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  #16  
Old 07-21-2019, 04:50 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by TDog View Post
First, the "norm" is irrelevant. The norm averages success and failure and treats all game situations equally. In a game with two solo home runs between the two teams being the only scoring over the first nine innings, taking a different approach to drive in runners who might resulted in more runs.

The Rays opened the ninth with a walk and a single, and they couldn't push across the winning run. A successful sacrifice bunt likely would have won them the game. The White Sox opened the 11th with a a walk and a ground ball that wasn't hit hard enough for the Rays to have turned a double play if it had been hit to the second baseman, and it's the reason the Sox won. Even if the right fielder had been playing shallow (unlikely against Abreu, which increased the value of him punching the ball through the vacated hole on the right side), Moncada would have been standing at third with nobody out. You don't even need to get a hit to score from third with nobody out.

Baseball is a game of constantly shifting situations. Winning can often be a matter of situational hitting.
The norm is relevant. Setting an expectation level beyond the norm is unrealistic. League-wide, RISP is only a 10-point batting average bump from overall average, .263 to .253. 85% of all baserunners die on the basepaths. Like Avi and McCann proved, the best course of action is to just take all the uncertainty out of the equation and drive yourself in.

Bad situational hitting is not what is keeping this team from being good. They don’t get on base enough or slug enough to be good. Once that gets fixed, then we can worry about the situational hitting.

Perfect example: only 6 teams in MLB are more efficient at scoring a runner from 3B with fewer than 2 out than the White Sox. The problem? 22 teams in MLB have had more opportunities to execute in this situation than the White Sox. The problem is even further magnified when you consider that the White Sox are also 10th-best in MLB at advancing runners on 2B with nobody out. Again, the number of opportunities has been low. We’re only 17th in number of opportunities in this area.

As far as advancing baserunners, we’re actually better than most teams in baseball. Yet everybody still boo-hoos a “lack of fundamentals” from Sox hitters. If anything, they already are doing what you want them to do, and they’re still losing games. Lack of extra-base power and lack of ability to draw walks are damaging the offense more than any lack of situational hitting.
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  #17  
Old 07-21-2019, 04:54 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by Grzegorz View Post
What it really shows you is the value of speed & pitching.
None of that awesome speed did a damn thing for 10 innings. Without the McCann solo homer, the speed never even factors into it, and it’s a 1-0 loss in regulation, with the only run being produced by Avi’s home run.
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  #18  
Old 07-21-2019, 05:51 AM
WSox597 WSox597 is offline
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Originally Posted by Brian26 View Post
Fun game, nice win. How the hell is Avi playing CF in Tampa? Good grief.
I thought the same thing. I figured the Sox might exploit that, but with the pitching the way it was not much was hit out to him.
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  #19  
Old 07-21-2019, 06:17 AM
LITTLE NELL LITTLE NELL is offline
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Originally Posted by Brian26 View Post
Fun game, nice win. How the hell is Avi playing CF in Tampa? Good grief.
I have no idea why Kiermaier didn't start the game against Giolito but once he got in the game he came up with another injury when he jammed his thumb sliding head first into first base, Kevin plays the game as hard as any player I have ever seen but it's one injury after another with him. Klermaier is batting almost 100 points higher against lefthanded pitching than righthanded but with mostly singles and only one homer out of his 10.
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  #20  
Old 07-21-2019, 06:20 AM
LITTLE NELL LITTLE NELL is offline
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Originally Posted by XplodingScorbord View Post
McCann comes up big and YoYo with the speed to win it. Go get the sweep tomorrow!
I didn't realize Yoan is that fast, he looked like a track star scooting around from 1st to home.
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  #21  
Old 07-21-2019, 06:24 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
None of that awesome speed did a damn thing for 10 innings. Without the McCann solo homer, the speed never even factors into it, and it’s a 1-0 loss in regulation, with the only run being produced by Avi’s home run.
Speed always matters. Speed puts pressure on a defense. In this era in baseball where the fundamentals are so gawd awful speed is deadly.

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Originally Posted by LITTLE NELL View Post
I have no idea why Kiermaier didn't start the game against Giolito but once he got in the game he came up with another injury when he jammed his thumb sliding head first into first base, Kevin plays the game as hard as any player I have ever seen but it's one injury after another with him. Klermaier is batting almost 100 points higher against lefthanded pitching than righthanded but with mostly singles and only one homer out of his 10.
Kiermaier reminded me of Pete Reiser. The injury part of course. Reiser was a machine before injuries forced him from the game.
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  #22  
Old 07-21-2019, 06:33 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by Grzegorz View Post
Speed always matters. Speed puts pressure on a defense. In this era in baseball where the fundamentals are so gawd awful speed is deadly.
Except it didn’t put any pressure on the rays for the first 26 outs...

The White Sox had a 3.2% probability of winning that game going into the McCann at-bat. If not for McCann’s home run, we’re talking about how feckless the offense is, how a fantastic effort by Giolito was wasted, and how getting rid of Avi for nothing was a bad move, because his home run was the only offense in the game.
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  #23  
Old 07-21-2019, 06:37 AM
asindc asindc is online now
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
The norm is relevant. Setting an expectation level beyond the norm is unrealistic. League-wide, RISP is only a 10-point batting average bump from overall average, .263 to .253. 85% of all baserunners die on the basepaths. Like Avi and McCann proved, the best course of action is to just take all the uncertainty out of the equation and drive yourself in.

Bad situational hitting is not what is keeping this team from being good. They don’t get on base enough or slug enough to be good. Once that gets fixed, then we can worry about the situational hitting.

Perfect example: only 6 teams in MLB are more efficient at scoring a runner from 3B with fewer than 2 out than the White Sox. The problem? 22 teams in MLB have had more opportunities to execute in this situation than the White Sox. The problem is even further magnified when you consider that the White Sox are also 10th-best in MLB at advancing runners on 2B with nobody out. Again, the number of opportunities has been low. We’re only 17th in number of opportunities in this area.

As far as advancing baserunners, we’re actually better than most teams in baseball. Yet everybody still boo-hoos a “lack of fundamentals” from Sox hitters. If anything, they already are doing what you want them to do, and they’re still losing games. Lack of extra-base power and lack of ability to draw walks are damaging the offense more than any lack of situational hitting.
I prefer they continue to get better at situational hitting while improving OBP and slugging. These skills are not mutually exclusive. In fact, they are complimentary when done right.
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  #24  
Old 07-21-2019, 07:56 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by asindc View Post
I prefer they continue to get better at situational hitting while improving OBP and slugging. These skills are not mutually exclusive. In fact, they are complimentary when done right.
Except the levels that they are producing at are not problematic. Besides, there isn’t really all that much variance between the best and worst situational hitting teams anyway.

We’re scoring runners from 3B with fewer than 2 out at a 53.6% clip. The best percentage in the majors is 58.7%. Even if we became the best team in the majors in this category, it would raise our current total of 89 runs to 97 runs. We’re talking about 15 runs max for an entire season. Since a little over 3 runs is produced by every 2 home runs, it’s a whole lot easier to just upgrade the slappy scrappy sinkholes in our order with guys who can hit the ball out of the ballpark more often, even if the situational hitting takes a step backward as a result.
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  #25  
Old 07-21-2019, 09:16 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Since a little over 3 runs is produced by every 2 home runs, it’s a whole lot easier to just upgrade the slappy scrappy sinkholes in our order with guys who can hit the ball out of the ballpark more often, even if the situational hitting takes a step backward as a result.
You mean guys like Eloy correct? Tommy LaStella, Dan Vogelbach, Omar Narvaez (wait... never mind), Brandon Lowe?

Maybe Todd Frazier? ('The' Todd Frazier of the Mets who happened to hit a 373-foot home run against the San Francisco Giants using just one arm and one leg?)
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  #26  
Old 07-21-2019, 09:32 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by Grzegorz View Post
You mean guys like Eloy correct? Tommy LaStella, Dan Vogelbach, Omar Narvaez (wait... never mind), Brandon Lowe?

Maybe Todd Frazier? ('The' Todd Frazier of the Mets who happened to hit a 373-foot home run against the San Francisco Giants using just one arm and one leg?)
Robert will be replacing a noodle-bat outfielder next year. Reed is an improvement over Alonso. Still need a RF who can hit for some power, unless Robert (unlikely) ends up in RF to accommodate a better defensive CF. If Rendon signs here (again, unlikely), replacing Yolmer’s bat with Rendon’s would be another huge boost.
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  #27  
Old 07-21-2019, 11:20 AM
asindc asindc is online now
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
Except the levels that they are producing at are not problematic. Besides, there isn’t really all that much variance between the best and worst situational hitting teams anyway.

We’re scoring runners from 3B with fewer than 2 out at a 53.6% clip. The best percentage in the majors is 58.7%. Even if we became the best team in the majors in this category, it would raise our current total of 89 runs to 97 runs. We’re talking about 15 runs max for an entire season. Since a little over 3 runs is produced by every 2 home runs, it’s a whole lot easier to just upgrade the slappy scrappy sinkholes in our order with guys who can hit the ball out of the ballpark more often, even if the situational hitting takes a step backward as a result.
15 runs could be the difference between winning the division rather than missing the playoffs.
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  #28  
Old 07-21-2019, 11:26 AM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Originally Posted by asindc View Post
15 runs could be the difference between winning the division rather than missing the playoffs.
Very... very... rarely... and then only if they are perfectly placed throughout the season.
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  #29  
Old 07-21-2019, 12:17 PM
asindc asindc is online now
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
Very... very... rarely... and then only if they are perfectly placed throughout the season.
2-3 games difference wins a division more often than “very, very rarely.”
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  #30  
Old 07-21-2019, 12:24 PM
Falstaff Falstaff is offline
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Originally Posted by Brian26 View Post
Fun game, nice win. How the hell is Avi playing CF in Tampa? Good grief.
I was on the small bandwagon of disbelief when the White Sox released him. That bat and OF would have been handy on the current roster... oh well.
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