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  #1  
Old 01-30-2020, 02:25 PM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Default ESPN ranks MLB lineups - Sox at #13

Just one spot behind the Twins (they expect a power regression), which if that happens to me would make the Sox the favorites in the division because their rotation is stronger and deeper.

This is based on analytics that rank each lineup on the following categories: contact, patience, power, speed, and balance. Unsurprisingly, the Sox are ranked low on patience, but I was surprised to see that they are #1 in the league in terms of balance. They say they have 3 core hitters (don't mention which 3 those are though), and 0 lineup holes.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/sto...ineup-rankings
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  #2  
Old 01-31-2020, 09:18 AM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
Just one spot behind the Twins (they expect a power regression), which if that happens to me would make the Sox the favorites in the division because their rotation is stronger and deeper.

This is based on analytics that rank each lineup on the following categories: contact, patience, power, speed, and balance. Unsurprisingly, the Sox are ranked low on patience, but I was surprised to see that they are #1 in the league in terms of balance. They say they have 3 core hitters (don't mention which 3 those are though), and 0 lineup holes.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/sto...ineup-rankings

I don't have a subscription to see the article, but interesting that they rank the Sox only 1 spot below the Twins. Sure, the Twins could expect a power regression, but didn't they also add Josh Donaldson? As far as their rotation goes, Bailey hasn't been good for a while and hasn't pitched 200 innings in seven years. Rich Hill turns 40 in March. But, I won't underestimate the Twins' ability to get productive seasons out of players they acquire.



As far as the Sox lineup goes, maybe #13 is about right. Regardless, I'm looking forward to seeing Yoan, Eloy, Anderson, Robert, Grandal, Abreu, and Encarnacion (not in that order) in the heart of that lineup. Madrigal could make things exciting, too. The first spring training game is 3 weeks from today!
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  #3  
Old 01-31-2020, 11:48 AM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
I don't have a subscription to see the article, but interesting that they rank the Sox only 1 spot below the Twins. Sure, the Twins could expect a power regression, but didn't they also add Josh Donaldson? As far as their rotation goes, Bailey hasn't been good for a while and hasn't pitched 200 innings in seven years. Rich Hill turns 40 in March. But, I won't underestimate the Twins' ability to get productive seasons out of players they acquire.



As far as the Sox lineup goes, maybe #13 is about right. Regardless, I'm looking forward to seeing Yoan, Eloy, Anderson, Robert, Grandal, Abreu, and Encarnacion (not in that order) in the heart of that lineup. Madrigal could make things exciting, too. The first spring training game is 3 weeks from today!
Sorry, I didn't realize it was an Insider article. I used to have a subscription but cancelled it a couple years ago, and sometimes I still can view the articles. It's weird.

Anyway, here's where the Sox rank on each of the categories they discuss:

Contact: 16
Patience: 26
Power: 9
Speed: 7
Balance: 1

Again, these scores are based on advanced metrics and projections (home park factors removed, for example), not subjective. I just thought some were interesting to see how the lineup is projected to shake out. Nice to see this team projected to be in the top 10 for the latter 3 categories, especially power and balance as those were problem areas just last year.
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  #4  
Old 01-31-2020, 01:53 PM
KRS1 KRS1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
Sorry, I didn't realize it was an Insider article. I used to have a subscription but cancelled it a couple years ago, and sometimes I still can view the articles. It's weird.

Anyway, here's where the Sox rank on each of the categories they discuss:

Contact: 16
Patience: 26
Power: 9
Speed: 7
Balance: 1

Again, these scores are based on advanced metrics and projections (home park factors removed, for example), not subjective. I just thought some were interesting to see how the lineup is projected to shake out. Nice to see this team projected to be in the top 10 for the latter 3 categories, especially power and balance as those were problem areas just last year.
Did they include Madrigal in the lineup? If not, he stands to improve those top two ranks quite a bit.
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  #5  
Old 01-31-2020, 03:06 PM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Originally Posted by KRS1 View Post
Did they include Madrigal in the lineup? If not, he stands to improve those top two ranks quite a bit.
Yes, he was included. I don't think Madrigal will improve the walk rate much over Yolmer, if at all. I think Yolmer had the most walks on the team last year, which is pretty sad because he didn't walk that much. Grandal is really the one who will help change that, but one guy can only do so much.
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  #6  
Old 01-31-2020, 08:10 PM
MarksBrokenFoot MarksBrokenFoot is offline
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The walk rate is what scares me most about this rebuild. It's the one area that almost never sees dramatic improvement. 7.5 out of 9 batters are going to attempt to hit their OBP next year.
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  #7  
Old 01-31-2020, 11:26 PM
KRS1 KRS1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
Yes, he was included. I don't think Madrigal will improve the walk rate much over Yolmer, if at all. I think Yolmer had the most walks on the team last year, which is pretty sad because he didn't walk that much. Grandal is really the one who will help change that, but one guy can only do so much.
I'm just excited to see him and the prospects of his style in the bigs. I get why people worry about him and the pick needed to acquire "a guy like him" but I think people are selling his overall prowess short.

I don't really like comps but if we're going straight black and white here, I've seen a lot of names mentioned for him that are his absolute floor. I think he fits a mold of quite a few greats. To say anything about his career either way at this point is a bit ridiculous, but we're talking about a guy the scouting community who watched him in whatever huge amount of games since HS. They liked him enough, despite whatever is being lobbed at him, to have him as a near consensus pick for us. That's not smoke and mirrors, that's high praise.

I just really like him and have been impressed, one way or another, every time I've seen him. Everyone needs to be patient and give him some time to mature, because I think he'll be well worth it.
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  #8  
Old 02-01-2020, 09:28 AM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KRS1 View Post
I'm just excited to see him and the prospects of his style in the bigs. I get why people worry about him and the pick needed to acquire "a guy like him" but I think people are selling his overall prowess short.

I don't really like comps but if we're going straight black and white here, I've seen a lot of names mentioned for him that are his absolute floor. I think he fits a mold of quite a few greats. To say anything about his career either way at this point is a bit ridiculous, but we're talking about a guy the scouting community who watched him in whatever huge amount of games since HS. They liked him enough, despite whatever is being lobbed at him, to have him as a near consensus pick for us. That's not smoke and mirrors, that's high praise.

I just really like him and have been impressed, one way or another, every time I've seen him. Everyone needs to be patient and give him some time to mature, because I think he'll be well worth it.
I mostly agree. The comps establish his ceiling as 50+ bWAR. His floor would be spending some part of his career as a part-time player, but I think he'd be incredible in that role: a defensive wizard with elite bat control, great speed and on-base skills is a big asset.

I think his throwback style will add a lot to the balance and watchability of the team, and if he reaches his ceiling, he's the second coming of Nellie Fox. To everyone who sees him as trade bait, imagine how dangerous it would be for a GM to trade him away from the White Sox while that ceiling remains in play.
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  #9  
Old 02-03-2020, 09:45 PM
Heffalump Heffalump is offline
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I think the Sox are going to hit the **** out of the ball this year and will surprise many of these "experts". The pitching will be the wildcard. Definitely better than last year, but can we keep up with the big boys into October? I'm not sure.
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  #10  
Old 02-04-2020, 12:04 PM
Flight #24 Flight #24 is offline
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If the Sox are a middle offensive team next year, then they should be near the top of the league in 2021 based on the youth and projected development.

Figure Moncada has a similar year to last (development offsets BABIP regression) - .915 OPS
Anderson regresses a bit on O (BABIP) but improves on D - .850 OPS
Eloy hits something like .280 with .350 OBP and .550 SLG (.900 OPS)
Abreu/Grandal/Encarnacion hit their averages (~.850 OPS)
Now you have Mazara, Robert, Madrigal, assume they are in the .750-.800 range yr1.

You can realistically have 2 of the 3 up in the .900 range in yr 2, plus add in Andrew Vaughn to offset any decline in the Abreu/Encarnacion duo in 2021. And I fully expect at least one of Eloy/Moncada to get to 1.000 OPS by 2021.

A lineup where everyone is hitting .850-.900 OPS or better?
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  #11  
Old 02-04-2020, 12:47 PM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Here are USA Today's pre-season predictions. They have the Sox at 83 wins in 3rd place. Twins in 1st (94 wins) and Tribe in 2nd (86 wins).
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...ls/4649827002/

By the way, they have the Bad Guys on the North Side finishing 4th at 82 wins. Baltimore, Detroit, Miami, and Pittsburgh are all picked to have triple-digit loss totals.
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  #12  
Old 02-04-2020, 01:45 PM
blurry blurry is offline
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83 wins is a safe bet. There's a lot of unknown and potential volatility on the roster with all the younger players.
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  #13  
Old 02-04-2020, 02:42 PM
asindc asindc is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
Here are USA Today's pre-season predictions. They have the Sox at 83 wins in 3rd place. Twins in 1st (94 wins) and Tribe in 2nd (86 wins).
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...ls/4649827002/

By the way, they have the Bad Guys on the North Side finishing 4th at 82 wins. Baltimore, Detroit, Miami, and Pittsburgh are all picked to have triple-digit loss totals.
83 seems like a reasonable total, with about a 5-game swing either way.

I'm a bit surprised that they have Ariz. finishing 2nd above SD.
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  #14  
Old 02-04-2020, 03:50 PM
longtimefan longtimefan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
Here are USA Today's pre-season predictions. They have the Sox at 83 wins in 3rd place. Twins in 1st (94 wins) and Tribe in 2nd (86 wins).
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...ls/4649827002/

By the way, they have the Bad Guys on the North Side finishing 4th at 82 wins. Baltimore, Detroit, Miami, and Pittsburgh are all picked to have triple-digit loss totals.
I know everyone like these predictions (especially if it favors their team) but they really are of limited value. There is no way to predict injuries, which teams will jell, which players will improve or regress, or who might be added (or subtracted) before the trade deadline.
BTW, if they had predicted the Sox winner of the division, I would have bought into the article 100%.
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  #15  
Old 02-05-2020, 01:07 PM
Jollyroger2 Jollyroger2 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asindc View Post
83 seems like a reasonable total, with about a 5-game swing either way.

I'm a bit surprised that they have Ariz. finishing 2nd above SD.
I'm on board with 83 as well, that seems like a reasonable improvement with the additions, pending injuries, unexpected regressions or leaps in progress for some of the younger players.
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