Tommy John to the HOF?

[Chez]

Originally Posted by A. Cavatica

That's a reasonable position and explanation. I think, however, that it is too lenient.

Consider the JAWS metric, which tries to balance career WAR and 7-year peak WAR. The average Hall of Famer scores 61.5, and Blyleven clears it by a mile. Even Curt Schilling, who I don't think belongs, clears that bar. But John, Kaat, and many other very good pitchers fall well short -- and even fall below Rick Reuschel, who in my mind is a clear "no".

Unfortunately for my position, there are Jack Morris and Catfish Hunter. If everyone as good as those guys also makes it in, the size of the HoF will triple! Do you want to see Javier Vazquez in the Hall?

Blyleven:
Starting Pitcher (17th):
94.4 career WAR / 50.3 7yr-peak WAR / 72.3 JAWS

Schilling:
Starting Pitcher (27th):
79.5 career WAR / 48.6 7yr-peak WAR / 64.1 JAWS

Average HOF P:
73.2 career WAR / 49.9 7yr-peak WAR / 61.5 JAWS

Reuschel:
Starting Pitcher (49th):
69.5 career WAR / 43.7 7yr-peak WAR / 56.6 JAWS

Sabathia:
Starting Pitcher (69th):
63.0 career WAR / 39.3 7yr-peak WAR / 51.2 JAWS

John:
Starting Pitcher (85th):
61.5 career WAR / 34.6 7yr-peak WAR / 48.0 JAWS

Buehrle:
Starting Pitcher (89th):
59.2 career WAR / 35.8 7yr-peak WAR / 47.5 JAWS

Pettitte:
Starting Pitcher (91st):
60.2 career WAR / 34.1 7yr-peak WAR / 47.1 JAWS

Pierce:
Starting Pitcher (101st):
53.4 career WAR / 37.8 7yr-peak WAR / 45.6 JAWS

Koosman:
Starting Pitcher (104th):
53.6 career WAR / 36.4 7yr-peak WAR / 45.0 JAWS

Kaat:
Starting Pitcher (109th):
50.4 career WAR / 38.1 7yr-peak WAR / 44.3 JAWS

Vazquez:
Starting Pitcher (142nd):
45.7 career WAR / 36.0 7yr-peak WAR / 40.9 JAWS

Colon:
Starting Pitcher (143rd):
46.1 career WAR / 35.6 7yr-peak WAR / 40.8 JAWS

Morris:
Starting Pitcher (168th):
43.4 career WAR / 32.5 7yr-peak WAR / 38.0 JAWS

Hunter:
Starting Pitcher (169th):
40.9 career WAR / 34.9 7yr-peak WAR / 37.9 JAWS

That's a very interesting analysis. Thanks for posting. I guess I've always thought that if 300 wins (one of those magic numbers) is an automatic ticket to Cooperstown, then 280+ wins should get you in after a long wait.