Our future is so bright, we have to wear shades

[Hitmen77]

Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187

The core in 2014 was Sale, Quintana, Abreu and Eaton, I think you could also argue that Avi was a part of that. The idea was that they were the four guys you built around. Semien, Gillaspie, etc. were cost-effective guys who could give you adequate levels of production to supplement that core. They were NOT part of the core itself.

The core this time around is Giolito, Moncada, Jimenez and Anderson at the major league level and then you have Robert and Madrigal in the minors.

If everyone of those guys click, then we're all set. But if there are set backs, regressions or injuries, well, then we have some issues and the question that I think has yet to be answered is can the Sox go outside of the organization and successfully augment the talent that they have? In 2014-2016 they couldn't, now the same guys are going to try again and I am at least a bit dubious as to whether or not they can be successful this time but I will say in Hahn's defense, I think that ownership might put restrictions on the front office that would make it hard for anyone to successfully augment the talent on this roster.

...and Cease and Kopech. I'd also argue that Andrew Vaughn is part of that future core. So, that's 6 solid core position players and 3 pitchers vs. 2 and 2 from 2014. Sorry, I'm still not seeing the resemblance.

Anderson and Moncada are already here and playing at an All-Star level. They're not maybes. Jimenez is here too, and while there's been a learning process for him this year, he looks like the real deal at the plate to me. Robert and Madrigal are blue chip prospects who soared through the system this year. Yes, maybe and what if and nothing in life is guaranteed and so forth, but I'm baffled that any Sox fan would be anything but optimistic about both of them.

Let's be perfectly clear here - we're not even talking about guys like Collins, Sheets, Walker, and the other OF prospects being the core we're counting on to click here if everything goes right with them. We're talking about 6 position players with elite hitting ability. They're all way above Avi's and Eaton's talent level.

If the whole point of the argument here is that any player can get hurt, regress, fizzle out...well yeah, nothing in life is absolutely guaranteed. But that can be said about any team with top talent on the rise.

[rainbow6]

Is my math right - the "core" that we obtained in the first two major trades (Moncada, Giolito and Lopez) are under control for four more years?

Although we won't have to deal with the service time issue the Cubs do (aren't nearly all of their core FA at the same time?) I can't help but think the next four years is the first "window" we have to win a Championship.

I'm not saying to start trading prime prospects for ML talent (although...)but I would hope that in 2020 we see the end of warm bodies trotted out there under the guise of "it doesn't reallymatter if we win.

Originally Posted by Hitmen77

...and Cease and Kopech. I'd also argue that Andrew Vaughn is part of that future core. So, that's 6 solid core position players and 3 pitchers vs. 2 and 2 from 2014. Sorry, I'm still not seeing the resemblance.

Anderson and Moncada are already here and playing at an All-Star level. They're not maybes. Jimenez is here too, and while there's been a learning process for him this year, he looks like the real deal at the plate to me. Robert and Madrigal are blue chip prospects who soared through the system this year. Yes, maybe and what if and nothing in life is guaranteed and so forth, but I'm baffled that any Sox fan would be anything but optimistic about both of them.

Let's be perfectly clear here - we're not even talking about guys like Collins, Sheets, Walker, and the other OF prospects being the core we're counting on to click here if everything clicks with them. We're talking about 6 position players with elite hitting ability. They're all way above Avi's and Eaton's talent level.

If the whole point of the argument here is that any player can get hurt, regress, fizzle out...well yeah, nothing in life is absolutely guaranteed. But that can be said about any team with top talent on the rise.

[Hitmen77]

The pitching core is not as deep as I'd like....and Cease and Kopech still have a lot to prove. Lots more question marks than our core lineup guys. But, I still like the upside of them plus Giolito.

Originally Posted by TomBradley72

I more worried about this brain trust placing the right bets on the FAs or veterans we need to trade for than i am about the prospects turning out.

Dunn, Keppinger, Laroche, Samardzija, etc- not much of a track record.

Agreed. This is my biggest concern. To become a championship team, they need to spend top dollar for at least one high-quality arm and one high-quality bat. Otherwise, this effort will likely fall short. This FO's track record in that regard isn't good. But that's a different argument than whether our internal core is anything to get excited about.

[Hitmen77]

Originally Posted by rainbow6

Is my math right - the "core" that we obtained in the first two major trades (Moncada, Giolito and Lopez) are under control for four more years?

Although we won't have to deal with the service time issue the Cubs do (aren't nearly all of their core FA at the same time?) I can't help but think the next four years is the first "window" we have to win a Championship.

I'm not saying to start trading prime prospects for ML talent (although...)but I would hope that in 2020 we see the end of warm bodies trotted out there under the guise of "it doesn't reallymatter if we win.

Agreed. I hope the FO is ready to start paying for top talent to add to this team this winter. No more Alonsos and Jays. I have my doubts, but I'll reserve judgement until the offseason plays out.

[asindc]

Originally Posted by DumpJerry

It is absolutely astounding that when I talk to non-WSI die-hard life-long White Sox fans they cannot contain their excitement for 2020 and beyond. It is almost as if this place is occupied by jealous Cub fans who know their window is closing and want to piss on our parade as much as possible.

In my work, I come into contact with many Sox fans. I always start the conversation by merely acknowledging we're Sox fans and then the other person always goes off on how great things are looking and how 2020 and beyond will be one extremely enjoyable decade to be a Sox fan.

My experience as well.

[GoSox2K3]

Originally Posted by DumpJerry

It is absolutely astounding that when I talk to non-WSI die-hard life-long White Sox fans they cannot contain their excitement for 2020 and beyond. It is almost as if this place is occupied by jealous Cub fans who know their window is closing and want to piss on our parade as much as possible.

In my work, I come into contact with many Sox fans. I always start the conversation by merely acknowledging we're Sox fans and then the other person always goes off on how great things are looking and how 2020 and beyond will be one extremely enjoyable decade to be a Sox fan.

Originally Posted by asindc

My experience as well.

Seriously. The only people in my daily contact who keep insisting to me that the Sox rebuild is likely to flop....that Anderson and Moncada are flukes and Robert could be a bust and so forth.... are Cubs fans. Those Cubs fans should have a beer with some of the fans here.

[voodoochile]

The only part that gets me is how damned sure folks are that this is all going to fail when historically players rated as high as Sox prospects have been have performed well in the majors, especially Moncada, Robert and Jimenez should all be expected to have excellent careers as middle order bats based on historical trends.

I'm as optimistic about the rebuild as almost anyone on these forums and I admit I am still waiting for things to play out to see if my expectations are correct, but I don't see anyone saying "sure fire World Series winners" in 2022 (or whatever), but on the other side I see plenty of people willing to step out and say, "this will never work and we're doomed for a long time until we start the next rebuild".

I find that perspective odd, though I suppose it's just a way of hedging your bet and saving yourself from pain. If the rebuild fails you can simply point and laugh and say "told you so" but if it succeeds you can say "GO SOX!" and pretend you never doubted things at all or maybe offer up a "Glad to be wrong!" and go about your business after having rained **** on everyone's head for weeks and months and years.

So damned shell-shocked people don't know how to be happy when things are finally turning our way again...

[Nellie_Fox]

Originally Posted by voodoochile

So damned shell-shocked people don't know how to be happy when things are finally turning our way again...

I'm 70 years old. I've seen exactly two World Series in my lifetime. I was ten years old for one of them. It's hard to get all optimistic.

[Frater Perdurabo]

Originally Posted by Tragg

After 3 years of auditions of Leury, Tilson, Cordell, Yolmer, several guys whose names escape me from year 1, the Sox have basically zilch. On the pitching side, they have Fry and Bummer. That's it. The drafts have been empty. They'be gotten nothing from their 2nd tier trades either. You can't fill 10 spots with free agents. And, of course, their talent evaluation of the 2nd tier veterans they shop for has been awful....it's so bad that it's hard to believe that they actually scout these players or use even the most basic analytics.

Yes, other than Bummer and maybe Fry (the jury is still out; relievers are notoriously hot and cold), those guys have proven that they are nothing more than bench players/AAAA fodder.

I still think there are plenty of opportunities for recent draftees and trade acquisitions (2016-present) to make meaningful contributions even if the 2019 season was rough from an injury and development standpoint. For instance:

Sheets might make a productive and inexpensive LH 1B/DH (to pair with Vaughn) where Vaughn plays almost every game but Sheets sits against most LH hitters;

There’s still five bullets in the chamber for a shot at filling an outfield slot among Rutherford, Walker, Basabe, Adolfo, and Gonzalez, even if it takes two of them platooning to get starter-level production against both RH and LH pitching.

Fulmer’s clock strikes midnight this March; if he doesn’t earn a bullpen job during Spring Training then he’s gone. But I still think there are enough interesting live arms - many of whom injuries have felled - that a few of them might eventually be bullpen contributors: Burdi, Hamilton, Hansen, etc. Relievers are enough of a crapshoot that as long as they have options remaining you can keep them on the 40-man roster throughout 2020. Beyond those names, Johnson and Parke have performed quite well in relief and could merit 2020 bullpen auditions.

Most of the top starting pitching prospects have made their MLB debuts. Deeper down the list, Dunning, Stiever, Pilkington, Lambert, Flores, and even recent draftees Thompson and Dalquist, still have both potential and trade value.

Finally, your statement that “drafts have been empty” completely ignores the near-certainty of Madrigal and Vaughn.

[LITTLE NELL]

Originally Posted by Nellie_Fox

I'm 70 years old. I've seen exactly two World Series in my lifetime. I was ten years old for one of them. It's hard to get all optimistic.

Same scenario except 3 years older, I would put myself in the guarded optimism crowd, this way I won't be horribly upset if the rebuild fails.
I think we have a pretty good nucleus but the rebuild will only succeed with wise free agent signings which so far under Hahn and of course JR have been abysmal.

[Noneck]

Originally Posted by Nellie_Fox

I'm 70 years old. I've seen exactly two World Series in my lifetime. I was ten years old for one of them. It's hard to get all optimistic.

Im 65 and have only remembered 1 world series and 5 playoff appearances. Now 8 straight years of sub .500 baseball. Its really tough to be too optimistic until something actually happens, not something looks like it might happen.

[TomBradley72]

Originally Posted by Hitmen77

The pitching core is not as deep as I'd like....and Cease and Kopech still have a lot to prove. Lots more question marks than our core lineup guys. But, I still like the upside of them plus Giolito.



Agreed. This is my biggest concern. To become a championship team, they need to spend top dollar for at least one high-quality arm and one high-quality bat. Otherwise, this effort will likely fall short. This FO's track record in that regard isn't good. But that's a different argument than whether our internal core is anything to get excited about.

OK- I'm very optimistic of the core-

Outfield- Eloy, Robert + FA/trade (w/Rutherford, Walker, Adolfo, Basabe in the mix)
Infield- Moncada, Anderson, Madrigal, Vaughn (w/Sheets in the mix)
Catcher- not much here
DH- Collins along with some of the guys mentioned abover
Starting Pitching- Giolito, Kopech, Lopez, Cease, Dunning, Rodon (plus Lambert, Flores, Stiever in the mix)

Very strong core- how we add to it is the key variable

[ChiTownTrojan]

Originally Posted by TomBradley72

OK- I'm very optimistic of the core-

Outfield- Eloy, Robert + FA/trade (w/Rutherford, Walker, Adolfo, Basabe in the mix)
Infield- Moncada, Anderson, Madrigal, Vaughn (w/Sheets in the mix)
Catcher- not much here
DH- Collins along with some of the guys mentioned abover
Starting Pitching- Giolito, Kopech, Lopez, Cease, Dunning, Rodon (plus Lambert, Flores, Stiever in the mix)

Very strong core- how we add to it is the key variable

I agree the core is looking good. The only thing that leaves me a bit hesitant about the rebuild is that there is a pretty steep fall in the minors after the top guys. If any of the main guys fail (which happens sometimes even for top prospects), the problem will have to be solved via FA.

That said, unlike most I'm confident that when the time is right (which hopefully starts this winter), the team will spend some money to fill in the holes. They almost HAVE to spend money this winter, payroll is so low and the opportunity is there to put together an interesting/competitive young team.

I also think that once the team starts winning, JR will be willing to increase payroll even higher if that's what's need to maintain the winning. Remember, in 2006 the Sox had a top-5 payroll in MLB.

Regarding signing pitchers to big long-term deals, I think the market is changing and even the big-spending teams are no longer going to be as willing to sign guys to 8-year deals knowing they're not going to get the production for the last half. Last offseason the biggest FA signing of a SP was Corbin (6-years, $140 M), and after him there was nobody even close. Cole is a similar age and has been better than Corbin over the past two years, but I think you'll see the difference in their contracts in dollars, not years. At least I hope so. I could see the Sox going 6-years, $180 M for Cole, and that very well could be the best offer he gets.

[Flight #24]

Originally Posted by Tragg

One of the problems that they had is that you need to augment within your organization as well. Back then they foolishly traded or let go some of the second tier pieces and prospects; but even at that they didn't develop enough. You should be able to find 1 or 2 dependable position players and a few pitchers (bullpen) from your second tier prospects. After 3 years of auditions of Leury, Tilson, Cordell, Yolmer, several guys whose names escape me from year 1, the Sox have basically zilch. On the pitching side, they have Fry and Bummer. That's it. The drafts have been empty. They'be gotten nothing from their 2nd tier trades either. You can't fill 10 spots with free agents. And, of course, their talent evaluation of the 2nd tier veterans they shop for has been awful....it's so bad that it's hard to believe that they actually scout these players or use even the most basic analytics.

Another problem is that they made these trades of good, but unranked, prospects for good but not great veterans on 1 or 2 year contracts. You get the player generally for a lower salary than if he was a FA. Quality organizations are on the other side of those asset-depleting trades.
The Sox should be mostly about pitching.

I'm confused, are you noting that they found "dependable position players" in Leury/Yolmer? Because those 2 seem like they are solid reserves or fringe starters (particularly Leury). Or are you saying you need/should have more?

Also I look at the 2020 roster as including: Abreu, Madrigal, Anderson, Moncada, McCann, Jimenez, Robert, Collins, Leury, Yolmer. That's 10 slots, with say 3 reserve slots available. Pitching wise, there's Giolito, Cease, Lopez, Bummer, Fry, Colome then if you include Kopech, that's 4 starters and 3 relievers.

So your argument is that a team that's looking for one top end starter, a couple of middle inning relievers and a couple of reserve position players is somehow failing? If your argument is the draft ability, then sure it's historically been bad, but by many accounts improved in the past few years (and in the list above, Madrigal, Tim, Robert, Collins, Yolmer, Bummer, Fry are drafted/signed - could consider Abreu as well but I can see an argument that he's more like a big ticket FA).

I don't have data on this, but anecdotally, I have to believe that most teams go into the offseason looking for a couple of relievers and a couple of reserve position players or a lower-end starting player. And many go in looking for an upper end starting pitcher. Looking at the list above, sure there's risk on some of those guys, but my sense is if you believe in Robert, Madrigal, Collins, Cease, Lopez then the Sox are in substantially better position than most teams.

[HomeFish]

I guess I agree with the people who say they're not worried about Jimenez/Moncada/Anderson so much as they're worried about the ability of the team to fill in gaps in the core with FA signings.

Part of the reason to be optimistic about the 2020 White Sox is the sheer amount of payroll flexibility. If they can't leverage that advantage, then it's going to be a disappointing decade.

And on top of the Sox generally being poor judges of talent, you have to factor in that a lot of the top tier FAs took themselves off the market recently with team-friendly extensions.