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  #181  
Old 07-20-2019, 12:47 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
I'll be pretty surprised if Cease and Kopech don't make it and won't be shocked if Lopez does. Only question mark then is Dunning who yes the jury is out on, but there are other guys coming too. Still, I agree the Sox will probably acquire another pitcher if for no other reason then it's good to have a veteran who can lead the way and be an emotional anchor for the staff and team. Of course by next year Lopez and Giolito will be on year 3 and Cease will be on year two, so there will be less immediate need for that kind of support (hopefully).

Also, remember, this isn't going 4/4. They have already lost Fulmer, Rodon, Hansen and all the guys from Charlotte who were projected as possible #5 starters two years ago (Stephens, Adams and Guerrero), so this is more like going 4/9 and that's not an unheard of number for advanced pitching prospects.
My concern isnít really related to ability as much as it is related to health. The only guy in the group who hasnít had major reconstructive surgery is Lopez.
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  #182  
Old 07-20-2019, 01:01 PM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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My concern isnít really related to ability as much as it is related to health. The only guy in the group who hasnít had major reconstructive surgery is Lopez.
Interesting. You got me Googling and it turns out 26% of all active MLB pitchers as of 2017 had had TJS. Wonder if that number has increased.

~87% of all games featured at least one pitcher who had the procedure that year.

The article is from April 2018 so there's updates to people who had the surgery early that year also.

https://tht.fangraphs.com/ten-intere...-john-surgery/
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  #183  
Old 07-20-2019, 01:09 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Are negotiating windows still allowed? If so, maybe we should explore the idea of trading for Bumgarner. Since he canít block a trade to the White Sox, this may be a decent fallback option for the Giants if other trade options fall apart.

Letís get a 24-hour window next Thursday when the Giants are off. Pitch the following contract offer to Bumgarner:

5 years/$130 million guaranteed, with vesting/team options that could bring it up to 10 years/$205 million.

1) $5 million assignment bonus payable in 2019 upon completion of trade

2) 2020: $15.5 million
2021: $17.5 million
2022: $20 million
2023 and 2024: $23.5 million

2025-2029: Annual vesting/team options for $15 million that vest if Bumgarner starts at least 25 games the previous season; $5 million buyouts for each year, with all buyouts guaranteed.

$5 million assignment bonus + $100 million in salaries + $25 million in guaranteed buyouts gets Bumgarner to a $26 million AAV through his age-34 season and gives the White Sox the ability to maneuver $30 million of it to a more team-friendly payment schedule. Basically, the option buyouts can be thought of as $25 million in deferred salary, and Bumgarner has a chance to earn an extra $10 million per year on top of those buyouts if he can remain durable.

If Bumgarner says yes, then proceed to work out a trade package with the Giants. Let them choose one of Luis Basabe or Luis Gonzalez, plus Gavin Sheets, plus Bryce Bush. Let the Giants know that if they canít find a better prospect return, our offer is still on the table until the deadline passes.
Thought you didn't want Bumgarner as of like a few weeks ago?

I really don't see him commanding $130 mil guaranteed at this point in his career and how free agency is trending. A 4 year deal makes most sense for him I think. I would rather not be giving up prospects, whether they are blocked or not, for a pitcher they can sign in the offseason giving up nothing. Those blocked prospects can then be used in trades to fill other holes.
  #184  
Old 07-20-2019, 01:39 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Thought you didn't want Bumgarner as of like a few weeks ago?

I really don't see him commanding $130 mil guaranteed at this point in his career and how free agency is trending. A 4 year deal makes most sense for him I think. I would rather not be giving up prospects, whether they are blocked or not, for a pitcher they can sign in the offseason giving up nothing. Those blocked prospects can then be used in trades to fill other holes.

We need to stop thinking about what free agents command in the market versus what it will take a free agent to sign here. He probably wouldn't get that in the market from anyone else. But if we don't offer that, he's not even thinking about coming here.
  #185  
Old 07-20-2019, 02:04 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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We need to stop thinking about what free agents command in the market versus what it will take a free agent to sign here. He probably wouldn't get that in the market from anyone else. But if we don't offer that, he's not even thinking about coming here.
You have no idea if individually every player views the White Sox as bad team to sign with and will have to be overpaid to go there.

If a young, up-and-coming team that's based in the 3rd largest city calls and offers a more than fair contract to play for them, you think long and hard about it.

Last edited by ChiSoxNationPres; 07-20-2019 at 02:26 PM.
  #186  
Old 07-20-2019, 02:55 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Thought you didn't want Bumgarner as of like a few weeks ago?

I really don't see him commanding $130 mil guaranteed at this point in his career and how free agency is trending. A 4 year deal makes most sense for him I think. I would rather not be giving up prospects, whether they are blocked or not, for a pitcher they can sign in the offseason giving up nothing. Those blocked prospects can then be used in trades to fill other holes.
I donít want Bumgarner if he is the only addition. If their plan is to add one rotation piece and two or three LaRoche-Melky-Castillo small potatoes deals, I would rather just use 2020 to develop more youth and save that money for next offseason.

Iím not really sold on signing pitchers north of 30, but I know Cole is off-limits for us. This team seems to be chirping a lot about competing next year, and if theyíre serious about it, that will require importing two top-of-the-line starters.

As for the money, the most recent comparable is Chris Sale. Saleís 5-year extension is $145 million, covering his age-31 through age-35 seasons at a $29 million AAV, with an opt-out after his age-33 season. Bumgarner is a year younger than Sale, so that $130 million would be for his age-30 through age-34 seasons at a $26 million AAV, with $25 million deferred so we can accommodate another high-end starter via trade, and no opt-out.

Itís not an overpay in AAV (some high-end arms are getting paid $30 million or more, which is what I expect Cole to get over 6 or possibly 7 years) nor in contract length (most free agent or extension contracts for premium pitchers are going to age-34 or age-35, with some going longer).

Like you said, weíre going to have to trade prospects to fill holes at some point. Why not start by filling the biggest holes on the team (the rotation)? The other holes (2B, OF, 1B/DH if Abreu leaves) are going to be filled initially by internal options anyway. Plus, by the time we get a verdict one way or the other on how well guys like Robert, Madrigal, Vaughn, and Rutherford can do filling those holes, the kids Iím talking about moving in this trade will need to be accommodated with 40-man spots. There arenít enough of those spots to protect every single advanced prospect we like, so extracting trade value from some of them before a roster crunch is created is not the worst idea in the world.
  #187  
Old 07-20-2019, 03:11 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
You have no idea if individually every player views the White Sox as bad team to sign with and will have to be overpaid to go there.

If a young, up-and-coming team that's based in the 3rd largest city calls and offers a more than fair contract to play for them, you think long and hard about it.
You absolutely think long and hard about it. If giving Bumgarner an offer to seriously think about for a few months is the only thing that comes out of this process, it will have been worth it.

I agree that the most logical course of action for most teams would be to just wait until free agency opens. However, with this teamís history in the free agent market, I would not mind one bit if bold measures are taken to gain an inside track on landing an impact free agent.
  #188  
Old 07-20-2019, 04:09 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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They should move Colome and Abreu and maybe others, but only if the trades make sense.

I don't think the Sox should be buying anyone major at the deadline. Use the cash they've hoarded to get Cole or Bumgarner and other quality pitchers in the offseason.

I would like to see some minor trades at the deadline or early in the offseason, for 40-man roster management. Package 2 or 3 guys who don't figure to be on the 40 once all the key pieces arrive for 1 guy who does.
  #189  
Old 07-20-2019, 07:59 PM
TDog TDog is offline
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
They should move Colome and Abreu and maybe others, but only if the trades make sense.

I don't think the Sox should be buying anyone major at the deadline. Use the cash they've hoarded to get Cole or Bumgarner and other quality pitchers in the offseason.

I would like to see some minor trades at the deadline or early in the offseason, for 40-man roster management. Package 2 or 3 guys who don't figure to be on the 40 once all the key pieces arrive for 1 guy who does.
I don't think Bumgarner would go to the White Sox even if they offered him the most attractive contract because he enjoys hitting so much. In the past he has lobbied to get into the Home Run Derby. A couple of pitchers have, but the commissioner barred pitchers, probably because it would insult the American League. If the White Sox struck a deal that would guarantee Bumgarner starts at DH. If Bumgarner were to take an AL deal, it would have to be for a situation better than the White Sox and for substantially more than his value.

He's so important to the history of the Giants, that I really want to see him stay in San Francisco.
  #190  
Old 07-20-2019, 10:38 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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After tonight's game, I think we match up well with the Rays. They need Colome and Leury.
  #191  
Old 07-21-2019, 03:43 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica
They should move Colome and Abreu and maybe others, but only if the trades make sense.

I don't think the Sox should be buying anyone major at the deadline. Use the cash they've hoarded to get Cole or Bumgarner and other quality pitchers in the offseason.

I would like to see some minor trades at the deadline or early in the offseason, for 40-man roster management. Package 2 or 3 guys who don't figure to be on the 40 once all the key pieces arrive for 1 guy who does.
Oh you definitely still move Abreu and Colomť anyway. Iím just talking about doing some 2020 shopping a few months early.
  #192  
Old 07-21-2019, 09:14 AM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Originally Posted by A. Cavatica View Post
After tonight's game, I think we match up well with the Rays. They need Colome and Leury.
They really do. They could use Abreu too.
And they damn sure have some young pitching.

Last edited by Tragg; 07-21-2019 at 11:31 AM.
  #193  
Old 07-23-2019, 10:46 PM
ChiSoxNationPres ChiSoxNationPres is offline
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Start the rumors for relievers:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...relievers.html

The Braves are a great team to have interest in Sox bullpen arms, as they have plenty of young pitching in their system.
  #194  
Old 07-23-2019, 10:54 PM
KRS1 KRS1 is offline
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Start the rumors for relievers:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...relievers.html

The Braves are a great team to have interest in Sox bullpen arms, as they have plenty of young pitching in their system.
Said it before and Iíll stick with the sentiment. Kyle Wright is a guy we can afford to give starts to work out his issues - the Braves lack the same luxury.
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  #195  
Old 07-23-2019, 10:56 PM
A. Cavatica A. Cavatica is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxNationPres View Post
Start the rumors for relievers:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...relievers.html

The Braves are a great team to have interest in Sox bullpen arms, as they have plenty of young pitching in their system.
The article says they are not inclined to trade Bummer or Fry.

I belive that about Bummer. I think the comment about Fry is to make him seem more valuable when they offer him as an alternative to Bummer. Fry is older, not as good, and (I believe) comes with fewer years of control.
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