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  #196  
Old 10-12-2019, 12:55 PM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
It’s Markov chain analysis. Run prevention is not being considered, only run production. Here is an article that helps explain it.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mark-tru...f-obp-and-slg/
Interesting article. The basic premise is that low slugging, high OBP players are more valuable to a team filled with other high OBP guys, because you can’t string together a bunch of hits all by yourself. Makes sense.
  #197  
Old 10-12-2019, 01:14 PM
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I miss the old days when the only stat that matters was "which team scored more runs today?"

Here is why I ignore the player stats. I read somewhere, I'll post the link if I can find it, but it turns out Baseball players at all levels are Human Beings. I know this is shock.

Given that the players are Human Beings, their bodies change every day and, over time, wear down. Given this, past performance is no indicator of future return. If we went on stats like some people here constantly advocate, Rick Hahn would sit down with Sandy Koufax's agent to work out a deal.
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
Past performance is no indicator of future return?

That's just a ridiculous statement.

It's not a guarantee, but it's absolutely the best indicator there is.
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
I gotta say I don't understand that either. How else should we evaluate a player's current worth and where they should bat in the lineup other than based on what they have done in the past and their age?
Performance is a dynamic, not a static, quality in sports. Past performance only shows us what the player is capable of doing. It does not mean he will repeat it or improve on it. We have no way of knowing which direction it will go in. Performance change is not 100% within the control of the player. He is scouted and opponents make adjustments.

For specific examples, look at any player in any sport.
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  #198  
Old 10-12-2019, 01:36 PM
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Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
Interesting article. The basic premise is that low slugging, high OBP players are more valuable to a team filled with other high OBP guys, because you can’t string together a bunch of hits all by yourself. Makes sense.
Plus, the frequency of home runs has dramatically increased since this article was written, so the effect is even more pronounced.
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  #199  
Old 10-12-2019, 01:36 PM
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Originally Posted by DumpJerry View Post
Performance is a dynamic, not a static, quality in sports. Past performance only shows us what the player is capable of doing. It does not mean he will repeat it or improve on it. We have no way of knowing which direction it will go in. Performance change is not 100% within the control of the player. He is scouted and opponents make adjustments.

For specific examples, look at any player in any sport.
Sure there are many examples of players deteriorating after signing a new contract and there are also many where the player actually lives up to their contract. There are always mitigating circumstances, injury, skill deterioration, player not caring anymore once they get their big payday (See McNown, Cade or Leaf, Ryan), etc. But it's still the absolutely best way to figure out a players current worth.

Do you have a different suggestion on how to improve on the current system? I'm sure MLB execs would buy your book...
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  #200  
Old 10-12-2019, 05:24 PM
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Sure there are many examples of players deteriorating after signing a new contract and there are also many where the player actually lives up to their contract. There are always mitigating circumstances, injury, skill deterioration, player not caring anymore once they get their big payday (See McNown, Cade or Leaf, Ryan), etc. But it's still the absolutely best way to figure out a players current worth.

Do you have a different suggestion on how to improve on the current system? I'm sure MLB execs would buy your book...
I've never said the system needs improvement.

Stats can be blinders. Take a step back, watch the player and get a gut feeling. That is how the Mets discovered Nolan Ryan. No stats were involved. Just use the stats as a guideline, not the end-all be-all some people are doing.
  #201  
Old 10-12-2019, 05:47 PM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Originally Posted by DumpJerry View Post
Given that the players are Human Beings, their bodies change every day and, over time, wear down. Given this, past performance is no indicator of future return. If we went on stats like some people here constantly advocate, Rick Hahn would sit down with Sandy Koufax's agent to work out a deal.
I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that you didn't mean the bolded part the way it reads. Even the biggest skeptic of statistics understands that players that perform well one year are more likely to perform well the next year than a poor-performing player. Otherwise what's the point of any of this? Throw all the player names in a hat and pick them out, because "they're all human beings".

Maybe you meant that strong performance one year doesn't guarantee strong performance the next year, or that "statistics can't quantify everything," to which you would have very few people disagree with you. But that's not what you said, which is why you are getting some very confused replies.
  #202  
Old 10-12-2019, 06:02 PM
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I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that you didn't mean the bolded part the way it reads. Even the biggest skeptic of statistics understands that players that perform well one year are more likely to perform well the next year than a poor-performing player. Otherwise what's the point of any of this? Throw all the player names in a hat and pick them out, because "they're all human beings".

Maybe you meant that strong performance one year doesn't guarantee strong performance the next year, or that "statistics can't quantify everything," to which you would have very few people disagree with you. But that's not what you said, which is why you are getting some very confused replies.
2018 Lucas Giolito meet 2019 Lucas Giolito.
2018 Yoan Moncada strike out performance meet 2019 Yoan Moncada.

Just two examples which everyone gets.
  #203  
Old 10-12-2019, 06:04 PM
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I've never said the system needs improvement.

Stats can be blinders. Take a step back, watch the player and get a gut feeling. That is how the Mets discovered Nolan Ryan. No stats were involved. Just use the stats as a guideline, not the end-all be-all some people are doing.
Bottom line is people are already judging a player that they have likely never even watched with a wood bat in his hand and maybe a handful of games in college. That is where stats suck the hardest for me.

Using concrete numbers as gospel to evaluate a kid is just myopic and historically ignorant.
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  #204  
Old 10-12-2019, 06:08 PM
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Madrigal doesn’t have an elite batting eye. He has elite contact skills.
I’ve watched him live somewhere around 20 times and I disagree. High walks are not the best indicator of a batter’s eye. Nick doesn’t swing at trash and his preference is clearly to identify the good pitches to swing at in order to utilize his elite bat control. He’s not a wallflower, he wants to hit the ball.
  #205  
Old 10-12-2019, 06:59 PM
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2018 Lucas Giolito meet 2019 Lucas Giolito.
2018 Yoan Moncada strike out performance meet 2019 Yoan Moncada.

Just two examples which everyone gets.
Well yes, but you also just picked two players who were moving from their first full season to their second full season in MLB. There is no "body of work" to judge them on. Guy like Cole or Machado or Trout are different stories as are players like Yolmer and Abreu. There are outliers like Yonder Alonso (who went on to be just fine in Colorado after leaving), but no person who takes stats seriously would expect to predict the next 15 years of Giolito's or Moncada's career based on 2018 stats.

That's bad use of stats to begin with and it doesn't strengthen your argument, merely makes it confusing at best and poor logic at worst.
  #206  
Old 10-12-2019, 07:02 PM
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I’ve watched him live somewhere around 20 times and I disagree. High walks are not the best indicator of a batter’s eye. Nick doesn’t swing at trash and his preference is clearly to identify the good pitches to swing at in order to utilize his elite bat control. He’s not a wallflower, he wants to hit the ball.
He's also got a 6-7% walk rate all through the minors and college ball. It's not amazing, but it's not Tim Anderson either.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/r...d=madrig000nic

Assuming a .300 BA in the majors that would put him in the .360-370 OBP range.
  #207  
Old 10-12-2019, 09:15 PM
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He's also got a 6-7% walk rate all through the minors and college ball. It's not amazing, but it's not Tim Anderson either.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/r...d=madrig000nic

Assuming a .300 BA in the majors that would put him in the .360-370 OBP range.
See, that’s the thing. I’m not at all comfortable assuming that he can do something that only 19 players in baseball were able to do last year, and if he can’t pull it off, then it’s definitely a liability.
  #208  
Old 10-12-2019, 09:28 PM
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See, that’s the thing. I’m not at all comfortable assuming that he can do something that only 19 players in baseball were able to do last year, and if he can’t pull it off, then it’s definitely a liability.
I'd think .300 would be his floor for BA he's been over that number all through college and most of the minors. Wouldn't be surprising to see him nearer to .325 as a floor for BA. then he'd get to those numbers pretty easily one would think.

He might end up being like Merrifield at KC with a bit higher BA and a bit lower SLG, but in the same area for OPS over all. .320/.380/.420 would still make him a very useful player especially if he can bring stellar defense and a nice amount of SB.

But, you're pretty much convinced he's going to fail. At least that's what all your posts on the subject imply.
  #209  
Old 10-12-2019, 11:49 PM
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I'd think .300 would be his floor for BA he's been over that number all through college and most of the minors. Wouldn't be surprising to see him nearer to .325 as a floor for BA. then he'd get to those numbers pretty easily one would think.

He might end up being like Merrifield at KC with a bit higher BA and a bit lower SLG, but in the same area for OPS over all. .320/.380/.420 would still make him a very useful player especially if he can bring stellar defense and a nice amount of SB.

But, you're pretty much convinced he's going to fail. At least that's what all your posts on the subject imply.
I’m not gonna lie, I think he has a razor-thin margin for error.
  #210  
Old 10-13-2019, 08:45 AM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Originally Posted by DumpJerry View Post
2018 Lucas Giolito meet 2019 Lucas Giolito.
2018 Yoan Moncada strike out performance meet 2019 Yoan Moncada.

Just two examples which everyone gets.
Your examples are two players whose “past performance” in the minors was strong enough to at one time have them labeled as the #1 pitching prospect and #1 overall prospect in the game. Even if you qualify your original statement by saying “past major league performance”, I could point you to advanced metrics (like exit velocity) that showed Moncada had a lot of untapped potential in 2018 (Giolito was admittedly more of a surprise).

But all that is beside the point. You can’t prove your statement that “past performance is no indicator of future return” by giving two counter examples, especially two that we all know to be outliers. “Past performance is no indicator of future return” means that Leury Garcia has as good a chance to be MVP next season as Mike Trout, because who cares about track record, “they’re all human.” Again, I don’t think you actually believe this, rather you meant something like “past performance does not always guarantee a future return,” which is a statement that that very few people would disagree with.

I don’t want to argue with you on semantics, but in this case the semantics matter, because you’re then twisting the statement further to make some very weird points, like the one where stat-heads want to sign Sandy Koufax (as if past history doesn’t tell us anything about how well 80-year-old pitchers would do in the majors) and that the Mets ignored past performance and instead relied on “gut feeling” when they drafted Nolan Ryan.
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