BP Sox projection.

[russ99]

Originally Posted by dickallen15

Considering the Sox were 4th in the AL in runs scored last season, I think they even scored more runs than the Tigers, with Konerko banged up most of it, and even with Youkilis, about a .600 OPS out of 3B overall, Ramirez pretty ineffective, it's not unreasonable to think the offense should be enough if Viciedo, Beckham or Flowers improves.

With the top of our lineup, especially after adding a good contact bat in Keppinger, we'll score a good amount of runs.

But the real question is if the 6-9 spots can get those RISP/pressure runs in that can win games. Last year, especially late, that was a real challenge.

The other concern is with so many strikeout bats, would opposing starters will last longer in games against us?

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by dickallen15

Considering the Sox were 4th in the AL in runs scored last season, I think they even scored more runs than the Tigers, with Konerko banged up most of it, and even with Youkilis, about a .600 OPS out of 3B overall, Ramirez pretty ineffective, it's not unreasonable to think the offense should be enough if Viciedo, Beckham or Flowers improves.

From the article, PECOTA has shortchanged the Sox an average of about 7 wins per season. They were correct once, in 2007. If you ever get the BP yearly, they even admit they always are a little light on their White Sox win total projections. Chances are they will be light again.

I think you can expect somewhat of a rebound from Konerko and Ramirez and perhaps some growth from Viciedo, but you're going to lose a lot of offense from AJ's 2012 campaign to what we can realistically expect from Flowers, so the questions are going to be A) can the Sox pick up enough offense elsewhere (Dunn? Keppinger? Beckham?) and B) does Flowers' improved defense behind the plate offset that loss?

[dickallen15]

Originally Posted by doublem23

I think you can expect somewhat of a rebound from Konerko and Ramirez and perhaps some growth from Viciedo, but you're going to lose a lot of offense from AJ's 2012 campaign to what we can realistically expect from Flowers, so the questions are going to be A) can the Sox pick up enough offense elsewhere and B) does Flowers' improved defense behind the plate offset that loss?

I am big AJ fan, and really wanted him re-signed. But, if they re-signed him, it is very unlikely he would have matched his 2012 production.

Flowers could bust, Viciedo might not get better, Beckham may be what he is, Rios might revert to his 2011 form, Dunn and Konerko may hit like the last 4 months of last season, Danks might be done, Peavy might be ineffective, Sale may blow out his elbow, blandman might be right for a change and the Sox might be awful. Chances are, a couple of those things will be true, and a couple will be just the opposite. We have to hope that there is more of the opposite.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by dickallen15

I am big AJ fan, and really wanted him re-signed. But, if they re-signed him, it is very unlikely he would have matched his 2012 production.

Oh no doubt, AJ is a huge candidate for regression this season but I think there's still a gap between his floor and Tyler's ceiling offensively for at least 2013 and maybe for several years until AJ's remarkable durability betrays him. So the question that needs to be answered this year is if Tyler's defense and how he handles the pitching staff can make up for the production we've lost offensively.

[SI1020]

Originally Posted by dickallen15

I am big AJ fan, and really wanted him re-signed. But, if they re-signed him, it is very unlikely he would have matched his 2012 production.

Flowers could bust, Viciedo might not get better, Beckham may be what he is, Rios might revert to his 2011 form, Dunn and Konerko may hit like the last 4 months of last season, Danks might be done, Peavy might be ineffective, Sale may blow out his elbow, blandman might be right for a change and the Sox might be awful. Chances are, a couple of those things will be true, and a couple will be just the opposite. We have to hope that there is more of the opposite.

I like this post. It is also one example of why baseball is such a hard sport to predict. Especially if you're using wooden statistical models of dubious value.

[cheezheadsoxfan]

I'm always more scared when we're predicated to do well. And Old Roman, great line about BP being considered relevant.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by cheezheadsoxfan

I'm always more scared when we're predicated to do well. And Old Roman, great line about BP being considered relevant.

BP is extremely relevant in the baseball world. People are free to believe or deny that as much as they'd like, but there's a reason that many BP writers go on to be hired by MLB clubs, other baseball syndicates, or other high profile statistic-driven jobs. I mean, the PECOTA projections here are the brainchild of Nate Silver whose arguably one of the most well respected statisticians in the world at present. I know it's fun to think of these guys as nerds you remember in high school sitting in their parent's basement, splitting time writing numerical fantasies about baseball and watching porn, but the reality is they're deeply intellectual people with a very, very sound understanding of the game and what they're trying to measure and evaluate. If there is a problem with it, it's that too many people who don't fully understand their work put waaaaaay too much stock into certain numbers at times (and subsequently miss the forest for the trees). But that doesn't really change their relevance in the baseball world. There's a reason why everyone looks at BP projections and few others.

[mahagga73]

Originally Posted by blandman

Last year I didn't expect much either. But I expected us to compete. This year, barring some major acquisitions, I do not feel we will be competitive. I think we're right there with KC, at around 75-77 wins. Asking us to win 90 and the Tigers to win less than 90 at the same time is a lot to have happen.

The Sox have good pitching, they should win close to 80 on that alone. I say a good chance to win the same as last year or a few more at least.

[mahagga73]

Originally Posted by doublem23

BP is extremely relevant in the baseball world. People are free to believe or deny that as much as they'd like, but there's a reason that many BP writers go on to be hired by MLB clubs, other baseball syndicates, or other high profile statistic-driven jobs. I mean, the PECOTA projections here are the brainchild of Nate Silver whose arguably one of the most well respected statisticians in the world at present. I know it's fun to think of these guys as nerds you remember in high school sitting in their parent's basement, splitting time writing numerical fantasies about baseball and watching porn, but the reality is they're deeply intellectual people with a very, very sound understanding of the game and what they're trying to measure and evaluate. If there is a problem with it, it's that too many people who don't fully understand their work put waaaaaay too much stock into certain numbers at times (and subsequently miss the forest for the trees). But that doesn't really change their relevance in the baseball world. There's a reason why everyone looks at BP projections and few others.

I follow baseball as close as anybody and I don't know any of my baseball minded friends that ever read BP. I look at it and immediately start getting very sleepy, I've never read it. Their projections are just that, guesses. They are about as accurate as a dartboard usually like a previous poster said. They almost always undersell the Sox . I would bet I could guess the league standings as accurate or moreso than the number crunchers at BP just by looking at the lineups. Don't get me wrong, I love Bill James and sabermetrics, own a whole library of his and others works, but as far as assigning a won loss record before the season, there is no reason to put any stock into this stuff.

[Bucky F. Dent]

We have a good to very good starting rotation, we have a solid group of arms in the bullpen, and we have a good to very good defensive team with our only real weakness being Viciedo's mobility.

It's all going to come down to the bats with this team.

[voodoochile]

Originally Posted by blandman

Do you have a basis for this or are you just using two outlying sox seasons as your basis for their body of work?

No, it's more that when you factor in their standard deviation once you get to 95% accuracy, it really doesn't tell you much.

Also the pitching staff is going to be better than it was last year, IMO. I would lay odds this team will be at or above .500 again.

[mahagga73]

Originally Posted by voodoochile

No, it's more that when you factor in their standard deviation once you get to 95% accuracy, it really doesn't tell you much.

Also the pitching staff is going to be better than it was last year, IMO. I would lay odds this team will be at or above .500 again.

yep this ^^^

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by voodoochile

No, it's more that when you factor in their standard deviation once you get to 95% accuracy, it really doesn't tell you much.

Ignoring the fact that most people are aware that PECOTA Team Projections are more or less a fun exercise in statistical modeling and not to be taken as serious, carved in stone predictions, if you're measuring their accuracy against actual W-L record you've already demonstronstrated your ignorance as to what this projection is actually measuring. Just in case you wonder why nobody ever cares about your ERRRGH STANDARD DEVIATION argument.

[doublem23]

Originally Posted by mahagga73

I follow baseball as close as anybody and I don't know any of my baseball minded friends that ever read BP. I look at it and immediately start getting very sleepy, I've never read it. Their projections are just that, guesses. They are about as accurate as a dartboard usually like a previous poster said. They almost always undersell the Sox . I would bet I could guess the league standings as accurate or moreso than the number crunching nerds at BP just by looking at the lineups. Don't get me wrong, I love Bill James and sabermetrics, own a whole library of his and others works, but as far as assigning a won loss record before the season, there is no reason to put any stock into this stuff.

Do your friends run Major League Baseball teams? No? Then why the **** would anyone care what they value or don't? This is as silly as if I were to say, "well all my friends do read BP SO TAKE THAT." ****, every baseball game I go to I see thousands of people forking over $8+ for a ****ty Miller or Bud. None of that has anything to do with why we have this argument over BP EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. It's because they constantly undersell the Sox, people on the board take offense to it, and then make up all these ridiculous reasons why "OH, UH, BP ISN'T REALLY RELEVANT ANYWAYS" when nothing could be further from the truth.

I'm not saying people have to like them, respect them, care about sabermetrics, or any of that ****. But to say that they don't hold a lot of water in the baseball community is tantamount to arguing with a physicist that that Isaac Newton guy doesn't really matter.

[mahagga73]

Originally Posted by doublem23

Do your friends run Major League Baseball teams? No? Then why the **** would anyone care what they value or don't? This is as silly as if I were to say, "well all my friends do read BP SO TAKE THAT." ****, every baseball game I go to I see thousands of people forking over $8+ for a ****ty Miller or Bud. None of that has anything to do with why we have this argument over BP EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. It's because they constantly undersell the Sox, people on the board take offense to it, and then make up all these ridiculous reasons why "OH, UH, BP ISN'T REALLY RELEVANT ANYWAYS" when nothing could be further from the truth.

I'm not saying people have to like them, respect them, care about sabermetrics, or any of that ****. But to say that they don't hold a lot of water in the baseball community is tantamount to arguing with a physicist that that Isaac Newton guy doesn't really matter.

Don't get why are so adamant about everyone acknowledging the greatness of BP. You act like you have an interest in it or something. I don't care how many of it's writers get hired by MLB teams. WHO CARES? It's just another rag to me and others.