BP Sox projection.

[sullythered]

Originally Posted by kittle42

Have to agree with munch here.

Amazingly... so do I. I think that's like twice in one week!

[blandman]

Originally Posted by spawn

Thank you. I haven't seen anyone here saying the Sox were the favorites to win the division. I have, however, seen people say that the Tigers winning isn't a 100% slam dunk because anything can happen during a 162 game season.

Wanna add a poll asking who's winning the Central?

[spawn]

Originally Posted by blandman

Wanna add a poll asking who's winning the Central?

Start one yourself. I don't care about pre-season predictions, in case you hadn't noticed.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by spawn

Start one yourself. I don't care about pre-season predictions, in case you hadn't noticed.

You can add it to this thread as a moderator, I mean.

I promise if you do it I will pick us.

[mahagga73]

Originally Posted by doublem23

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh

This must be what talking to a wall feels like

And you, my friend, are the wall. Unless I wanted to take a nap I probably wouldn't read it. Only thing I know is, their predictor computer needs a tuneup because a local animal at the Zoo would probably be more accurate predicting the season. It seems like you want everyone to ackowledge how important this publication is in the baseball world on one hand, yet you dismiss their laughably innacurate computer calculations as just "one of the things they do ". Well, news flash, "they are really ,really bad at it",at least as far as the White Sox go. They need to get the calculators out of their pockets and do a redo on the old predictor model from what I know.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by mahagga73

And you, my friend, are the wall. Unless I wanted to take a nap I probably wouldn't read it. Only thing I know is, their predictor computer needs a tuneup because a local animal at the Zoo would probably be more accurate predicting the season. It seems like you want everyone to ackowledge how important this publication is in the baseball world on one hand, yet you dismiss their laughably innacurate computer calculations as just "one of the things they do ". Well, news flash, "they are really ,really bad at it",at least as far as the White Sox go. They need to get the calculators out of their pockets and do a redo on the old predictor model from what I know.

Good Lord

Enjoy your self-inflicted ignorance

[mahagga73]

Originally Posted by doublem23

Good Lord

Enjoy your self-inflicted ignorance

your a real piece of work, self-inflicted ignorance ,OF WHAT?rotfl.Out. You have something to do with that publication, a writer, know somebody , or something. Nobody reacts like they just had their mother insulted over a baseball rag like that unless there is some connection.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by mahagga73

your a real piece of work, self-inflicted ignorance ,OF WHAT?rotfl.Out. You have something to do with that publication, a writer, know somebody , or something. Nobody reacts like they just had their mother insulted over a baseball rag like that unless there is some connection.

He's trying to explain where the results come from. They come from individual projections, which many people (even people working for major league clubs), take very seriously. There's so many players to get right that the team projections are usually a little further off. But they come from somewhere. And they are very relevant. Screaming about one team shows almost no understanding of the process at all.

[SoxNation05]

Haven't checked the thread since I posted in page 11, what did I miss?

[DSpivack]

Originally Posted by SoxNation05

Haven't checked the thread since I posted in page 11, what did I miss?

[sullythered]

Originally Posted by blandman

He's trying to explain where the results come from. They come from individual projections, which many people (even people working for major league clubs), take very seriously. There's so many players to get right that the team projections are usually a little further off. But they come from somewhere. And they are very relevant. Screaming about one team shows almost no understanding of the process at all.

But they're not, really. The individual projections are very relevant. They are worth paying attention too. It just doesn't work on the team level. It's a quirky little exercise that's there for fun, and nothing else. Again, individual projections can be used as a tool. I think even most of the people doing team projections would tell you that it's pretty meaningless. There are just way too many variables that can't be accounted for.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by sullythered

But they're not, really. The individual projections are very relevant. They are worth paying attention too. It just doesn't work on the team level. It's a quirky little exercise that's there for fun, and nothing else. Again, individual projections can be used as a tool. I think even most of the people doing team projections would tell you that it's pretty meaningless. There are just way too many variables that can't be accounted for.

They're relevant in that they give a good idea about how a season should go. People scream about how off they are on the Sox, but 7 games is not a lot to be off if you understand the model. Then 2005 and a 19 game swing comes into play. But that's the exception there. A perfect storm of everything playing out perfectly for one season, aided by a weaker division.

[voodoochile]

Originally Posted by sullythered

But they're not, really. The individual projections are very relevant. They are worth paying attention too. It just doesn't work on the team level. It's a quirky little exercise that's there for fun, and nothing else. Again, individual projections can be used as a tool. I think even most of the people doing team projections would tell you that it's pretty meaningless. There are just way too many variables that can't be accounted for.

Similar to VORP...

[mzh]

Originally Posted by blandman

They're relevant in that they give a good idea about how a season should go. People scream about how off they are on the Sox, but 7 games is not a lot to be off if you understand the model. Then 2005 and a 19 game swing comes into play. But that's the exception there. A perfect storm of everything playing out perfectly for one season, aided by a weaker division.

Considering that 7 games is very often the difference between a division title and 3rd place, or drafting 3rd or drafting 14th, I'd say it's pretty far off.

[blandman]

Originally Posted by mzh

Considering that 7 games is very often the difference between a division title and 3rd place, or drafting 3rd or drafting 14th, I'd say it's pretty far off.

And in divisions where the talent is close, evaluate as such. In divisions not as close, evaluate as such as well. It's why the Tigers have such a high percentage chance of winning the division this season according to BP. Talent in the division is not very close.