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  #316  
Old 12-08-2019, 10:27 AM
longtimefan longtimefan is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
There isnít a better option. No one is arguing that. My point is that filling the RF position with any free agent is less helpful than spending that money on pitching, pitching, and more pitching.

At this point, may as well just punt on the RF situation for now. If this team is still gunning for a playoff spot at the trade deadline, and RF is the only gaping hole in the lineup, then make a trade at that time. However, without 2 new faces in the rotation and another solid late-inning option, this team will never even get to the point where they are contemplating midseason acquisitions for a pennant chase.
You're right that pitching needs to be the focus. If we want a 2 WAR player in RF, get Avi Garcia back for $6M or whatever. He can play RF, has the arm, and hit .282. But if we want an impact player in RF, that person needs to be able to catch the ball. We can't have defensive liabilities in both LF and RF. That is a formula for a disaster.
  #317  
Old 12-08-2019, 11:43 AM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Originally Posted by Chez View Post
Not to get side-tracked (I feel like we've been down this path multiple times already), but this is ridiculous. If you want to play "guilt by association," how do you feel about Paul Konerko and Magglio Ordonez in 2001? Jose Canseco was their teammate. Derek Jeter in 2012 (A-Rod)?

As for Ozuna, besides Nick Castellanos, who is a better free-agent option to play RF for the 2020 Sox?
Konerko and Ordonez and Jeter did not have huge career years during/right after their associations with Canseco and A-Rod. And those players were teammates. As a hitting coach, Bonds would have been directly responsible for getting the most out of Ozuna.

Also consider that Giancarlo Stanton hit 59 home runs in 2017 and has never hit 40 in any other year. You’re just going to deny the possibility that they had help?

I’ve already posted my alternative to Ozuna: Shogo Akiyama. Start Robert out in RF where he will feel less pressure, balance the lineup better, have 2/3 of an amazing defensive outfield.
  #318  
Old 12-08-2019, 12:14 PM
BRDSR BRDSR is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
There isn’t a better option. No one is arguing that. My point is that filling the RF position with any free agent is less helpful than spending that money on pitching, pitching, and more pitching.

At this point, may as well just punt on the RF situation for now. If this team is still gunning for a playoff spot at the trade deadline, and RF is the only gaping hole in the lineup, then make a trade at that time. However, without 2 new faces in the rotation and another solid late-inning option, this team will never even get to the point where they are contemplating midseason acquisitions for a pennant chase.
This is where I’m at as well. Regardless of who suits up in RF on a regular basis, this lineup should score runs in spades. If they have $35M to work with, I would much rather they spend it on Strasburg/Cole, a Nova-type, and a quality reliever. Feels like a pipe dream, but that’s what What’s the Score is for, right?

If they shored up the pitching staff, I would not be upset to see Robert in RF when Engel starts and in CF when Leury starts. That still gives the Sox solid production at 8/9 spots in the lineup, which is a heckuva lot more than the roughly 3/9ths we’ve had for what feels like the last decade

Last edited by BRDSR; 12-08-2019 at 12:32 PM.
  #319  
Old 12-08-2019, 12:33 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
Konerko and Ordonez and Jeter did not have huge career years during/right after their associations with Canseco and A-Rod. And those players were teammates. As a hitting coach, Bonds would have been directly responsible for getting the most out of Ozuna.

Also consider that Giancarlo Stanton hit 59 home runs in 2017 and has never hit 40 in any other year. Youíre just going to deny the possibility that they had help?

Iíve already posted my alternative to Ozuna: Shogo Akiyama. Start Robert out in RF where he will feel less pressure, balance the lineup better, have 2/3 of an amazing defensive outfield.
Stanton may have hit over 50 this year had he stayed healthy. 40 would have been a slam dunk.
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  #320  
Old 12-08-2019, 01:34 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Apparently the Cubs are telling agents that they need to clear money before they can discuss anyone, even low-level free agents.

Instead of giving Ozuna 4 years at $15+ AAV and losing a draft pick to do it, why not just take the $23.5/$23.5/$24.5/$24.5 and $5/$5/$5/$5 deferred owed to Jason Heyward, have the Cubs pay down $0/$0/$12.25/$12.25 and $2.5/$2.5/$2.5/$2.5, and get either Ian Happ or Nico Hoerner back?

Letís say Ozuna gets what Moose just got. That would be $12/$14/$16/$18 and a $20 club option with a $4 buyout.

The difference between Heyward and Ozuna would be $-11.5/$-9.5/$3.75/$5.75/$1.5/$-2.5/$-2.5/$-2.5 in payroll commitments. Now letís peg Ozuna at somewhere around 9-9.5 fWAR and Heyward at 6.5-7 fWAR for those 4 years. That difference in value would be another $15-25 in favor of Ozuna. Weíre talking about a total loss of about $30-35 in dollars and production in 2020 and 2021, anywhere from a $2-3 loss to a $1-2 gain in value for 2022 and 2023, and some negligible deferral losses in 2024-2027.

Basically, the question is whether or not Happ or Hoerner can provide $30-35 of surplus value, or about 3.5-4.5 surplus fWAR, in a White Sox uniform. With Hoerner, the answer obviously is yes, since he has only 26 days of service in his career. He still has 3 years at the league minimum, and he probably will have made up that difference before he even gets to arbitration. Happ only has 1 year remaining at the league minimum, but he will make a huge dent in that deficit with his production next year. I think he likely surpasses that total by the end of his Arb 1 year, and if not, definitely by the end of his Arb 2 year.

In other words, out of all the ways to use payroll flexibility, the 2011 and 2015 method of signing B-level vets in free agency is undoubtedly the worst way. I really hope we donít go back to it.
  #321  
Old 12-08-2019, 01:57 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Mohoney - That deal doesn't help as much as you would assume, is still way too much money to take on for someone who on the open market would be debatable to get a major league contract, and really...only helps the Cubs get out of a mess without dealing from their most important pieces.


In a best case scenario it barely helps us. In most scenarios, it puts the Cubs in a position to become a contender again.


Hard pass. The hardest possible pass. Find another way. And **** the Cubs. Let them rot in payroll hell.
  #322  
Old 12-08-2019, 01:57 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
In other words, out of all the ways to use payroll flexibility, the 2011 and 2015 method of signing B-level vets in free agency is undoubtedly the worst way. I really hope we don’t go back to it.
I tend to agree with this take.

I’d rather the Sox use their payroll flexibility to acquire starting pitching.

But if they can’t upgrade their rotation through free agency, then I’d prefer trying to be creative along the lines you suggest to pick up Heyward and his salary, and then - with Hoerner or Happ also in the system - build a prospect-heavy package to trade for starting pitching from a team looking to re-stock their own system.

Hoerner/Happ + Collins + Walker/Basabe/Rutherford/Adolfo + Stiever/Dunning ought to be worth something, no?
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  #323  
Old 12-08-2019, 02:04 PM
MrX MrX is online now
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Cole reportedly has a 7 year offer for $35 million a season on the table from the Yankees.
  #324  
Old 12-08-2019, 02:07 PM
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Cole reportedly has a 7 year offer for $35 million a season on the table from the Yankees.

So we know where serious offers start now.
  #325  
Old 12-08-2019, 02:09 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Mohoney - That deal doesn't help as much as you would assume, is still way too much money to take on for someone who on the open market would be debatable to get a major league contract, and really...only helps the Cubs get out of a mess without dealing from their most important pieces.


In a best case scenario it barely helps us. In most scenarios, it puts the Cubs in a position to become a contender again.


Hard pass. The hardest possible pass. Find another way. And **** the Cubs. Let them rot in payroll hell.
You know who else doesnít help much? Marcell Ozuna at full price. Take away those dreadful plate appearances Heyward had in the leadoff spot, and put him in RF instead of CF, and his WAR creeps up. Meanwhile, put Ozuna in RF instead of LF, and his WAR probably creeps down a little bit.

I donít even really want Jason Heyward. I just donít want any part of Marcell Ozunaís barely above averageness.

Heís not the droid weíre looking for. We can go about our business. Move along.
  #326  
Old 12-08-2019, 02:10 PM
BRDSR BRDSR is offline
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Originally Posted by MrX View Post
Cole reportedly has a 7 year offer for $35 million a season on the table from the Yankees.
As much as I want him...that sounds like about $50M more than heís worth. Not sure the Sox should (let alone can) commit to anything like that.
  #327  
Old 12-08-2019, 02:19 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
So we know where serious offers start now.
Yankees are really, really good. Signing Cole probably makes them WS favorites in 2020. This would not be a spending war we can win.

Strasburgís price will go up too, but Sox need to go all in.
  #328  
Old 12-08-2019, 02:19 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Marcel Ozuna is - at worst - an above average player. The numbers say that. The scouting statistics say he's better.


Jayson Hayward doesn't belong on a major league roster. And on top of it - YOU'RE HELPING THE CUBS GET BACK TO THE WORLD SERIES.


Worst. Idea. Ever.

Last edited by blandman; 12-08-2019 at 02:35 PM.
  #329  
Old 12-08-2019, 02:21 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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We're going to see a market reset this year. 29 year old ace and plenty of big spenders needing him.


When it's all said and done, I fully expect the new record for a pitcher to be north of $300 million.
  #330  
Old 12-08-2019, 02:42 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
Marcel Ozuna is - at worst - an above average player. The numbers say that. The scouting statistics say he's better.
Ever so slightly above average, yes. That can change in year 4 of a 4-year deal, though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by blandman
Jayson Hayward doesn't belong on a major league roster.
This is just goofy. Heyward slashed .286/.373/.471 last year when he didnít lead off. He was also +8 Outs Above Average in the outfield.

Overpriced? Yes. Not a viable major league regular? Nonsense.
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