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  #346  
Old 11-16-2019, 05:22 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by KRS1 View Post
I’m going in with the mentality that the Yankees are going to land whoever they want, but that doesn’t stop us from pursuing anyone aggressively.
That would all depend on each individuals definition of aggressive. Since it is JR I am sure any effort that fails will turn into a torches and pitchforks event.

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Originally Posted by KRS1 View Post
There has to be a clear plan in place for every target and you have to the prepared to pay free and fair market value to even step up to the table. I want our offers to be swift and aggressive right off the bat.
Who defines free and fair market value? I do agree with you that the organization should be efficient when trading and pursuing FAs.

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I really wish I could have true insight into all the negotiations last offseason, would make an interesting read.
Interesting maybe; instructive definitely...
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  #347  
Old 11-16-2019, 10:28 AM
KRS1 KRS1 is online now
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Originally Posted by Grzegorz View Post
That would all depend on each individuals definition of aggressive. Since it is JR I am sure any effort that fails will turn into a torches and pitchforks event.


Who defines free and fair market value? I do agree with you that the organization should be efficient when trading and pursuing FAs
Every team and their bids dictate that value. JR can’t continue to say “that’s more than we find them to be worth” while losing out on all your targets to actually better your own franchise in FA while you end up with $30M in short term table scraps that help no one That’s just a cop out for cheapness. This is how JR and co earn their rep, by going in up to our necks for show but refusing to dive in all the way with the rest of the players. You go in with a well-researched and tempting offer and prepare to up the stakes at any moment.

As far as torches and pitchforks, can you blame people for getting sick of being told we’re working with 75 cents when we need a dollar? It’s not an invented criticism, it’s a very real way of existence for the fan base now to assume we’re only going to be around as a negotiation tool for FAs before they go get their serious money elsewhere. I hope that’s not the case this year, but it is not unwarranted or manufactured news.
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  #348  
Old 11-16-2019, 01:01 PM
TheVulture TheVulture is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Because you are equating rank with skill.


There is a world of difference between the value of guys at the top of that list and guys in the middle like MadBum. Unless we're happy with 70 wins we need to start adding guys that make the team better, not tread water. MadBum as our best offseason pitching signing is treading water. We might as well bring Nova back. There's less of a difference in the effect those two would have on the team than there is between a top starter and MadBum.
I'm not equating anything. You are claiming a 3.90 FIP equates to a backend starter with no previous mention of skill. Your entire argument has been based on FIP. I am disputing your conclusion. In fact, you've discounted any reference to skill in this thread

Going along with your reasoning, though, he's not in the middle, that's why I mention his 28th rank. 4.50 is the middle and Nova was 4.98. He can't be considered backend based on FIP if he is above average and in the top 30. There are 150 rotation slots in mlb. That puts him in the top 20%, Nova in the bottom 20%.

And this is only following your focus in FIP. If you look at his ERA, WHIP, K/BB etc over the last three years he ranks higher than that. It's frankly ludicrous to claim that Bumgarner vs. Nova is treading water.
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Last edited by TheVulture; 11-16-2019 at 01:15 PM.
  #349  
Old 11-16-2019, 01:45 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by TheVulture View Post
I'm not equating anything. You are claiming a 3.90 FIP equates to a backend starter with no previous mention of skill. Your entire argument has been based on FIP. I am disputing your conclusion. In fact, you've discounted any reference to skill in this thread

Going along with your reasoning, though, he's not in the middle, that's why I mention his 28th rank. 4.50 is the middle and Nova was 4.98. He can't be considered backend based on FIP if he is above average and in the top 30. There are 150 rotation slots in mlb. That puts him in the top 20%, Nova in the bottom 20%.

And this is only following your focus in FIP. If you look at his ERA, WHIP, K/BB etc over the last three years he ranks higher than that. It's frankly ludicrous to claim that Bumgarner vs. Nova is treading water.

Ivan Nova's WAR last year was 2.1, while MadBum's was 2.5. I think that's what you're not getting. The difference between a high 3 and a mid 4 FIP starter for a team is not that significant. It's basically going to be a wash. However, having a guy with a low 3 FIP usually means 5+ WAR.


Pitchers basically come in 3 varieties...top end guys, guys that don't belong in the league...and everyone else. MadBum and Nova are "everyone else".
  #350  
Old 11-16-2019, 03:39 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Bumgarner had a 3.2 fWAR. Nova had a 2.0 fWAR. The bWAR was closer, but still 2.8 to 2.1 in Bumgarner’s favor. Since the Fangraphs model is FIP-based instead of R/9-based, I would think that the fWAR is more relevant to this argument.

That difference is sizable, with a difference of about $10 million in value. That is not “treading water.”
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  #351  
Old 11-16-2019, 04:29 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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I think you've still proved my point, as the difference between the two is a lot smaller than you'd think, whereas an improvement in FIP the other way from MadBum shows a huge leap in fWar.
  #352  
Old 11-16-2019, 04:57 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
I think you've still proved my point, as the difference between the two is a lot smaller than you'd think, whereas an improvement in FIP the other way from MadBum shows a huge leap in fWar.
3.2 is worlds better than 2.0, and if a 4-year commitment at >$20 AAV is all it takes to secure that 3.2, I’m fine with it.

We all know Cole and Strasburg are not happening. The only other guy would be Wheeler, and he will get 5 years at $20+ AAV, which I also don’t see happening.

When the only left-handed pitching depth in this organization is Konnor Pilkington, a MadBum signing is a logical move.
  #353  
Old 11-16-2019, 06:21 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Bumgarner would be fine with me.

Failing that I still like the idea of taking David Price's contract off the Red Sox' hands, along with Benintendi and a modest amount of cash. The Sox would be overpaying for three years of Price, but they could add a lefthanded mid-rotation starter with a World Series ring, and a right fielder, for less than the value of the Bumgarner compensation pick.
  #354  
Old 11-16-2019, 08:16 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
Bumgarner would be fine with me.

Failing that I still like the idea of taking David Price's contract off the Red Sox' hands, along with Benintendi and a modest amount of cash. The Sox would be overpaying for three years of Price, but they could add a lefthanded mid-rotation starter with a World Series ring, and a right fielder, for less than the value of the Bumgarner compensation pick.
Why not both?

Price @ $32, Bumgarner @ $20, Benintendi solves a problem in the OF for 3 years.

These bad money players are all players that the Sox could use, plus they can help replenish the farm/supplement the major league roster:

David Price 3/$96 (with Andrew Benintendi or a package like Michael Chavis/Bobby Dalbec + Jay Groome)

Wil Myers 3/$67.5 (with a package like Taylor Trammell + a decent starting pitching prospect)

Jason Heyward 4/$96 (with a package like Nico Hoerner + Adbert Alzolay + Yovanny Cruz)

Alex Colome + any of our other arb guys can go in the deal, which would make it more justifiable to sacrifice that future value.

Say the Cubs want Colome + Yolmer. They are allocating those 2020 Heyward dollars in a better way, plus saving about $7 million in 2020, plus ridding themselves of Heyward’s 2021, 2022, and 2023 dollars. We get Nico Hoerner and 2 starting pitcher prospects to negate the overpay on Heyward, plus it’s not like Heyward is completely useless. An outfielder who hits lefty is on the wish list, and Heyward provides enough OBP and defense to fill that spot.

That Colome + Yolmer package may appeal to the Padres and Red Sox as well.

Or, instead of keeping the player we acquire, we can send the player to a 3rd team, eat half the contract, and get more prospects. Price @ $32 may not have much value, but Price @ $16 may be valuable enough to a contender to part with some halfway decent talent. Myers @ $11.25 is a lot more palatable than he is @ $22.5, as is Heyward @ $11.75 instead of $23.5.
  #355  
Old 11-16-2019, 08:53 PM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by KRS1 View Post
As far as torches and pitchforks, can you blame people for getting sick of being told we’re working with 75 cents when we need a dollar?
If we don't like it maybe walk away find another team to take your money and time.
  #356  
Old 11-16-2019, 09:41 PM
KRS1 KRS1 is online now
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Originally Posted by Grzegorz View Post
If we don't like it maybe walk away find another team to take your money and time.
  #357  
Old 11-16-2019, 10:25 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by Grzegorz View Post
If we don't like it maybe walk away find another team to take your money and time.
Funny you should mention that.

I have been watching a lot more of the Brewers the past few years, including 2 or 3 games each year at Miller Park. Those games are coming at the expense of White Sox games.

I also have gone on a weekend road trip to watch the Sox in another city the past few years. Those games also are coming at the expense of White Sox games.

The organization’s recent goofball behavior, coupled with a deteriorating fan experience at Sox games, have played a part in those decisions.
  #358  
Old 11-17-2019, 05:30 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Mohoney,

I believe no matter our philosophical differences with I believe we're both seeking out a better product when it comes to baseball entertainment.
  #359  
Old 11-17-2019, 07:01 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by Grzegorz View Post
Mohoney,

I believe no matter our philosophical differences with I believe we're both seeking out a better product when it comes to baseball entertainment.

How about Pomerantz out of the pen?


https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb
  #360  
Old 11-17-2019, 03:15 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
I was answering a post that pointed to MadBum being fine because his velocity is fine. The truth is that's foolish, and it's in the face of 3 years of evidence that he's a back end starter. And really...that's right now. Now that he's also getting older, I expect him to drop completely off the map in the next few years. Unless it's a one year, <$10 million deal, which ever team signs MadBum will do so at a massive overpay and will easily be the worst transaction of the offseason.
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
If he was a guy that didn't give up a ton of homers you'd have a point, but prior to his three year regression he gave up more than 20 homers 4 of 5 years. Increased home run rates are a hard sell when you consider his 2019 full season total isn't a big deal when...for instance, he gave up 26 home runs in 2015 but still managed a 3.24 FIP. He is, and always has been, a guy that gives up homers. What's really making him less effective...his h/9 is higher, his whip is higher, and his k rate is down from peak.



I don't want to be overly down on MadBum...I think he can still start games the next couple of years and not hurt you. But I think the White Sox need an ace or a 2, and he's not going to be either of those things. And on top of it, he's going to cost like he is.
I'm not trying to argue he is an elite pitcher still, I think he will be a safe investment in being a number 3 that will be a huge asset in the regular season and postseason for this team. Sure the Sox could use a 1 or 2, but Cole/Strasburg aren't happening, and Wheeler isn't that good or worth the risk in paying him that much due to injury history. The Sox also don't quite know what they have in Kopech, Cease, Lopez, Rodon, Stiever for the next few years, and there is a pretty decent chance at least 1 turns into a 1-2 pitcher type.

You don't want to be overly down on him? Think he can start games the next few years and not hurt you? You literally said a few posts earlier that he would be the single worst transaction of the offseason. That's quite a walk back.
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