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  #46  
Old 01-06-2020, 01:18 PM
asindc asindc is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
Obviously you have to guard the edges with 2 strikes on you, but players may well be willing to lay off the first two looking for a mistake on 3 just they way they do with guys painting the black on outer edge sliders now.
Of course, but having the high strike called more often (which I think would be the case since the high strike is the most consistently missed strike call by human umps from what these scouting eyes have seen) will give batters less room for error and conversely, pitchers more room for error.
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  #47  
Old 01-06-2020, 01:51 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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I think one way for batters to adapt to the high strike being called is to learn to foul off those pitches with two strikes. And when batters start fouling off more pitches, at-bats drag on, pitch counts go higher, and managers will go to the bullpen earlier. Then, those pitchers that don’t have perfect command will either miss down, resulting in hard hit balls, or they’ll miss up, resulting in balls being called if the batter doesn’t swing.

I’m all for an electronic strike zone calling rule book strikes, but let’s not pretend that it’s a panacea that will speed up the pace of play.

Rather, while I think walks, homers, and scoring will decrease, I also think that games will not move faster. We’ll just get more foul balls and longer ABs.
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  #48  
Old 01-06-2020, 04:58 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
Not really, you said that you wouldn't swing at high FBs period. Now only from the best pitchers in the league?

Hypothetically if you are such a bad high ball hitter, then you are not going to have a shot at Lopez's 98 MPH high heat (don't care about his spin rate, not going to make you any better at getting around on it.)

Not having the confidence to even foul off high FBs would be evident to every player, coach, teammate, etc in the league. Would get you a seat on the bench or sent to the minors.

Pitchers would be living up there or dropping called strikes in on breaking pitches all day. You can't really say you'd be ready for those, because you already said you are out on all high FBs, which are what called breaking ball strikes look like at first coming in.
I specifically said “pitch I can’t handle.” There are hitters out there who can hit Reynaldo Lopez fastballs to the Dan Ryan who would have no chance to do that with Verlander...because the spin he puts on the ball prevents it from dropping in the zone.
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  #49  
Old 01-06-2020, 05:20 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
I specifically said “pitch I can’t handle.” There are hitters out there who can hit Reynaldo Lopez fastballs to the Dan Ryan who would have no chance to do that with Verlander...because the spin he puts on the ball prevents it from dropping in the zone.

Again, there is no visual evidence that Lopez's high FB's are dropping into the zone. That would be pretty significant movement for the kind of velocity he has. Just continuously saying Lopez has a low spin rate in relation to other pitchers doesn't actually guarantee that it sinks. All pitchers have a unique combination of size (height, arm, hand, etc), grip, motion, arm angle, release point, among other variables that make a lot of these new non-result based metrics unreliable when comparing players.

What I'm telling you is, not all low spin rate FBs sink.
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  #51  
Old 01-06-2020, 10:06 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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The only 2 that looked liked they dipped were 92 and 93 MPH, which are either 2 seamers or he took a bit off and his natural run at that velo brought them down. He rarely throws at that velo though, he sits 94+.

The others were either straight as an arrow or had arm side run that leaked over the plate. Overall he missed his spots horribly as a result of a bit of 4 seam run across or just threw it in the completely wrong spot.

Nothing about this shows that his overarching issue is that his balls are sinking from the top edge of the strike zone or higher to the hitting zone. This was a bunch of home run videos that look similar to every other pitchers - high, middle, low spin rate.
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  #52  
Old 01-07-2020, 06:27 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
The only 2 that looked liked they dipped were 92 and 93 MPH, which are either 2 seamers or he took a bit off and his natural run at that velo brought them down. He rarely throws at that velo though, he sits 94+.

The others were either straight as an arrow or had arm side run that leaked over the plate. Overall he missed his spots horribly as a result of a bit of 4 seam run across or just threw it in the completely wrong spot.

Nothing about this shows that his overarching issue is that his balls are sinking from the top edge of the strike zone or higher to the hitting zone. This was a bunch of home run videos that look similar to every other pitchers - high, middle, low spin rate.
Look at the apex of the ball, and look where the ball ends. Now look at guys like Giolito and Verlander.

I’m not talking about a foot or more of break, like those 92 mph pitches. I’m talking about those few inches that defy the normal projection of the pitch.
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  #53  
Old 01-07-2020, 10:48 AM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Look at the apex of the ball, and look where the ball ends. Now look at guys like Giolito and Verlander.

I’m not talking about a foot or more of break, like those 92 mph pitches. I’m talking about those few inches that defy the normal projection of the pitch.
Lopez's ball drops about half an inch from a normal FB. Not a few inches....

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/pitch-movement

And you are now changing to it's apex as the reason for its tiny amount of sinking. It is not the low spin rate as you incorrectly continued to claim as fact for months.

You either don't understand pitching or are using a tiny variable that has no specific ties to success to claim as the reason for Lopez's failures.

Successful pitching combines a number of factors that all have to work together in order to succeed. Sometimes spin rate, horizontal/vertical movement, etc have literally nothing to do with it.

There are plenty of bad pitchers that have similar spin rates and projections to their FBs like Verlander and Giolito. There are also plenty of great pitchers that have similar average spin rates like Lopez. Just saying that if Lopez's ball had the same trajectory and action as Verlander/Giolito would mean success for him, is a complete misunderstanding of pitching. Lopez has a different arm action, release point, repertoire, etc that would change the individual effectiveness of that new FB for him personally. He also would still be missing spots, and that doesn't fix his average off-speed pitches which rely on good to perfect location every time they are thrown. The actual reasons.

Also just saying that "well if the ball continued on it's original projection out of the hand, it wouldn't have been a home run", doesn't work. That falls under missing your spot. A pitcher is accountable for movement that his pitches take. They are in the major leagues, they know what actions their pitches have and can have.

Last edited by ChiSoxNationPres; 01-07-2020 at 11:04 AM.
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  #54  
Old 01-07-2020, 02:14 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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1/2 inch worse than normal, which is defined as 92 mph @ 2200 rpm. In other words, his lack of spin makes his fastball “play down” about 4 or 5 mph from its real velocity.

In other words, his “stuff” is a lot closer to “pedestrian” than it is to “dazzling.” Like I said, he has 3 extra mph on a ball that doesn’t spin. You just saw a whole bunch of tape of them going over the fence.

At this point, if his spin is going to stay that low (which 3 years of stagnancy suggests to me will happen), there are 2 things to try. Either reinvent his arsenal with a 2-seamer and ditch the changeup, or put him in the bullpen to get more velocity and allow him to go “max effort” on every single fastball he throws.

Both of those approaches may require a trip to Charlotte.
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  #55  
Old 01-07-2020, 02:24 PM
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DumpJerry DumpJerry is offline
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If Frank Thomas was hired an Ump to work Home, there would be no need to this in the games he works.

They once did a study where they reviewed every called strike where he looked at the Ump with the crooked eye and it turned out he was wrong only 0.5% of the time. You can't get a better Batter's Eye than that.
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  #56  
Old 01-07-2020, 02:47 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
1/2 inch worse than normal, which is defined as 92 mph @ 2200 rpm. In other words, his lack of spin makes his fastball “play down” about 4 or 5 mph from its real velocity.

In other words, his “stuff” is a lot closer to “pedestrian” than it is to “dazzling.” Like I said, he has 3 extra mph on a ball that doesn’t spin. You just saw a whole bunch of tape of them going over the fence.

At this point, if his spin is going to stay that low (which 3 years of stagnancy suggests to me will happen), there are 2 things to try. Either reinvent his arsenal with a 2-seamer and ditch the changeup, or put him in the bullpen to get more velocity and allow him to go “max effort” on every single fastball he throws.

Both of those approaches may require a trip to Charlotte.
Worse? The fact of a pitch sinking does not make it "worse" than one that sinks less. This you are confused on. The successfulness of a FB is a combo of the velocity, location, and movement. A pitch can be above average velocity and not have a ton of spin. A pitch can have great location without a great spin rate. A pitch can have good movement without a plus spin rate.

You are completely misreading the stats. Just because the ball is in line with the vertical movement of "normal" MLB FB, doesn't make it worse. Strasburg's is like that among other great pitchers.

Yes, I saw a bunch of tape of the ball going no where near where the catcher set up.
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  #57  
Old 01-07-2020, 03:09 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
Worse? The fact of a pitch sinking does not make it "worse" than one that sinks less. This you are confused on. The successfulness of a FB is a combo of the velocity, location, and movement. A pitch can be above average velocity and not have a ton of spin. A pitch can have great location without a great spin rate. A pitch can have good movement without a plus spin rate.

You are completely misreading the stats. Just because the ball is in line with the vertical movement of "normal" MLB FB, doesn't make it worse. Strasburg's is like that among other great pitchers.

Yes, I saw a bunch of tape of the ball going no where near where the catcher set up.
No, I’m not at all confused. A 4-seam fastball meant to be thrown for a strike at the top of the zone loses effectiveness if it drops. Reynaldo Lopez’s 4-seam fastball is not an effective weapon right now; part of the reason is that his high fastballs that are meant to stay up are not staying up.

We should probably just leave it at this. You see no problem whatsoever, and I see a pretty significant one. All I know is that an .840 opponents’ OPS on 4-seam fastballs is awful, especially when it is thrown at that velocity.
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  #58  
Old 01-07-2020, 03:20 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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No, I’m not at all confused. A 4-seam fastball meant to be thrown for a strike at the top of the zone loses effectiveness if it drops. Reynaldo Lopez’s 4-seam fastball is not an effective weapon right now; part of the reason is that his high fastballs that are meant to stay up are not staying up.

We should probably just leave it at this. You see no problem whatsoever, and I see a pretty significant one. All I know is that an .840 opponents’ OPS on 4-seam fastballs is awful, especially when it is thrown at that velocity.
That's him missing his spot. If they aren't high enough- that's on location- not movement.

Reynaldo getting a new FB doesn't cure him from being wild in the zone.

I see a consistency issue like everybody else does. That needs to be fixed moving forward.
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  #59  
Old 01-07-2020, 03:25 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
That's him missing his spot. If they aren't high enough- that's on location- not movement.

Reynaldo getting a new FB doesn't cure him from being wild in the zone.

I see a consistency issue like everybody else does. That needs to be fixed moving forward.
If it’s too high, it doesn’t look hittable in the first place, and hitters aren’t even offering at it.

He has more problems than just working out the wildness.
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  #60  
Old 01-07-2020, 03:29 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
If it’s too high, it doesn’t look hittable in the first place, and hitters aren’t even offering at it.

He has more problems than just working out the wildness.
Great, then those aren't going to be homers, just purpose pitches.

If they are "sinking" as much as you say, then they will be called strikes then at the top of the zone.

If you watch them again, only the Cabrera homer did he actually hit his target.
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