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  #31  
Old 09-30-2019, 10:16 AM
blurry blurry is offline
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Originally Posted by HomeFish View Post

Further, below Cole and maybe Strasburg (who might not opt out and might want to go home to...wait for it...San Diego), I'm skeptical of the value of the FA pitchers.
I keep seeing Sox fans' desire for Madbum, but he 1- has a ton of miles on his arm already and 2- he isn't getting any better than a ~2.5ish WAR player. Or, I should say he probably likely isn't getting better.
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  #32  
Old 09-30-2019, 10:22 AM
HomeFish HomeFish is offline
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I keep seeing Sox fans' desire for Madbum, but he 1- has a ton of miles on his arm already and 2- he isn't getting any better than a ~2.5ish WAR player. Or, I should say he probably likely isn't getting better.
Yeah, I'm skeptical that MadBum has much left. I wouldn't want the Sox to sign MadBum just so they can say they made a move on an FA pitcher. Cole and Strasburg, sure, but if you miss out on those it's not clear that FA is the route to go to acquire pitching.
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  #33  
Old 09-30-2019, 11:12 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by HomeFish View Post
Yeah, I'm skeptical that MadBum has much left. I wouldn't want the Sox to sign MadBum just so they can say they made a move on an FA pitcher. Cole and Strasburg, sure, but if you miss out on those it's not clear that FA is the route to go to acquire pitching.
Strasburg, while logging four hundred or so less innings, is older than Bumgarner and has a greater injury history.
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  #34  
Old 09-30-2019, 11:53 AM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by Grzegorz View Post
Strasburg, while logging four hundred or so less innings, is older than Bumgarner and has a greater injury history.
The enticement of MadBum is that he's been incredibly durable and consistent over the years, pitching well over 200 innings 7 different seasons. He's done that, and has been able to excel deep into Oct, when many other pitchers run out of gas in Sept. His non soft tissue injuries appear to be completely behind him as well. So, even if he isn't the low 3 ERA guy he used to be, a mid to high 3 ERA with the ability to go deep into Oct will be incredibly valuable to a team that wants to win a WS. Him being a lefty also is a nice fit for the Sox's righty heavy rotation.

On a per game basis, Strasburg is the better pitcher. Getting him at a high AAV for 4-5 years would be amazing. He's roughly averaged 27-28 starts a year the last 8 seasons, with a few injury free campaigns mixed in there including the most recent. The years of having tons of 200 inning pitchers appears to be over. There's a lot of value in 150+ innings, especially from a top flight guy.
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  #35  
Old 09-30-2019, 12:14 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by blurry View Post
I keep seeing Sox fans' desire for Madbum, but he 1- has a ton of miles on his arm already and 2- he isn't getting any better than a ~2.5ish WAR player. Or, I should say he probably likely isn't getting better.
It's not that MadBum would be preferable to Cole or Strasburg, but he is a realistic target for a team that has an extensive history of treating free agent starters like lepers.

I have been looking through previous rosters, and unless I missed someone, it looks like the largest dollar amount that this team has ever given to a free agent starting pitcher is the $20 million Jaime Navarro contract. That is just absurd.
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  #36  
Old 09-30-2019, 02:19 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Contend? Not in 2020, but we should see a significant jump in offensive production and defensive consistency given the younger players on the team will have had another year of getting comfortable. Assuming those players don't take a step back and Robert and Madrigal can actually handle MLB pitching we should see a jump in offensive production.

Of course Gio needs to continue his dominance and Cease and Kopech both need to perform. Jury is out on Lopez but he really needs to find more consistency if he's going to be counted on.

Results and contention next year will come down FA acquisitions and continued development from the young players on the team, but we could well see them pushing toward WC contention if things go well and the window should crack wide open in 2021, but again, that's going to depend on who the team acquires to fill the holes and how well/soon the next tier of players develops.
I think that point is being missed by some fans. 2020 isn't a go-for-broke year for this team. They obviously need to take another big step forward, but that might mean an 85-win season or, as you say, WC contention if things break the right way. I'd love to seem them make the post-season in 2020, but the window is hardly slamming shut if they don't.

Hahn has talked about RF and DH being the main lineup need this winter. We'll see if they follow up those words with actions. Two quality pick-ups there would sure look good in a lineup with Yoan, TA, Eloy, Abreu, Robert, McCann/Collins, and Madrigal.

I hope they're looking to get at least one high-end starter. Preferably a serviceable 4th or 5th starter to a shorter-term deal, too.

Some of these moves may take place next off-season and not all in one winter.
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  #37  
Old 09-30-2019, 02:23 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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It's not that MadBum would be preferable to Cole or Strasburg, but he is a realistic target for a team that has an extensive history of treating free agent starters like lepers.

I have been looking through previous rosters, and unless I missed someone, it looks like the largest dollar amount that this team has ever given to a free agent starting pitcher is the $20 million Jaime Navarro contract. That is just absurd.

Ouch. That has to change if this FO is serious about building a pennant contender. To paraphrase Marty McFly, I hope history is gonna change.
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  #38  
Old 09-30-2019, 02:23 PM
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I think that point is being missed by some fans. 2020 isn't a go-for-broke year for this team. They obviously need to take another big step forward, but that might mean an 85-win season or, as you say, WC contention if things break the right way. I'd love to seem them make the post-season in 2020, but the window is hardly slamming shut if they don't.

Hahn has talked about RF and DH being the main lineup need this winter. We'll see if they follow up those words with actions. Two quality pick-ups there would sure look good in a lineup with Yoan, TA, Eloy, Abreu, Robert, McCann/Collins, and Madrigal.

I hope they're looking to get at least one high-end starter. Preferably a serviceable 4th or 5th starter to a shorter-term deal, too.

Some of these moves may take place next off-season and not all in one winter.
80-85 wins would be enough for them to be in WC contention most of the season.
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  #39  
Old 09-30-2019, 03:28 PM
blurry blurry is offline
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Ouch. That has to change if this FO is serious about building a pennant contender. To paraphrase Marty McFly, I hope history is gonna change.
I'm guessing the Angels offer Cole a Scherzer-like contract, 7 years and $210M total. I'm guessing it'll take 8 years and $240M.

If they backloaded the crap out of that contract, I'm betting Jerry might actually let it happen.
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  #40  
Old 09-30-2019, 04:01 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
80-85 wins would be enough for them to be in WC contention most of the season.

Short of signing a marquee starter and above average RF, as well as multiple bullpen pieces, I have a hard time envisioning how we compete next year. If we sign nothing but innings fodder and torn bandaids (like last year), the injury potential in our rotation makes it hard for me to envision next year we're going to hit this years win total.

Now if they go out and sign one each of Cole/Strausburg and Castellanos/Ozuna...then sure. If everything breaks right they'll be right around .500.
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  #41  
Old 09-30-2019, 04:16 PM
hdog1017 hdog1017 is offline
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I think the Sox will be "better" just by the division getting worse.

Cleveland might unload some guys, Minnesota may have outplayed themselves this year and might regress, and Kansas City/Detroit are active dumpster fires.
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  #42  
Old 09-30-2019, 04:56 PM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
80-85 wins would be enough for them to be in WC contention most of the season.
Most years it would but this year the second wild card winner won 96 games, last year the second wild card winner won 97 games.

And while I know you are not advocating for this (and I'm not sure anyone here is) I think the idea of building a team that can win 80-85 games and hope for some lucky breaks is a bad idea and what led to the disappointments of 2015 and 2016.

Jim Margalus had a great post this morning about the season and where things stand with the rebuild (the positives, the negatives and why some people are anxious). https://www.soxmachine.com/2019/09/3...ier-heres-how/
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  #43  
Old 09-30-2019, 05:29 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Most years it would but this year the second wild card winner won 96 games, last year the second wild card winner won 97 games.

And while I know you are not advocating for this (and I'm not sure anyone here is) I think the idea of building a team that can win 80-85 games and hope for some lucky breaks is a bad idea and what led to the disappointments of 2015 and 2016.

Jim Margalus had a great post this morning about the season and where things stand with the rebuild (the positives, the negatives and why some people are anxious). https://www.soxmachine.com/2019/09/3...ier-heres-how/
The .500-ish team flirting with Wild Card contention is acceptable, if this is viewed as a 2-year process instead of a 1-year process. Itís perfectly reasonable to do the free agency shopping over 2 offseasons instead of 1, as long as the TOR starter is this yearís headliner. Then go all-out for Betts next year, hopefully with a .500-ish season and a bunch of budding young talent as an extra selling point.

I like Mookie better than Machado or Harper anyway. Heís an easy guy to root for, like a lot of the other guys on our team.
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  #44  
Old 09-30-2019, 05:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
The .500-ish team flirting with Wild Card contention is acceptable, if this is viewed as a 2-year process instead of a 1-year process. Itís perfectly reasonable to do the free agency shopping over 2 offseasons instead of 1, as long as the TOR starter is this yearís headliner. Then go all-out for Betts next year, hopefully with a .500-ish season and a bunch of budding young talent as an extra selling point.

I like Mookie better than Machado or Harper anyway. Heís an easy guy to root for, like a lot of the other guys on our team.
I for one gave up on 2020 being a serious contention year when Kopech, Rodon and Dunning all went down needing TJS. IF those guys had all been pitching this year then this year would have been a lot better and next year would be a serious contention year. Now next year is this year but with more offense and 2021 is when things really heat up. I still want to see the team sign a FA SP and RF this off season.
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  #45  
Old 09-30-2019, 07:36 PM
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First couple of days after the season ends always feel weird. I am instinctively checking what time the game starts tonight and getting read to load MLB.TV on the iPad or other device, but alas... no baseball for voodoo...
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