White Sox Interactive Forums
What's The Score?

Welcome
Go Back   White Sox Interactive Forums > Baseball Discussions > What's The Score?
Home Chat Stats Register Blogs FAQ Calendar Mark Forums Read


Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #46  
Old 07-17-2018, 09:14 AM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Lakeview
Posts: 22,942
Default

I question whether we are going to see the Sox move anyone except Shields and Soria - and I suppose any other bullpen arms if a team is asking.

All-Star or not, Abreu is having easily his worst season. It is probably not worth moving him for what the return would be. I saw Riley Pint from COL (no. 75 overall prospect, and no. 2 in COL) mentioned on Fangraphs yesterday as a hypothetical return, and I would take that, but we will not get the kind of return for him that his name would appear to command.

Avi is hurt again; he's not going anywhere.

And really, who else is there to move?
__________________
Ridiculousness across all sports:

(1) "You have no valid opinion because you never played the game."
(2) "Stats are irrelevant. This guy just doesn't know how to win."
  #47  
Old 07-17-2018, 10:51 AM
Whitesox029 Whitesox029 is offline
WSI Church Elder
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Woodridge
Posts: 3,122
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mzh View Post
I read somewhere recently that he and their GM Forst are far from a lock to still be there when the new decade comes around. As much as we all complain about JR there aren't many more penny pinchers than what they got in Oakland, wouldn't be shocked if the braintrust there wanted to go looking for another opportunity before it's time to retire.

That being said, they've got the beginnings of a nice core over there. Chapman and Olson are already studs, Barreto and Manaea could be well on their way, and they've got some nice pitching in the pipeline too.
I've never understood the hype around Billy Beane and Moneyball. Since the book was published, the A's have a .512 winning percentage with just one appearance in the second round of the playoffs and no wins in that series, good for a 6-14 playoff record since 2003. Say what you want about KW, and maybe 2005 was a lucky fluke, but at least it happened.
__________________
  #48  
Old 07-17-2018, 11:49 AM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Lakeview
Posts: 22,942
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitesox029 View Post
I've never understood the hype around Billy Beane and Moneyball. Since the book was published, the A's have a .512 winning percentage with just one appearance in the second round of the playoffs and no wins in that series, good for a 6-14 playoff record since 2003. Say what you want about KW, and maybe 2005 was a lucky fluke, but at least it happened.
Other teams have used the process to be successful. Beane was and is on an extremely limited budget in a terrible market.
  #49  
Old 07-17-2018, 11:53 AM
Chez's Avatar
Chez Chez is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Clarendon Hills
Posts: 6,641
Default

I don't think the Sox will find a trade partner for Shields. I think L. Garcia, Soria and Cedeno may be the only players moved at the deadline and it wouldn't shock me if the Sox don't make any moves.
__________________
2018 Attendance Record: 5-7
All time Sox Attendance Tracker:

277-241.
  #50  
Old 07-17-2018, 11:54 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Palos Hills, IL
Posts: 9,735
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kittle42

All-Star or not, Abreu is having easily his worst season. It is probably not worth moving him for what the return would be. I saw Riley Pint from COL (no. 75 overall prospect, and no. 2 in COL) mentioned on Fangraphs yesterday as a hypothetical return, and I would take that, but we will not get the kind of return for him that his name would appear to command.
I’ll take Riley Pint. He is a better return than Abreu would fetch in his walk year, so it’s not exactly “selling low” on Abreu’s down year.

Look at what has happened to Carlos Rodon, Alec Hansen, and Dane Dunning this year. Adding another well-regarded pitching prospect to this system would be a smart move.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Horsemaster Fred
This is the major leagues so get it how you live and let’s fight tomorrow.
  #51  
Old 07-20-2018, 03:17 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is online now
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Dallas, Texas
Posts: 19,942
Blog Entries: 1
Default

The Atlanta Braves could use some bullpen help, and we have that to offer. We could use some pitching prospect depth, and they have that to offer. Maybe there's a match for us that Hahn could exploit.
__________________
The universe is the practical joke of the General at the expense of the Particular, quoth Frater Perdurabo, and laughed. The disciples nearest him wept, seeing the Universal Sorrow. Others laughed, seeing the Universal Joke. Others wept. Others laughed. Others wept because they couldn't see the Joke, and others laughed lest they should be thought not to see the Joke. But though FRATER laughed openly, he wept secretly; and really he neither laughed nor wept. Nor did he mean what he said.
  #52  
Old 07-20-2018, 04:48 PM
hoosiersoxfan hoosiersoxfan is offline
Co-Winner WSI 2018 NFL Pick'em Contest
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 3,449
Default

I feel like unless it's a top tier starter that good bullpen arms have more value this time of year than back of the rotation starters do. Teams are desperate to solidify their bullpens. No way the Indians would have given up Mejia for Hand in the winter but they know now they need more solid bullpen arms and are willing to pay the higher price in July.
  #53  
Old 07-20-2018, 05:22 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
WSI High Priest
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Palos Hills, IL
Posts: 9,735
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hoosiersoxfan
I feel like unless it's a top tier starter that good bullpen arms have more value this time of year than back of the rotation starters do.
Absolutely. The back-end starter may not even make the postseason roster, and if he does, he is not going to have the impact that the good reliever will have.

Let’s say the back-end starter actually got an LCS start. He probably faced about 20 batters. Between the LDS (where the back-end starter likely did not pitch at all) and the LCS, the high-end reliever likely faced about the same number of batters, but he impacted the outcomes of more games, and he worked through more “high-leverage” matchups.
  #54  
Old 07-20-2018, 06:46 PM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
WSI Guru
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Chubbuck, Idaho
Posts: 33,297
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitesox029 View Post
I've never understood the hype around Billy Beane and Moneyball. Since the book was published, the A's have a .512 winning percentage with just one appearance in the second round of the playoffs and no wins in that series, good for a 6-14 playoff record since 2003. Say what you want about KW, and maybe 2005 was a lucky fluke, but at least it happened.
Completely agree. That book made Kenny look like a fool. He had the last laugh though.

The only thing Beane is good at is trading people before they become good in order to get more prospects. Sometimes I think he's this generations version of Frank "Trader" Lane. A compulsive dealer, he can't help himself.
  #55  
Old 07-20-2018, 07:21 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is online now
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Dallas, Texas
Posts: 19,942
Blog Entries: 1
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lip Man 1 View Post
Completely agree. That book made Kenny look like a fool. He had the last laugh though.

The only thing Beane is good at is trading people before they become good in order to get more prospects. Sometimes I think he's this generations version of Frank "Trader" Lane. A compulsive dealer, he can't help himself.
In fairness, for their market and payroll, a .512 winning percentage over 1.5 decades is pretty solid, especially considering they have had to adjust as most other teams started to mimic their approach.
  #56  
Old 07-22-2018, 11:32 AM
Tragg Tragg is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Gonzales LA
Posts: 15,049
Blog Entries: 2
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
In fairness, for their market and payroll, a .512 winning percentage over 1.5 decades is pretty solid, especially considering they have had to adjust as most other teams started to mimic their approach.
They've also made the playoffs 8 times since 2000, with minimal resources.
I never read Moneyball, but my understanding is that one trade it made a big deal about was Chad Bradford....I never understood that because the Sox got a starting catcher who had a higher career WAR than Bradford. That wasn't a bad trade.
Now basically every other trade Williams and Hahn made with the As was bad: Durham; Foulke for Koch; Swisher for Gio et al; Samardzija; Lawrie.


Beane last made the playoffs in 2014, so they too, required a THREE year rebuild to get competitive, just like the Astros, Cubs, Braves, Phillies, Brewers (less). Yet somehow, this front office has earned an unlimited period.
  #57  
Old 07-22-2018, 12:09 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is online now
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Dallas, Texas
Posts: 19,942
Blog Entries: 1
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
They've also made the playoffs 8 times since 2000, with minimal resources...

Beane last made the playoffs in 2014, so they too, required a THREE year rebuild to get competitive, just like the Astros, Cubs, Braves, Phillies, Brewers (less). Yet somehow, this front office has earned an unlimited period.
The Athletics are an interesting comparison to the White Sox. Both the Sox and the A’s are the clear #2 teams in their respective markets, although the Sox have a much better stadium with much more favorable lease terms compared to the A’s. If we hadn’t won the 2005 World Series, it would be a slam dunk that Beane has out-performed the KW/Hahn tandem since 2000.

I don’t put it all on KW/Hahn, though. Their JR-driven 2000s draft philosophy of “we don’t pay overslot; we don’t buy potential,” and the Doug Wilder scandal, were not KW/Hahn’s fault. KW’s response to that JR-created environment was “let’s rush prospects so we can maximize their value to deal them for veterans to plug holes,” and to his credit he made it work for 2005 and 2008. He turned spare parts into David Wells, Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Jose Contreras and Jake Peavy. His acquisitions of Everett, Pierzynski, Iguchi, Dye, Podsednik, Thome, and Quentin all paid off. With all that success, of course he got arrogant, and starting with Nick Swisher, and accelerating after 2008, he made a bunch of bad trades, and I think other GMs got wise to his practice of trading away prospects who largely amounted to very little.

Still, I think your criticisms of KW/Hahn are fair, and in particular - as you have said many times - Hahn short-circuited his first rebuild effort by trying to build on an incomplete foundation.

Even so, amid all the fair criticism, it’s also fair to point out that Hahn has gotten good value in his tear-down trades, and their drafts and player development systems have shown improvement.

Finally, firing KW/Hahn now would likely set back the rebuild even more, or, worse yet, bring in a GM who tries to add veterans now in an effort to compete right away.

Considering all that, it seems to me the best - if still unsatisfactory- choice is to stay the current course and hope for the best.
  #58  
Old 07-22-2018, 12:24 PM
Tragg Tragg is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Gonzales LA
Posts: 15,049
Blog Entries: 2
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post

Still, I think your criticisms of KW/Hahn are fair, and in particular - as you have said many times - Hahn short-circuited his first rebuild effort by trying to build on an incomplete foundation.

Even so, amid all the fair criticism, it’s also fair to point out that Hahn has gotten good value in his tear-down trades, and their drafts and player development systems have shown improvement.

Finally, firing KW/Hahn now would likely set back the rebuild even more, or, worse yet, bring in a GM who tries to add veterans now in an effort to compete right away.

Considering all that, it seems to me the best - if still unsatisfactory- choice is to stay the current course and hope for the best.
I was never worried about Hahn's ability to tear down. No complaints about any of his trades. The one thing that may be lacking is a diamond in the rough - like the Arieta or several Brewers. Maybe Narvaez and Covey, 2 rule 5 guys, will fit that bill.
It's the building up into a team that worries me. To accomplish it he's going to have to show some creativity. It's not going to happen solely through waiting for all of the prospects to mature; or to start trading for veterans in their prime. He's going to have to make a couple of real baseball trades for young players: a 3B, maybe a C, and some athletic OFs who can hit.
And while doing that, stockpile the pitching.
There are problems with absolute timelines, but the second he reverts back to his instincts and makes some boneheaded trade for a veteran, he's out.

Last edited by Tragg; 07-22-2018 at 12:30 PM.
  #59  
Old 07-22-2018, 12:47 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is online now
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Dallas, Texas
Posts: 19,942
Blog Entries: 1
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
He's going to have to make a couple of real baseball trades for young players: a 3B, maybe a C, and some athletic OFs who can hit.
And while doing that, stockpile the pitching.
I agree that “we can’t get enough pitching,” and 3B and even C might be problematic if their top prospects at those positions don’t work out. But I’m puzzled by your inclusion of “athletic OFs who can hit” as a critical need. It seems to me that, of any position, OF is our greatest area of organizational strength. No, they won’t all pan out, but after Eloy we have at least six guys who have a shot to fill the other two slots: Robert, Rutherford, Basabe, Adolfo, Gonzalez, and Walker. We only need two of the six to succeed, which I think is realistic.
  #60  
Old 07-22-2018, 07:00 PM
Tragg Tragg is offline
WSI Prelate
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Gonzales LA
Posts: 15,049
Blog Entries: 2
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
I agree that “we can’t get enough pitching,” and 3B and even C might be problematic if their top prospects at those positions don’t work out. But I’m puzzled by your inclusion of “athletic OFs who can hit” as a critical need. It seems to me that, of any position, OF is our greatest area of organizational strength. No, they won’t all pan out, but after Eloy we have at least six guys who have a shot to fill the other two slots: Robert, Rutherford, Basabe, Adolfo, Gonzalez, and Walker. We only need two of the six to succeed, which I think is realistic.
None of those guys are close to the majors within my 1-2 year timeline and a couple of them aren't good defenders.
Closed Thread


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



Forum Jump




All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:06 PM.




Design by: Michelle

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Site-specific editorial/photos Copyright ©2001 - 2008 White Sox Interactive. All rights reserved.