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  #241  
Old 10-19-2018, 04:37 PM
mzh mzh is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Avi Garcia is a better baseball player than Dan Palka. He is not a non-tender candidate.
I don’t disagree with you, but there’s also the reality that Palka gives you probably 80-90% of Garcia’s production at like 5% of the price. Not saying I’m for non-tendering Avi but I’m sure the above will be in the front office’s consideration.
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  #242  
Old 10-19-2018, 04:44 PM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
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Originally Posted by mzh View Post
I don’t disagree with you, but there’s also the reality that Palka gives you probably 80-90% of Garcia’s production at like 5% of the price. Not saying I’m for non-tendering Avi but I’m sure the above will be in the front office’s consideration.
At least Palka is able to be in the lineup fairly regularly at different positions. A. Garcia spends most of his time on the DL.
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  #243  
Old 10-19-2018, 04:48 PM
mzh mzh is offline
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Originally Posted by Lip Man 1 View Post
At least Palka is able to be in the lineup fairly regularly at different positions. A. Garcia spends most of his time on the DL.
True, and regardless, it seems pretty doubtful that either of them are anything but placeholders if we’re being realistic.
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  #244  
Old 10-19-2018, 06:05 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mzh
I don’t disagree with you, but there’s also the reality that Palka gives you probably 80-90% of Garcia’s production at like 5% of the price. Not saying I’m for non-tendering Avi but I’m sure the above will be in the front office’s consideration.
The off-chance of Avi replicating his 2017 production and bringing back a return at the trade deadline makes him a better candidate for the everyday RF job than Palka, even when the money is considered.

Palka should be in a platoon of sorts with Davidson at DH (with Sanchez getting benched more frequently against LHP as well). Who knows, maybe someone out there would be interested in trading for Sanchez, which would give us a chance to see where Davidson’s WAR could settle if he played 3B every day and allow Palka to DH every day.
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  #245  
Old 10-19-2018, 06:56 PM
Lip Man 1 Lip Man 1 is offline
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Originally Posted by mzh View Post
True, and regardless, it seems pretty doubtful that either of them are anything but placeholders if we’re being realistic.
I'd agree with this although if Palka can keep hitting 20-25 home runs in part time duty he could be a viable bench option / late inning power threat / off the bench if the team gets good. Plus, and don't discount this, he's got charisma and fan appeal. Something the Sox badly need.
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  #246  
Old 10-19-2018, 07:46 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Avi Garcia is a better baseball player than Dan Palka. He is not a non-tender candidate.
Avi Garcia is ****. 0.3 WAR last year and paid 6.7 million dollars. Palka at least can hit, plus he's younger, cheaper, and lefthanded.
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  #247  
Old 10-19-2018, 10:32 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Avi Garcia is a better baseball player than Dan Palka. He is not a non-tender candidate.
"Sticking in the AL Central, the ChiSox may have to sell low on Avisail Garcia, whose injury woes and dreadful 2018 season make him a non-tender candidate at this point." -- mlbtraderumors.com
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  #248  
Old 10-20-2018, 12:43 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Avi Garcia is going to be tendered a contract. As horrible as Avi’s season was, only 13 points of OBP separated him from Palka. Regarding all facets of the game, both players finished at the same -11 Runs Above Average.
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  #249  
Old 10-20-2018, 01:11 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Mea culpa.

I apologize for including in my predictions for who would open and close 2019 in what outfields in our system, a prediction of who would start and finish in the major league outfield.

This triggered a subsequent discussion over the major league outfield.

This was not my intent.

To the mods, and to everyone who peruses and posts in “Minor Observations” specifically to avoid the endless circular firing squad over the major league club, please accept my apology.


Can we go back to discussing the MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM now?


Here’s a question to discuss:

After Eloy and Robert, how would each of us rank the next five OFs in the system: Basabe, Adolfo, Rutherford, Gonzalez, and Walker?
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  #250  
Old 10-20-2018, 01:43 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Even though Basabe and Adolfo have louder tools and therefore higher ceilings, and while Gonzalez and even Walker may have higher floors (both could probably be acceptable fourth OFs right now and have lower risk of busting) ultimately I still rank Rutherford higher.

As far as their ceilings, I’d rank them as follows:

1. Basabe (possible five-tool 20/20 CF with RF arm)
2. Adolfo
3. Rutherford
4. Gonzalez
5. Walker

As far as their floors, I’d rank them as follows:

1. Gonzalez (at least a long-term fourth OF who can play all three slots)
2. Walker (at least a long-term fourth OF who can play CF and LF)
3. Rutherford (fourth OF or AAAA player)
4. Basabe (fifth OF or AAAA player)
5. Adolfo (AAAA player)

As far as bust potential, I’d rank them as follows (lowest to highest bust odds):

1. Gonzalez (~80% to reach the majors and stick for a while)
2. Walker
3. Rutherford
4. Adolfo
5. Basabe

Others of course are free to disagree. Nevertheless, the fact that Rutherford has the superior hit tool, plus the projection to continue developing game power, I’d rank him ever so slightly ahead of Basabe and Adolfo, because he’s less likely to bust. In fact, I think he’s less likely to bust than Robert. Barring a trade, I think Rutherford will be our RF in 2021, and be a reliable RBI producing 6-7 hitter.
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  #251  
Old 10-21-2018, 08:56 AM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Based on the list above, the Sox have 16 pitching prospects in the top 30, of which 12 are in the bottom 15.
But if you look at this list a year ago, 2, 6 and 10 were all trending upwards (and 2 was elite) and we lacked depth then. 3 was solid (now elite) but 2, 6 and 10 are trending downward due to injury, etc.
2. Kopech (DL, out until 2020 and already promoted to majors)
3. Cease - one of the top pitching prospects in baseball
6. Dunning - starter; hurt; projected as back of the rotation
10. Hansen - starter followed a great year with a terrible year
16. Hamilton (called up in Sept.) - good looking relief prospect
17. Burdi - all hype relief prospect who has done nothing on a professional level; a draft pick that epitomizes this philosophy of this front office
18. Pilkington - 3rd round 2018 pick and there was nothing special about him as a 3rd round pick; every team still has high hopes for their 3rd round pick. Him as the org's #7 pitching prospect does not scream depth.
19. Medeiros - terrible year for a declining prospect; another lazy trade.
20. Stephens - EDIT - got my Jordans wrong; he had a solid year in AA, struggled in AAA; too many BBs in general.
And for good reason - mediocre in birmingham and terrible in charlotte..
21. Lambert - starter - had a good year in 2019
23. Tyler Johnson - relief prospect - excellent stats
24. Ruiz (called up in Sept.) - relief prospect DFAs by Padres; good year but old for AA.
25. Flores - decent unspectacular year
26. Adams - did will in a short window, but overall year was blah

29. Stiever - rookie 5th round pick; too early to judge
30. Henzman - looks fine

Where is the depth?

Last edited by Tragg; 10-21-2018 at 11:43 AM.
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  #252  
Old 10-21-2018, 09:27 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tragg
Based on the list above, the Sox have 16 pitching prospects in the top 30, of which 12 are in the bottom 15. 19 and 20 both had poor years; 20 was Rule 5 eligible pitcher from last year.
But if you look at this list a year ago, 2, 6 and 10 were all trending upwards (and 2 was elite) and we lacked depth then. 3 was solid (now elite) but 2, 6 and 10 are trending downward due to injury, etc.
2. Kopech (DL, out until 2020 and already promoted to majors)
3. Cease - one of the top pitching prospects in baseball
6. Dunning - starter; hurt; projected as back of the rotation
10. Hansen - starter followed a great year with a terrible year
16. Hamilton (called up in Sept.) - good looking relief prospect
17. Burdi - all hype relief prospect who has done nothing on a professional level; a draft pick that epitomizes this philosophy of this front office
18. Pilkington - 3rd round 2018 pick and there was nothing special about him as a 3rd round pick; every team still has high hopes for their 3rd round pick. Him as the org's #7 pitching prospect does not scream depth.
19. Medeiros - terrible year for a declining prospect; another lazy trade.
20. Stephens - isn't this the guy they left unprotected in Rule 5 a year ago?
And for good reason - mediocre in birmingham and terrible in charlotte..
21. Lambert - starter - had a good year in 2019
23. Tyler Johnson - relief prospect - excellent stats
24. Ruiz (called up in Sept.) - relief prospect DFAs by Padres; good year but old for AA.
25. Flores - decent unspectacular year
26. Adams - did will in a short window, but overall year was blah

29. Stiever - rookie 5th round pick; too early to judge
30. Henzman - looks fine

Where is the depth?
Go compare that list to every other team’s list. Once you do that, you will find your answer.
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  #253  
Old 10-21-2018, 09:53 AM
blurry blurry is offline
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Development isn't linear. Never has been, never will be. Sure I'm concerned for a few of the players (Hansen above everyone else) but overall we're still sitting pretty and most minor league experts agree. Even Fangraphs looks favorably on this farm.
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  #254  
Old 10-21-2018, 10:00 AM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Tragg, I agree with you that “we can never have too much pitching.”

And yes, the Braves, for instance, have more pitchers in the top of their rankings.

I do think that lots of clubs should envy the pitching in our system, though.

We need to keep in mind that several of our previously highly-ranked pitchers have lost their prospect status due to their major league appearances. Lopez and Giolito aren’t “prospects” anymore; they are young major league pitchers who are still learning and growing.

Then there are guys like Fulmer and Covey. They have major league “stuff” but maybe they aren’t suited to become traditional starters; the revolution in bullpen use over the past few years could result in both of them being high-leverage long relievers who can go max effort one time through the order every third day.

The 2018 results left something to be desired, but I’m also realistic enough to understand that there is still time for each of them to improve, even if I also know that not all of them will.

I think we’ll be fine in our 2020-2021 rotation if we can count on:

1. Rodon
2. Kopech
3. One among Lopez or Giolito
4. One among Cease or Dunning
5. One among the rest of our Top 30 to emerge

Because I also think that we’ll be able to assemble an effective bullpen from among who we have in the system, including Hamilton, Burr, Fry, Burdi (maybe not a closer, but still decent), Covey or Fulmer, etc., plus a couple of free agent acquisitions.

I don’t think that’s unrealistic at all.

Finally, as you have pointed out, recently they have been using their top picks on position players. I guess it would be nice to have Forrest Whitley instead of Zack Collins, but who could have predicted that a high school draftee like Whitley would make it to AA in his first full season? Alex Faedo over Jake Burger in 2017? If we had known Burger would rupture his Achilles twice, sure. But we won’t know who “won” the 2016 and 2017 drafts for a few more years.

Again, while I’d rather have more pitching in our system, I don’t think pitching is the weakness you make it out to be. And our depth of OF prospects gives us capital to trade when the time comes.
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  #255  
Old 10-21-2018, 10:39 AM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
20. Stephens - isn't this the guy they left unprotected in Rule 5 a year ago?
And for good reason - mediocre in birmingham and terrible in charlotte..
...
Where is the depth?
Stephens was not left unprotected. You're thinking of Guerrero.

And the depth continues well past the top 30. There are pitchers like McClure, Battenfield, Parke, who barely missed out because the system is presently deep. By my count there are as many as 20 more worth keeping an eye on. If TINSTAAPP, some of these guys will take leaps forward in 2019.
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