AM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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I think there are so many variables for the 2020 White Sox starting rotation- I don't blame Hahn for taking a moderate approach.

We could have up to 7 solid quality starting pitchers by the 2nd half of the season: Giolito, Keuchel, Cease, Gonzalez, Lopez, Kopech and Rodon, OR we could have a rotation that's a disaster- Giolito regresses, Keuchel and Gonzalez age quickly, Cease and Lopez don't develop/progress, and Kopech and Rodon struggle coming back from TJ. Based on the schedule and early season weather- we probably won't need a 5th starter until May.

It would be great to have Strasburg or Wheeler- but at the same time I think there is a very high probability that those deals will hamstring their franchises down the road- similar to how the Cubs are currently paralyzed by their big, non productive contracts for Lester and Hayward.

All of the "volatility" in the 2020 White Sox- including how Robert and Madrigal will produce in their rookie seasons- has me comfortable with the approach Hahn has taken- complement the rebuild with solid veterans on short term deals (most with club option years) while we find out whether we have plenty of quality starting pitching or very little, as well as finding out whether we have internal prospects for RF (Adolfo, Rutherford, etc.) and for DH/1B (Vaughn, Sheets, Collins).
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  #17  
Old 01-31-2020, 08:52 AM
asindc asindc is offline
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Originally Posted by TomBradley72 View Post
I think there are so many variables for the 2020 White Sox starting rotation- I don't blame Hahn for taking a moderate approach.

We could have up to 7 solid quality starting pitchers by the 2nd half of the season: Giolito, Keuchel, Cease, Gonzalez, Lopez, Kopech and Rodon, OR we could have a rotation that's a disaster- Giolito regresses, Keuchel and Gonzalez age quickly, Cease and Lopez don't develop/progress, and Kopech and Rodon struggle coming back from TJ. Based on the schedule and early season weather- we probably won't need a 5th starter until May.

It would be great to have Strasburg or Wheeler- but at the same time I think there is a very high probability that those deals will hamstring their franchises down the road- similar to how the Cubs are currently paralyzed by their big, non productive contracts for Lester and Hayward.

All of the "volatility" in the 2020 White Sox- including how Robert and Madrigal will produce in their rookie seasons- has me comfortable with the approach Hahn has taken- complement the rebuild with solid veterans on short term deals (most with club option years) while we find out whether we have plenty of quality starting pitching or very little, as well as finding out whether we have internal prospects for RF (Adolfo, Rutherford, etc.) and for DH/1B (Vaughn, Sheets, Collins).
The Lester and Haywood cases are anomalies.
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  #18  
Old 01-31-2020, 11:33 AM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is online now
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
People keep saying the White Sox rotation is a definite strength against the Twins rotation. Iím having trouble figuring out why.

Berrios, Odorizzi, Bailey, half a season of Pineda, and half a season of Hill doesnít sound significantly less impressive than Giolito, Keuchel, Cease, Lopez, and half a season of Kopech.

In 2022? Absolutely. In 2020? Iím not sold on that at all.
The main reason to trust the Sox rotation over the Twins is depth. Even if all 5 of the guys you mentioned were healthy to start the season, they really don't have anything behind them of major league quality. Add in the fact that we know Hill is going to miss at least half the season so that's already a half season of starts that they're going to have to fill with players that aren't MLB-caliber. I also don't expect much at all from Bailey or Hill - I'd rather have Gonzalez than either of them, and you didn't even include him for some reason among the White Sox options.

For some reason I can't access the ZIPS projections on Fangraphs, but based on Steamer the Sox top 6 starters are given 10.5 WAR, and the Twins given 10.3. So the Sox have a slight edge, but it's basically a wash. For some reason it seems like they are projecting Cease to get replaced in the rotation by Kopech (they only project him for 108 innings), which would be a disappointment. If Cease is able to take the step forward that many project he will this season, the Sox would have a clear edge. They're also projecting a pretty big step back for Giolito (4.26 projected ERA), which is of course possible but I think most of us (including you) are expecting more from him.
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  #19  
Old 01-31-2020, 03:22 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
The main reason to trust the Sox rotation over the Twins is depth. Even if all 5 of the guys you mentioned were healthy to start the season, they really don't have anything behind them of major league quality. Add in the fact that we know Hill is going to miss at least half the season so that's already a half season of starts that they're going to have to fill with players that aren't MLB-caliber. I also don't expect much at all from Bailey or Hill - I'd rather have Gonzalez than either of them, and you didn't even include him for some reason among the White Sox options.

For some reason I can't access the ZIPS projections on Fangraphs, but based on Steamer the Sox top 6 starters are given 10.5 WAR, and the Twins given 10.3. So the Sox have a slight edge, but it's basically a wash. For some reason it seems like they are projecting Cease to get replaced in the rotation by Kopech (they only project him for 108 innings), which would be a disappointment. If Cease is able to take the step forward that many project he will this season, the Sox would have a clear edge. They're also projecting a pretty big step back for Giolito (4.26 projected ERA), which is of course possible but I think most of us (including you) are expecting more from him.
They are projecting Giolito at a mid-3 FIP and a WAR of about 4.1 next year. In other words, they expect another stud season. The ERA bump looks to be more of an indictment of Sox defense than a knock on Giolito.
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  #20  
Old 01-31-2020, 04:16 PM
Sargeant79 Sargeant79 is offline
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Except this isnít true.

Priceís FIP numbers since arriving in Boston:

2016: 3.60
2017: 3.64
2018: 4.02
2019: 3.62

HR/9

2016: 1.17
2017: 0.96
2018: 1.28
2019: 1.26

BB/9

2016: 1.96
2017: 2.89
2018: 2.56
2019: 2.68

K/9

2016: 8.92
2017: 9.16
2018: 9.05
2019: 10.73

WHIP

2016: 1.20
2017: 1.19
2018: 1.14
2019: 1.31

The only ďserious downward trendĒ is his age. That increase in WHIP was fed by an out-of-character BABIP above .330 last year.

Iím definitely cool with giving up 4 years of Reynaldo Lopez and 3 years of a bound-to-regress Evan Marshall for 3 years of David Price with years 2 and 3 heavily subsidized. That leaves you with a lot of veteran cover for Kopech and Cease as your 4-5 starters.

If Dallas Keuchel is worth 3/$55.5, then David Price is worth 3/$60, especially when 3/$60 drops to 2/$28 after a 2020 season in which none of the homegrown talent is getting paid yet.

People bring up financial flexibility at every opportunity, yet they completely dismiss the fact that 2020 will be the season that provides the most financial flexibility in this entire process.
David Price's WHIP last year was the highest since his first full season in the league. Maybe it's an outlier, but when you consider he'll be 34 this year I think it's a legit reason for concern. Also concerning are those FIP numbers you mention... Each of Price's last four seasons are higher than every other year of his career besides 2009. Those aren't positive trends, especially considering his age, and these certainly don't seem to be the stats of someone who you trade assets for while paying $20M/yr.

The Sox have 6 starters on the roster right now. I'm including Kopech in that number, who will probably start the season in the minors. Plus Rodon should be back later in the year. When it comes to about half these guys, we don't yet know if they're going to be good long-term. It's important the Sox find out as soon as possible, which means we need to see all these guys pitch to start the year. It's entirely possible that 1 or 2 of them don't cut it, in which case you fill in with that 6th and 7th guy and/or address ahead of the trade deadline. Trading for an expensive, declining player that will at best eat innings would be colossally stupid, IMHO.
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  #21  
Old 01-31-2020, 05:35 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Yeah, Priceís Cy Young days are not coming back, but if I can get 8 or 9 WAR out of him for the next 3 years, that could make a substantial positive difference for this teamís playoff chances.

With Giolito, Price, and Keuchel locked in for the next 3 years, that lets Kopech and Cease develop in the 4-5 spots without as much pressure to perform at a high level right off the bat. Ideally, those are the 2 guys who develop into rotation stalwarts. Those are the 2 guys I really care about developing properly. Anybody else who emerges as a legitimate major league starter would just be icing on the cake.

Even if Kopech and Cease both top out as 3-4 types, Giolito-Price-Kopech-Keuchel-Cease is a really nice rotation to have for any potential playoff series. It keeps any opposing players in platoon situations from getting consecutive days with at-bats. If either of them develops into a TOR guy to stack with Giolito, then the rotation gets really dangerous. You are definitely a money line favorite against most teams if you are running a guy like Keuchel out there for Game 4 of a playoff series. Running him out there for Game 2, though? Not so much...

When people say ďYou can never have too much pitching,Ē these are the situations that they are referencing.
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  #22  
Old 02-01-2020, 10:12 AM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Whatís interesting is the wild variety of outcomes we may have with our rotation. We have as much potential in our true 5 this year as anyone in the central, but we also have the biggest bust risk of any of the contenders as well.

Giolito was an ace last year but he finished poorly and had to be shut down. He has to show he can do it over a full year
Keuchel needs to look like the guy who was in Houston after a full spring
Cease needs to prove he isnít the next Carson Fulmer and find his command for great stuff in the bigs
Lopez needs to prove he will work hard enough to be worth anything. This is probably his last chance in the rotation this year
Gonzalez just has to prove he isnít toast
Kopech by far is the highest ceiling of any of our arms, but he is on a workload limit this year and we may not even have him available if we make the playoffs

You have 5 guys with mid rotation or better potential and at least 3 with TOR potential in Gio Cease and Kopech (To me Kuechel is a proven 2 at best). So the upside is astronomical but the floor is really low as well.

But I think you have to give all these kids a shot, and need one more swing man for depth that is not Covey, not a Price type
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  #23  
Old 02-01-2020, 11:17 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
Whatís interesting is the wild variety of outcomes we may have with our rotation. We have as much potential in our true 5 this year as anyone in the central, but we also have the biggest bust risk of any of the contenders as well.

Giolito was an ace last year but he finished poorly and had to be shut down. He has to show he can do it over a full year
Keuchel needs to look like the guy who was in Houston after a full spring
Cease needs to prove he isnít the next Carson Fulmer and find his command for great stuff in the bigs
Lopez needs to prove he will work hard enough to be worth anything. This is probably his last chance in the rotation this year
Gonzalez just has to prove he isnít toast
Kopech by far is the highest ceiling of any of our arms, but he is on a workload limit this year and we may not even have him available if we make the playoffs

You have 5 guys with mid rotation or better potential and at least 3 with TOR potential in Gio Cease and Kopech (To me Kuechel is a proven 2 at best). So the upside is astronomical but the floor is really low as well.

But I think you have to give all these kids a shot, and need one more swing man for depth that is not Covey, not a Price type
For me, Gio Gonzalez is that swingman for depth. Like you said, he needs to prove heís not toast. He also needs to prove that all those sub-5-inning starts were a result of Milwaukeeís philosophy and not an indicator of his capacity to navigate a full major league start.
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  #24  
Old 02-01-2020, 12:50 PM
Sargeant79 Sargeant79 is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Yeah, Price’s Cy Young days are not coming back, but if I can get 8 or 9 WAR out of him for the next 3 years, that could make a substantial positive difference for this team’s playoff chances.
I'd be surprised if Price gets to 8-9 WAR in the next 3 years since he was below 2 WAR in 2 out of the last 3 years. And if we're trying to get another 2.5-3 WAR per year, I have to believe there's a pitcher out there (possibly in our own organization) that can do it without costing assets or $20M/yr.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
When people say “You can never have too much pitching,” these are the situations that they are referencing.
Can't argue with you there. I certainly wouldn't be opposed to the Sox adding one more pitcher before the season starts. I just think Price would be a terrible choice given the assets and $$ it would cost to get him.

Last edited by Sargeant79; 02-01-2020 at 12:57 PM.
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  #25  
Old 02-01-2020, 01:52 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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The latest chatter has the Dodgers and Red Sox closing in on a deal to send Mookie Betts to the Dodgers. There are supposedly 2 different frameworks in place: a framework for only Betts that includes high-end prospects, and a framework for both Betts and David Price that includes middle-tier prospects.


What if the White Sox could help split the difference?


L.A. gets Betts ($27), Price ($32/$32/$32), and cash savings on Price ($12/$12/$12 retained) from Boston in exchange for those middle-tier prospects they already agreed upon, plus 3 PTBNL


The White Sox get Price ($20/$20/$20) and cash savings on Price ($5/$5/$5) from the Dodgers for Reynaldo Lopez and 2 middle-tier prospects to fill those PTBNL spots in the trade.



The Dodgers get what they want: Betts without having to give up high-end prospects or take on Price's salary


The Red Sox get what they want: salary relief ($47/$20/$20) and 3 more young players than they otherwise would have received



The White Sox get Price at a mid-level free agent salary they are equipped to pay ($15/$15/$15) in exchange for Lopez and another piece who likely will not really be missed.
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  #26  
Old 02-01-2020, 03:05 PM
TomBradley72 TomBradley72 is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
The latest chatter has the Dodgers and Red Sox closing in on a deal to send Mookie Betts to the Dodgers. There are supposedly 2 different frameworks in place: a framework for only Betts that includes high-end prospects, and a framework for both Betts and David Price that includes middle-tier prospects.


What if the White Sox could help split the difference?


L.A. gets Betts ($27), Price ($32/$32/$32), and cash savings on Price ($12/$12/$12 retained) from Boston in exchange for those middle-tier prospects they already agreed upon, plus 3 PTBNL


The White Sox get Price ($20/$20/$20) and cash savings on Price ($5/$5/$5) from the Dodgers for Reynaldo Lopez and 2 middle-tier prospects to fill those PTBNL spots in the trade.



The Dodgers get what they want: Betts without having to give up high-end prospects or take on Price's salary


The Red Sox get what they want: salary relief ($47/$20/$20) and 3 more young players than they otherwise would have received



The White Sox get Price at a mid-level free agent salary they are equipped to pay ($15/$15/$15) in exchange for Lopez and another piece who likely will not really be missed.
I wouldn't mind Price at the "price" for 2020 (depth as we work through development/TJ recovery for Cease, Kopech and Rodon), but at his age-I don't think I want to be on the hook for the 2nd and 3rd year- and less attractive when giving up prospects vs. signing a guy like this as a FA.

It's basically replacing Lopez with Price and if everyone is healthy and productive, moving Gonzalez to a swing man role (assuming Cease and Kopech round out the rotation). I think I'd like to give Lopez one more shot before pulling the plug.
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  #27  
Old 02-01-2020, 03:21 PM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Originally Posted by TomBradley72 View Post
I wouldn't mind Price at the "price" for 2020 (depth as we work through development/TJ recovery for Cease, Kopech and Rodon), but at his age-I don't think I want to be on the hook for the 2nd and 3rd year- and less attractive when giving up prospects vs. signing a guy like this as a FA.

It's basically replacing Lopez with Price and if everyone is healthy and productive, moving Gonzalez to a swing man role (assuming Cease and Kopech round out the rotation). I think I'd like to give Lopez one more shot before pulling the plug.
I agree it's too soon to give up on Lopez.
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  #28  
Old 02-01-2020, 03:32 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by TomBradley72 View Post
I wouldn't mind Price at the "price" for 2020 (depth as we work through development/TJ recovery for Cease, Kopech and Rodon), but at his age-I don't think I want to be on the hook for the 2nd and 3rd year- and less attractive when giving up prospects vs. signing a guy like this as a FA.

It's basically replacing Lopez with Price and if everyone is healthy and productive, moving Gonzalez to a swing man role (assuming Cease and Kopech round out the rotation). I think I'd like to give Lopez one more shot before pulling the plug.
If Lopez were going into his 2nd full season, I would agree, but he has been up here for 2 full seasons, part of a 3rd season, and he was up for part of a 4th season in Washington. We’re talking about 2 organizations and 80 big-league starts, with nothing we can really point to and say he has improved.

Sure, we’re talking about a difference in salary of $14.5/$12-13?/$8-10? for those 3 years, which is a slight overpay on the difference in WAR between Price and Lopez, but it also dovetails nicely with Keuchel. All of a sudden, a rotation that had no quality lefties has a decent chance to provide 2 quality lefties for the same AAV that the top-tier free agents got. Plus, it doubles the chances of getting at least 1 quality lefty should the injury bug strike. Plus, we don’t have any noteworthy lefties on the farm.
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  #29  
Old 02-01-2020, 03:52 PM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
Giolito was an ace last year but he finished poorly and had to be shut down. He has to show he can do it over a full year
I wouldn't say that Giolito "finished poorly". His August was very good and his September WHIP was 0.79, he just gave up some ill timed home runs which skewed his ERA for the month.

Quote:
Cease needs to prove he isnít the next Carson Fulmer and find his command for great stuff in the bigs
Cease's "stuff" is a notch above Fulmer's, so I don't think the two are comparable. But yes, he needs to show that he can command his fastball and put guys away.

Quote:
Lopez needs to prove he will work hard enough to be worth anything. This is probably his last chance in the rotation this year
All Lopez really needs to do is show that he can be an effective 4th or 5th starter. Last year was so uneven for him, but his slider is crucial for him to fix in 2020. I've seen people complain about his fastball, but the truth is that Reynaldo's four seamer has good movement on it, better than average actually.

Quote:
Gonzalez just has to prove he isnít toast
In the limited action I saw him in last year, he looked adequate for a 5th starter.

The rotation in general has a lot of potential and the floor is much higher than it's been in a long time. The White Sox have not had a starting rotation where the five main pitchers have not all had ERAs below 5 since 2015, I think that this year they will.
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  #30  
Old 02-01-2020, 05:06 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Cease needs to prove he isnít the next Carson Fulmer and find his command for great stuff in the bigs
I completely agree about the variance, but let's be real: Cease is already better than Fulmer.
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