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  #1  
Old 11-11-2019, 04:29 PM
barryball barryball is offline
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Post Sox Rebuild vs. Other Teams - More Balanced

I know we are entering year 4 of the rebuild and I know we have fans on both sides of the fence on progress to date. I am satisfied with the rebuild and we sort lost a year with the injuries to Kopech and Rodon among others. If we had both them last year there is a decent chance we could have won 10-15 games more than we did if they had played in 2019 vs. the "plug-in's" we had in 2019. In addition we probably would have been buyers at the trade deadline and made additional moves. We may not have made the playoffs but we would have been in the running and may have won 85-87 games. You can't plan for injuries so you need to keep stock-piling talent. Now to my point when I look at the other rebuilds of late (Cubs, Astros, Yanks, Redsox, Twins and Brewers) one thing I see as a positive for the White Sox is we are developing/collecting both position players and pitchers. The Cubs have to keep buying SP (Darvish and Lester) same with Astros (Verlander and Cole), Red Sox (Price and Sale (Trade but LT signinging) and Yanks. Brew crew and Twins have not spent on SP but not really developed a strong SP staff. The Sox are well positioned with home grown / acquired pitching talent with Giolito, Kopech, Lopez (Could be his year), Rodon (same here) and other like Dunning and Lambert. Plus we have core position players like Eloy, Moncada, Abreu, McCann, Madrigal (pending), Roberts (pending), Anderson, Vaughn (pending). Free agent SP acquisitions are expensive and crap-shoots...for every Lester there are FA SP's that fail. There is less likelihood of a FA failure with position players and they are less expensive. We will need a couple of FA SP's in 2020 but do not need a #1 and pay the $250mm that Cole will get. Yes, I like Cole but I also know if you sign him and he is so so or gets hurt the rebuild will stall with such a big $$ commitment. The Sox can't absorb the cost of failure like that (The Yanks, Dodgers, Redsox and Cubs) can because they have more revenue ...we have to be realistic. Go Sox!!
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  #2  
Old 11-11-2019, 05:01 PM
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Come here often? Be prepared for being told you are way off base by certain members here.

I, on the other hand, agree with you. I started a thread a few months back titled "our future is so bright, we have to wear shades." Some people disagreed.
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Old 11-11-2019, 06:13 PM
TDog TDog is offline
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The Cubs and Astros were at the bottom before they started their rebuilds. They didn't trade their best controllable players. Both depended heavily on high draft picks, although two of the three first-overall picks by the Astros this decade never played for them and are no longer in their systems.

There were two keys to the Cubs rebuild. There was trading Scott Feldman, who only started 15 games for the Cubs after they signed him as a free agent. It was probably their key free agent signing in the rebuild, considering what it got them a few months later. The other key was selecting Kris Bryant in the draft. The Astros passed him up with their first-overall pick, choosing instead to take a pitcher who is out of baseball, never having made it to the majors.

You are right about pitching for both the Astros and Cubs. Both have relied heavily on bringing in veteran pitchers rather than developing pitching prospects. Some think the White Sox will have to do that to contend, but the Cubs haven't really gotten what they had hoped from a veteran pitching pickup since they signed Lester. As expensive as free-agent pitchers are, and as fragile as they can be, there is a risk involved in signing them. The Astros didn't give up much for Verlander, and that worked out, although he's getting baseball old. They appear to have given up more for Greinke, and he's getting old as well. To get Greinke, they gave up their 2018 first-round pick, so they are in the mode of trading more high-profile prospects to stay where they are. The Cubs gave up their best prospects to get Quintana a couple of years ago as opposed to what they gave up to get Jake Arrieta and some useful relief help to rise to another level. It seems strange that a creative GM who was able to acquire Arrieta so cheaply would have to give up so much for Quintana.

Whether the White Sox develop enough of their pitching prospects to reach the World Series. Free agents can often prove a sucker bet. It can take a couple of years to realize your team has to cut costs before you've won a postseason series.

If you're looking for a rebuild formula, there really isn't one. The only similarity between the Cubs' and Astros' rebuilds are that all three teams have 100-loss seasons this decade and got better.
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Old 11-11-2019, 07:13 PM
barryball barryball is offline
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I agree that there is no definitive roadmap for rebuilds. I also agree there needs to be good luck and a shrewd trade... Cubs good luck with Bryant and Arrieta trade. Astros still have a young core of position players but will lose Cole and not sure how much longer verlander can be “verlander”. They will have to spend on pitching or trade prospects...not sure what is in the cubbard. Cubs run is almost done due to pitching woes and nothing on the farm and now they have to pay or trade their stars. That being said I would like a 4 year playoff run. I compare the rebuild similar to Astros with a young solid core but ours includes pitching. Yes, the White Sox did trade Sale and Quintana but we did not have a good young core to build / add to that team that would have put us over the top. This off season should be exciting with my Xmas wish list eyeing Castellanos, Wheeler and Encarnacion That gives us a SP, OF and DH.
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Old 11-11-2019, 09:58 PM
TDog TDog is offline
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Wheeler might be the best pitching free agent available this off-season. He's probably not going to cost as much and probably has his best years ahead of him. He has never really lived up to his expectations, let alone his potential, much like Jon Garland, who came into his own as part of the White Sox 2005 rotation. The Giants took Wheeler in the first round (the year after Posey, the year after Bumgarner the year after Lincecum), and, when they traded him at the 2011 deadline for Beltran, they expected him to blossom as Lincecum and Bumgarner had. Wheeler hasn't done enough in the majors to be grossly overpaid, as Cole and Strasurg, and probably Bumgarner will be, but he very well be pitching at or near he same level, maybe even better.

Or Wheeler could be a disappointment. But I don't believe Cole or Strasburg will be worth anywhere near the contracts they will demand.
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Old 11-12-2019, 05:07 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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But I don't believe Cole or Strasburg will be worth anywhere near the contracts they will demand.
I am sure you're right but that's the name of the game these days. If you have to overpay for pitching keep the duration low.

I suspect that even with the potential talent in their system this team, more than any other team on the rise will need to buy the pitching that gets them to the top.
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Old 11-12-2019, 10:00 AM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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It's notable that every one of the past few WS winners brought in high-priced pitching from outside the organization. Not just solid 2's-3's, but the absolute best pitchers in the game (Sherzer/Sale/Verlander/Lester/etc.). These were all guys who were very well established beforehand and got major contracts, not really "shrewd" scouting moves. I hope Hahn sees that and recognizes it as a necessary ingredient to be a true contender.

There are two exceptions I can think of where a team "bought low" on a player that developed into an ace - the Cubs with Arrieta, and the Astros with Cole. Most cases though it's been ponying up money in FA.
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Old 11-12-2019, 11:26 AM
I_Liked_Manuel I_Liked_Manuel is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
It's notable that every one of the past few WS winners brought in high-priced pitching from outside the organization. Not just solid 2's-3's, but the absolute best pitchers in the game (Sherzer/Sale/Verlander/Lester/etc.). These were all guys who were very well established beforehand and got major contracts, not really "shrewd" scouting moves. I hope Hahn sees that and recognizes it as a necessary ingredient to be a true contender.

There are two exceptions I can think of where a team "bought low" on a player that developed into an ace - the Cubs with Arrieta, and the Astros with Cole. Most cases though it's been ponying up money in FA.
I agree with this. It may end up being balanced, but I only see one starter that we can say with certainty is a legit MLB starter to count on. That seems unbalanced to me and the scary thing is that I could never in a million years expect to see the Sox active in free agency for top end starters
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Old 11-12-2019, 11:46 AM
HomeFish HomeFish is offline
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As we all know, Sale was not a free agent signing for the Red Sox. You CAN acquire a top of the rotation starter via trade rather than the FA market. This is the more likely and realistic route for the Sox to take.

They traded for Peavy and Colon, it's not entirely absurd that they might trade for a starter during or after the 2020 season.
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  #10  
Old 11-12-2019, 12:25 PM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I_Liked_Manuel View Post
I agree with this. It may end up being balanced, but I only see one starter that we can say with certainty is a legit MLB starter to count on. That seems unbalanced to me and the scary thing is that I could never in a million years expect to see the Sox active in free agency for top end starters
Actually you cannot count on any of them because they do not have a single consistent season under any one of their collective belts.
But, you can have faith.
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Old 11-12-2019, 12:55 PM
Huisj Huisj is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HomeFish View Post
As we all know, Sale was not a free agent signing for the Red Sox. You CAN acquire a top of the rotation starter via trade rather than the FA market. This is the more likely and realistic route for the Sox to take.

They traded for Peavy and Colon, it's not entirely absurd that they might trade for a starter during or after the 2020 season.
...and Freddy Garcia, and Jose Contreras, and Javy Vazquez. Trading for starters has been the White Sox way for a long time much more so than spending big on them in free agency.

Oh, and David Wells, and Todd Richie, and Edwin Jackson, and Francisco Liriano, and Jeff Samardzija, and James Shields. Any more I’m forgetting in the last 20 years?

Not all of those were “top” talent at the time of acquisition of course, though a lot of them have a bit of “Kenny gets his man” feel to them in that they were at one time near top talent.
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Old 11-12-2019, 01:00 PM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HomeFish View Post
As we all know, Sale was not a free agent signing for the Red Sox. You CAN acquire a top of the rotation starter via trade rather than the FA market. This is the more likely and realistic route for the Sox to take.

They traded for Peavy and Colon, it's not entirely absurd that they might trade for a starter during or after the 2020 season.
Sale cost the Red Sox the #1 prospect in baseball, plus a top-5 pitching prospect. That would be like the Sox giving up Robert and Kopech for a top-end starter. And then they would STILL have to sign him to that 9-figure deal. I just don't think the Sox have the prospect capital to make such a move, because they are going to be counting on all of there top prospects to contribute during the window.

That said, I am still holding out hope that the front office recognizes that they are in a unique spot, and that things will be different this time in free agency.
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Old 11-12-2019, 01:11 PM
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voodoochile voodoochile is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
Sale cost the Red Sox the #1 prospect in baseball, plus a top-5 pitching prospect. That would be like the Sox giving up Robert and Kopech for a top-end starter. And then they would STILL have to sign him to that 9-figure deal. I just don't think the Sox have the prospect capital to make such a move, because they are going to be counting on all of there top prospects to contribute during the window.

That said, I am still holding out hope that the front office recognizes that they are in a unique spot, and that things will be different this time in free agency.
And they've got TONS of money to spend. By all accounts after Abreu and other arb eligible players they want to keep they should have $100M+ to spend on FA.
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Old 11-12-2019, 01:19 PM
asindc asindc is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
It's notable that every one of the past few WS winners brought in high-priced pitching from outside the organization. Not just solid 2's-3's, but the absolute best pitchers in the game (Sherzer/Sale/Verlander/Lester/etc.). These were all guys who were very well established beforehand and got major contracts, not really "shrewd" scouting moves. I hope Hahn sees that and recognizes it as a necessary ingredient to be a true contender.

There are two exceptions I can think of where a team "bought low" on a player that developed into an ace - the Cubs with Arrieta, and the Astros with Cole. Most cases though it's been ponying up money in FA.
I don't think Hahn is the one who needs to recognize it.
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Old 11-12-2019, 01:33 PM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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I don't think Hahn is the one who needs to recognize it.
That's true. I should have said that I'm hoping Hahn convinces JR that if he wants to see another WS championship in his lifetime, the time is now to spend some cash.
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