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  #1  
Old 08-17-2018, 01:14 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is online now
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Default Assessing the 40-man roster situation

SoxMachine's Jim Margulus published an excellent analysis today on the Sox 40-man roster situation, in preparation for the upcoming September callups and the eventual Rule V draft.


In short, Margalus recommends/projects:


Quote:
The Sox could have eight or so spots to play with after adding Kopech, Cease and Zavala, so they could theoretically also accommodate Stephens, Medeiros, Frare, Burr and Ruiz. There might be some redundancy, as both Medeiros and Frare would give the 40-man six left-handed relievers, but somebody like Luis Avilan can be traded for the second straight offseason.
Who would you add, beyond the obvious no-brainers like Kopech, Cease, and Zavala? Who would you remove from the current 40-man roster? Who would you leave unprotected? (Keep in mind that any team claiming a player in the Rule 5 draft must keep that player on their 25-man roster for the entire next season, or risk losing him back to the team from which he was drafted.)
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Old 08-17-2018, 03:15 PM
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James Fegan goes through the exact same exercise today in The Athletic.
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Old 08-17-2018, 10:40 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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At this point, are we absolutely certain that James Shields won’t be back? 200 “meh” innings actually may be worth more than the $14 million Shields would cost.
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Old 08-17-2018, 11:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
At this point, are we absolutely certain that James Shields won’t be back? 200 “meh” innings actually may be worth more than the $14 million Shields would cost.
I wouldn't be surprised if they declined his option and brought him back on a much smaller deal. I doubt he'll get many sniffs elsewhere around the league, and if he's anything close to serviceable a $2 million salary will be much easier to trade midseason than $14 million.

Rodon, Lopez, Giolito, and Kopech are probably locks to spend most or all of the season in the rotation, but there's not much else in the system other than Covey and maybe Adams that have any chance of making the rotation out of camp, so unless they have any particular free agents in mind it wouldn't shock me at all to see him back in some capacity.

Edit: I guess I could see them giving a Jordan of the Guerrero or Stephens variety a shot next April, but it strikes me as more likely that they fill out the AAA rotation and serve as injury depth with a little upside.
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Old 08-17-2018, 11:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mzh View Post
I wouldn't be surprised if they declined his option and brought him back on a much smaller deal. I doubt he'll get many sniffs elsewhere around the league, and if he's anything close to serviceable a $2 million salary will be much easier to trade midseason than $14 million.

Rodon, Lopez, Giolito, and Kopech are probably locks to spend most or all of the season in the rotation, but there's not much else in the system other than Covey and maybe Adams that have any chance of making the rotation out of camp, so unless they have any particular free agents in mind it wouldn't shock me at all to see him back in some capacity.

Edit: I guess I could see them giving a Jordan of the Guerrero or Stephens variety a shot next April, but it strikes me as more likely that they fill out the AAA rotation and serve as injury depth with a little upside.
Tyler Danish or Carson Fulmer (who WILL be on the team to open next season in some capacity) could make a few starts until Kopech comes up and let Covey be the #5 for the majority of the season or until he completely donks out and someone else is ready or Fulmer develops enough to be a #5.
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Old 08-17-2018, 11:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
Tyler Danish or Carson Fulmer (who WILL be on the team to open next season in some capacity) could make a few starts until Kopech comes up and let Covey be the #5 for the majority of the season or until he completely donks out and someone else is ready or Fulmer develops enough to be a #5.
Personally I was a big fan of Fulmer's, but I thought the boat had more or less sailed on them being starters? Danish has been coming out of the pen all season, right? I'd love if it either of them lived up to their draft slot and became decent enough starters, though.

I'm a little baffled by Covey. He really seemed to have figured something out and was throwing that 2 seamer at 95-96 pretty consistently, then it just disappeared. If they think he can get that back I don't have a problem running him out there at all. You can always move him to the pen and hope the stuff plays up.

Like I said though, if they do bring back Shields, it'll almost certainly be on a new contract worth little enough that if someone else is ready to start and they can't trade him he can probably be cut with little consequence. Wouldn't be the worst idea in the world.
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Old 08-18-2018, 09:24 AM
soxfanreggie soxfanreggie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mzh View Post
I wouldn't be surprised if they declined his option and brought him back on a much smaller deal. I doubt he'll get many sniffs elsewhere around the league, and if he's anything close to serviceable a $2 million salary will be much easier to trade midseason than $14 million.

Rodon, Lopez, Giolito, and Kopech are probably locks to spend most or all of the season in the rotation, but there's not much else in the system other than Covey and maybe Adams that have any chance of making the rotation out of camp, so unless they have any particular free agents in mind it wouldn't shock me at all to see him back in some capacity.

Edit: I guess I could see them giving a Jordan of the Guerrero or Stephens variety a shot next April, but it strikes me as more likely that they fill out the AAA rotation and serve as injury depth with a little upside.
I don't think you will net him with a $2 million contract, but we do have the opportunity to sign a FA or two at a decent rate, get them into the org., and still get someone like Shields for $5-$7 mil.

If he can get close to 200 or more innings and an ERA below 4.50 (currently at 4.39), he'll get a decent 1-year deal. Perhaps he gets
a vesting player option for a second year. He'll be 37, really closer to 38 at this point next year, so it also wouldn't surprise me if he retires this year or next. Thanks to his deal with the Padres, he'll have made over $110 million for his career.
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Old 08-24-2018, 08:59 AM
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Avilan, of course, is now off the 40-man. Burr is now on the 40-man roster.

Paulino(acquired for Avilan) is Rule 5 eligible this winter, but I think there is little risk of losing him if the Sox keep him off the 40-man.
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Old 10-27-2018, 11:06 AM
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The 40-man roster now sits at 36 after the departure of Kevan Smith and outrighting Farquhar, LaMarre, and Schahill.

Since the Margulus article was written (see first post of this thread), Frare, Burr, and Ruiz have been added to the 40-man. So was Kopech, but of course his 40-man spot is now freed up because he's on the 60-day DL.
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Old 10-27-2018, 11:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
Tyler Danish or Carson Fulmer (who WILL be on the team to open next season in some capacity) could make a few starts until Kopech comes up and let Covey be the #5 for the majority of the season or until he completely donks out and someone else is ready or Fulmer develops enough to be a #5.
Or the Sox can deal Fulmer for someone else's "mistake" and hope a change of scenery does both players good...or...........the Sox can actually go out and sign two decent starting pitchers and say "farewell and goodbye" to both Fulmer and Covey. Two guys who to be kind, have shown very, very little in their efforts to make the big leagues.

For the sake of the Sox and "progress" in the rebuild in 2019 they damn well need to do something with the rotation and the bullpen.
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Old 10-27-2018, 11:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lip Man 1 View Post
Or the Sox can deal Fulmer for someone else's "mistake" and hope a change of scenery does both players good...or...........the Sox can actually go out and sign two decent starting pitchers and say "farewell and goodbye" to both Fulmer and Covey. Two guys who to be kind, have shown very, very little in their efforts to make the big leagues.

For the sake of the Sox and "progress" in the rebuild in 2019 they damn well need to do something with the rotation and the bullpen.
Since 2019 is a developmental year anyway, I’d rather hang on to Covey and Fulmer and put them in the bullpen as long relievers. They have the stuff to get through an order once, at max effort. We tell them, “You’re pitching every third day, 2-3 innings (depending on how long the starter pitches), so just let it fly and don’t walk anyone.” A long reliever who can shut down the opposition for 2-3 innings is a valuable piece; we might as well see if they are capable of it.
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Old 10-27-2018, 12:10 PM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is online now
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I hate losing; I hate the embarrassment of 90+ loss seasons.

But whether winning baseball returns in 2019, 2020, or 2021, fans will return when winning baseball returns.

I don’t want the Sox making any moves that mortgage the future just to get slightly more competitive in 2019.
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Old 10-27-2018, 12:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frater Perdurabo View Post
Since 2019 is a developmental year anyway, I’d rather hang on to Covey and Fulmer and put them in the bullpen as long relievers. They have the stuff to get through an order once, at max effort. We tell them, “You’re pitching every third day, 2-3 innings (depending on how long the starter pitches), so just let it fly and don’t walk anyone.” A long reliever who can shut down the opposition for 2-3 innings is a valuable piece; we might as well see if they are capable of it.
Exactly With Kopech pushed back a year due to surgery, next year will be another non-contending year and honestly it was a longshot to be in playoff contention even with Kopech. The Sox should continue to see what they have in the players they have. Heck give Fulmer a shot at late inning high pressure relief. Can always trade him for someone else's struggling prospect down the road. Not like the 25 man roster is overflowing with pitchers who are sure to be part of the team once the fun gets rolling again.
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Old 10-27-2018, 02:55 PM
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Yeah, this supposed 40-man “crunch” is really much ado about nothing. Bad players can always go away to make room for better ones.
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Old 10-27-2018, 02:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lip Man 1
Or the Sox can deal Fulmer for someone else's "mistake" and hope a change of scenery does both players good...or...........the Sox can actually go out and sign two decent starting pitchers and say "farewell and goodbye" to both Fulmer and Covey. Two guys who to be kind, have shown very, very little in their efforts to make the big leagues.

For the sake of the Sox and "progress" in the rebuild in 2019 they damn well need to do something with the rotation and the bullpen.
Except this winter’s starting pitching market sucks. The relief pitching market sucks, too. The pitching goals for 2019 should be to keep Dylan Cease on the path to stardom, to get guys like Dane Dunning and Alec Hansen back on track after last year’s injuries, and to hope that Lucas Giolito takes a big step forward and becomes a legitimate big-league starter.

Last edited by Mohoney; 10-27-2018 at 03:05 PM.
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