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  #181  
Old 10-12-2019, 07:12 AM
asindc asindc is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
And he would be, just not in his 1st plate appearance.

I donít want a sub-.700 OPS getting the most plate appearances on the team and having the highest likelihood of getting a meaningful plate appearance in the 9th inning down by a run.
Neither do I.
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  #182  
Old 10-12-2019, 08:45 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by harwar View Post
when did a player become obsolete because he doesn't hit the ball out of the park .
As recently as 2014, home runs occurred in 2.3% of all plate appearances. Last year, they occurred in 3.6% of all plate appearances. As far as generating runs is concerned, home runs plated 33.4% of all runs in 2014 and 45.9% of all runs in 2019.

Bottom line, this new approach has elevated runs per plate appearance from .107 in. 2014 to .126 in 2019. Doing things the old way reduces offensive output by 1 run per 52.6 plate appearances.

So the answer would be within the past 5 years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by harwar
don't you need table setters to put runs on the board .
This is another area where intuition contradicts data. A team that hits for power will benefit more from adding another power hitter than adding extra points of OBP. There are diminishing returns at some point, but that doesnít kick in until the 8th or 9th upgrade to a lineup, and the White Sox are nowhere near the point where they have too much power in the lineup and should start focusing more on OBP. Plus, even when you reach that point, those hitters should be hitting at the bottom of the lineup and turning it over by producing fewer outs, not hitting at the top and giving the least powerful hitter the most plate appearances.

Quote:
Originally Posted by harwar[/quote
i miss the stolen base, moving guys over, going first to third, and the hit and run . i'm hoping that this all or nothing home run craze will fade away . maybe they will stop using super balls next year.
This is a separate argument that keeps being brought up where it shouldnít be brought up. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but beauty doesnít win baseball games. Scoring and preventing runs wins baseball games.
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  #183  
Old 10-12-2019, 08:59 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
This is another area where intuition contradicts data. A team that hits for power will benefit more from adding another power hitter than adding extra points of OBP. There are diminishing returns at some point, but that doesn’t kick in until the 8th or 9th upgrade to a lineup, and the White Sox are nowhere near the point where they have too much power in the lineup and should start focusing more on OBP.
Diminishing returns? Like the Laffer Curve for baseball? The eighth or ninth upgrade to the lineup? Meaning eight bangers and one guy that excels at getting on base by not hitting a HR? Are you assuming all eight bangers have other tools like base running skills, can throw, know/how where to throw and how to field? You know, those kind of tools that help prevent runs against?
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  #184  
Old 10-12-2019, 09:15 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by Grzegorz View Post
Diminishing returns? Like the Laffer Curve for baseball? The eighth or ninth upgrade to the lineup? Meaning eight bangers and one guy that excels at getting on base by not hitting a HR? Are you assuming all eight bangers have other tools like base running skills, can throw, know/how where to throw and how to field? You know, those kind of tools that help prevent runs against?
Itís Markov chain analysis. Run prevention is not being considered, only run production. Here is an article that helps explain it.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mark-tru...f-obp-and-slg/
  #185  
Old 10-12-2019, 09:54 AM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Originally Posted by harwar View Post
Having a lead off hitter who sprays line drives to all fields for high average, seems like a good thing to me . when did a player become obsolete because he doesn't hit the ball out of the park . don't you need table setters to put runs on the board . i miss the stolen base, moving guys over, going first to third, and the hit and run . i'm hoping that this all or nothing home run craze will fade away . maybe they will stop using super balls next year.
If he can do that in the majors, then that would be extremely valuable, especially in this "home run or nothing" era.
  #186  
Old 10-12-2019, 09:57 AM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Itís Markov chain analysis. Run prevention is not being considered, only run production. Here is an article that helps explain it.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mark-tru...f-obp-and-slg/
I think thereís a reasonable - and statistically rational - position on this. I think Madrigal can be a net asset to the Sox when figuring both run prevention and run production, but perhaps given the current state of the game in an optimized lineup he ought to be hitting ninth. And moreover, having a contact oriented slap hitter who gets on base by hitting lots of singles hitting ninth, means that the Sox need to ensure their other positions are fielded by players who can hit for power. Is that a fair and reasonable premise?

So ideally, eventually:

Robert develops more plate discipline without sacrificing power and leads off;

Moncada hits second;

Power in found throughout the heart of the lineup from among (depending on the year and who we sign and for how long) Eloy, Vaughn, Sheets, Abreu, Collins, Grandal, Martinez, Adolfo, Rutherford, etc., variously filling LF, RF, DH, 1B and C;

Anderson - who also has pop - is hitting eighth and his speed when on base opens holes for Madrigal to exploit, ideally with Anderson taking an extra base;

Madrigal hitting his way on base, setting up Robert and then Moncada to get lots of ABs with multiple fast runners on base facing distracted pitchers.
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  #187  
Old 10-12-2019, 10:17 AM
blurry blurry is offline
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One other thing to keep in mind is this latest league-wide power surge is being attributed to 3 things, 2 of which are all but certain, and the last uncertain:

1. Player knowledge of the benefit of upward launch angles to lift the ball more

2. Juiced baseballs

3. Undetected PED usage

Ted Williams talked about #1 eighty years ago. #2 has been speculated; unproven, but it's widely accepted the baseballs are juiced. Hitters and pitchers around baseball have said it feels different and carries more. #3 is just pure speculation but cannot be dismissed due to baseball's history with steroids.

#1 will probably never change; however, if MLB reverts the baseballs back to #2, all of a sudden players like Madrigal are going to become more valuable. His slash in the minors was .311/.377/.414/.792; good, but not great. What he does have largely cannot be taught- an elite batting eye. If Madrigal can be a high average hitter with a good OBP and maybe hit 10 HR's per year, he can definitely be a +.800 OPS player.

Time will tell. I don't think he'll ever be as good of a hitter as Tony Gwynn and he'll never have the power of Altuve. But if he can OPS .800 while becoming an elite defender and baserunner at the MLB level, you're looking at a 5 WAR player that's plugging a hole for the team for 10 years.

I'll take that.
  #188  
Old 10-12-2019, 10:22 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Nowhere did I say he definitively canít, or even shouldnít, be a regular on a good team. What I said was if his significant lack of power with the bat follows him up here, he should be hitting at the bottom of the order instead of leading off. You can get away with 1Ėmaybe even 2Ėbats like that in the lineup, but they need to be #8 and #9 in the lineup and contribute mightily with the glove.

Speaking of defense, our 2B is already saving the most runs in the AL. There isnít really any traction to be gained there. Practically all improvement from the 2B position would be with the bat.
  #189  
Old 10-12-2019, 10:30 AM
KRS1 KRS1 is offline
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Ugh. I loathe nerdball.
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  #190  
Old 10-12-2019, 10:36 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by blurry View Post
Time will tell. I don't think he'll ever be as good of a hitter as Tony Gwynn and he'll never have the power of Altuve. But if he can OPS .800 while becoming an elite defender and baserunner at the MLB level, you're looking at a 5 WAR player that's plugging a hole for the team for 10 years.

I'll take that.
Only 4 players posted an rWAR of 4 or better with fewer than 20 home runs. Only 2 did it with fewer than 15 homers. No one had a WAR of 5 or better with fewer than 20 homers.
  #191  
Old 10-12-2019, 10:38 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by KRS1 View Post
Ugh. I loathe nerdball.
Unfortunately, it looks like Rick Renteria and Don Cooper share your opinion.
  #192  
Old 10-12-2019, 12:07 PM
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DumpJerry DumpJerry is offline
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Originally Posted by KRS1 View Post
Ugh. I loathe nerdball.
I miss the old days when the only stat that matters was "which team scored more runs today?"

Here is why I ignore the player stats. I read somewhere, I'll post the link if I can find it, but it turns out Baseball players at all levels are Human Beings. I know this is shock.

Given that the players are Human Beings, their bodies change every day and, over time, wear down. Given this, past performance is no indicator of future return. If we went on stats like some people here constantly advocate, Rick Hahn would sit down with Sandy Koufax's agent to work out a deal.
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  #193  
Old 10-12-2019, 12:13 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Originally Posted by DumpJerry View Post
Given that the players are Human Beings, their bodies change every day and, over time, wear down. Given this, past performance is no indicator of future return. If we went on stats like some people here constantly advocate, Rick Hahn would sit down with Sandy Koufax's agent to work out a deal.
Past performance is no indicator of future return?

That's just a ridiculous statement.

It's not a guarantee, but it's absolutely the best indicator there is.
  #194  
Old 10-12-2019, 12:22 PM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
Past performance is no indicator of future return?

That's just a ridiculous statement.

It's not a guarantee, but it's absolutely the best indicator there is.
I gotta say I don't understand that either. How else should we evaluate a player's current worth and where they should bat in the lineup other than based on what they have done in the past and their age?
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  #195  
Old 10-12-2019, 12:40 PM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Originally Posted by blurry View Post
One other thing to keep in mind is this latest league-wide power surge is being attributed to 3 things, 2 of which are all but certain, and the last uncertain:

1. Player knowledge of the benefit of upward launch angles to lift the ball more

2. Juiced baseballs

3. Undetected PED usage

Ted Williams talked about #1 eighty years ago. #2 has been speculated; unproven, but it's widely accepted the baseballs are juiced. Hitters and pitchers around baseball have said it feels different and carries more. #3 is just pure speculation but cannot be dismissed due to baseball's history with steroids.

#1 will probably never change; however, if MLB reverts the baseballs back to #2, all of a sudden players like Madrigal are going to become more valuable. His slash in the minors was .311/.377/.414/.792; good, but not great. What he does have largely cannot be taught- an elite batting eye. If Madrigal can be a high average hitter with a good OBP and maybe hit 10 HR's per year, he can definitely be a +.800 OPS player.

Time will tell. I don't think he'll ever be as good of a hitter as Tony Gwynn and he'll never have the power of Altuve. But if he can OPS .800 while becoming an elite defender and baserunner at the MLB level, you're looking at a 5 WAR player that's plugging a hole for the team for 10 years.

I'll take that.
Madrigal doesnít have an elite batting eye. He has elite contact skills. Heís an aggressive hitter whose offensive value should primarily be based on a high average and, hopefully, a good amount of doubles.

From all accounts, he also has an elite baseball IQ. Some (Mahoney, I imagine) will argue that this isnít a real thing, but Iím of the opinion that it is, we just havenít yet figured out how to quantify it. I donít think itís just a coincidence that Madrigalís teams seem to perform better with him on the roster, even last year. Though to be fair, that might have had more to do with him being on the same team as Luis Robert most of the year.
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