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  #76  
Old 12-14-2019, 02:08 AM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
Curious because I read somewhere Bumgarner had the highest increase in spin rate in baseball last year. Giolito was second.

More spin, less velocity... and bad results. He's getting worse by the numbers - especially by peripherals. 4ish FIP three straight years, ERA is now catching up. On top of that...he gives up a lot of home runs. Which would play worse here.


Quote:
Originally Posted by DubuqueSox View Post
Bumgarner had a league-leading 34 starts. He also pitched 207 innings in the National League and averaged practically a strikeout per inning. He would be a wonderful addition to our staff, especially with his big-game experience.

That's not a metric that gives you any information on the quality of pitcher he is. Jaime Navarro threw 209 innings for us in '97, and not one person here is going to mistake his 5.79 ERA that year as a "wonderful" addition to anything but a trash heap.

Innings matter, sure. But average/below average innings in volume are not as valuable as a smaller amount of elite innings. Yes, get innings that improve the club. But...we probably shouldn't spend $100 million on 200 innings of average to below average pitching. And that's what Madison Bumgarner is going to give you.
  #77  
Old 12-14-2019, 04:45 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
More spin, less velocity... and bad results. He's getting worse by the numbers - especially by peripherals. 4ish FIP three straight years, ERA is now catching up. On top of that...he gives up a lot of home runs. Which would play worse here.
Yeah, he gives up alot of home runs. So do a lot of pitchers (big names?) over nine:


https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/stats?...=1&splitType=0
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  #78  
Old 12-14-2019, 09:12 AM
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
More spin, less velocity... and bad results. He's getting worse by the numbers - especially by peripherals. 4ish FIP three straight years, ERA is now catching up. On top of that...he gives up a lot of home runs. Which would play worse here.





That's not a metric that gives you any information on the quality of pitcher he is. Jaime Navarro threw 209 innings for us in '97, and not one person here is going to mistake his 5.79 ERA that year as a "wonderful" addition to anything but a trash heap.

Innings matter, sure. But average/below average innings in volume are not as valuable as a smaller amount of elite innings. Yes, get innings that improve the club. But...we probably shouldn't spend $100 million on 200 innings of average to below average pitching. And that's what Madison Bumgarner is going to give you.
His velocity was the highest it’s been since 2015.
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  #79  
Old 12-14-2019, 10:01 AM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Bum also can teach these kids how to win. We need some leaders. Everyone can say what they want about the Cubs, but one of the best things they did to their young core was bring in Ross and Lester. Right now our only real player with any kind of playoff leadership experience is Grandal (and he wouldn’t be mistaken for a guy who excels in the playoffs). They need leaders, Bum
Fits that and I think a guy like Giolito would respond well. And guys who have been called out for being lazy - Lopez - need someone to hold their ass to the fire
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  #80  
Old 12-14-2019, 11:27 AM
blandman blandman is offline
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Originally Posted by Grzegorz View Post
Yeah, he gives up alot of home runs. So do a lot of pitchers (big names?) over nine:


https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/stats?...=1&splitType=0

Yeah. We have one of the guys up there with him. How was his ERA?


MadBum is a guy who would be well served to sign with a team like Detroit or San Diego where their massive ballparks would mask his home runs allowed and allow him to remain relevant longer.
  #81  
Old 12-14-2019, 11:31 AM
blandman blandman is offline
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On velocity - http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.p...ate=12/14/2019


His fastball is 91 MPH. He's fluctuating within that the last four years. But it's down 2 ticks from when he was good. That's reason number one he's not good anymore.


On teaching - I'm all for paying someone to teach our kids to pitch. If you don't think he's the guy, maybe Coop will step down.
  #82  
Old 12-14-2019, 11:34 AM
blandman blandman is offline
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I'm unsure where to post about Mazara anymore, so I'll put it here.


MLB tonight did an analysis of the move and one of the moderators really liked the move for us. Said Mazara's largest problem was movement which was inconsistent and he fixed that in the second half last year. Expects him to improve this year. Here's hoping.
  #83  
Old 12-14-2019, 11:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blandman View Post
I'm unsure where to post about Mazara anymore, so I'll put it here.


MLB tonight did an analysis of the move and one of the moderators really liked the move for us. Said Mazara's largest problem was movement which was inconsistent and he fixed that in the second half last year. Expects him to improve this year. Here's hoping.
You can start a thread about current Sox players in the Clubhouse. The reason this thread got ****canned is because it devolved into the same argument the other thread is about and I got tired of watching the fight play out. Legitimate discussion of current players can be posted in the Clubhouse as always.

This thread is mostly speculation and mudslinging though so it can stay here.
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  #84  
Old 12-14-2019, 11:44 AM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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Originally Posted by Domeshot17 View Post
Bum also can teach these kids how to win. We need some leaders. Everyone can say what they want about the Cubs, but one of the best things they did to their young core was bring in Ross and Lester.
But Lester can also pitch. We hard the same spin about James Shields: worth the price because of his effect on young pitchers. Sox have enough "leaders" and teachers and "good in the clubhouse" types.
They need guys who can pitch.
  #85  
Old 12-14-2019, 11:49 AM
blandman blandman is offline
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But Lester can also pitch. We hard the same spin about James Shields: worth the price because of his effect on young pitchers. Sox have enough "leaders" and teachers and "good in the clubhouse" types.
They need guys who can pitch.

Yeah...the Cubs didn't sign Lester to be a coach. They benefited from it. But they gave him 9 figures because he was a good pitcher still.
  #86  
Old 12-14-2019, 01:20 PM
DubuqueSox DubuqueSox is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blandman View Post
More spin, less velocity... and bad results. He's getting worse by the numbers - especially by peripherals. 4ish FIP three straight years, ERA is now catching up. On top of that...he gives up a lot of home runs. Which would play worse here.





That's not a metric that gives you any information on the quality of pitcher he is. Jaime Navarro threw 209 innings for us in '97, and not one person here is going to mistake his 5.79 ERA that year as a "wonderful" addition to anything but a trash heap.

Innings matter, sure. But average/below average innings in volume are not as valuable as a smaller amount of elite innings. Yes, get innings that improve the club. But...we probably shouldn't spend $100 million on 200 innings of average to below average pitching. And that's what Madison Bumgarner is going to give you.

Bumgarner had a better ERA this season than Wheeler did, more starts, more innings, more strikeouts, etc. Plus, he has had a far better career. He might be the best World Series pitcher ever. Wheeler has never pitched in the postseason. I really don't understand all the love for Wheeler and all the disdain for Bumgarner, who is just one year older.

Steve Stone has tweeted that Bumgarner would be a great addition, and he is exactly right on that point.
  #87  
Old 12-14-2019, 01:26 PM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
On velocity - http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.p...ate=12/14/2019


His fastball is 91 MPH. He's fluctuating within that the last four years. But it's down 2 ticks from when he was good. That's reason number one he's not good anymore.
It's actually down 1.3 ticks and I'm not sure why you would say "he's not good anymore". His peripherals are still very solid.
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  #88  
Old 12-14-2019, 01:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DubuqueSox View Post
Bumgarner had a better ERA this season than Wheeler did, more starts, more innings, more strikeouts, etc. Plus, he has had a far better career. He might be the best World Series pitcher ever. Wheeler has never pitched in the postseason. I really don't understand all the love for Wheeler and all the disdain for Bumgarner, who is just one year older.

Steve Stone has tweeted that Bumgarner would be a great addition, and he is exactly right on that point.
Are we signing a pitcher for what happens in 2020, or what happens within the next 3-5 years?

Wheeler at age 29 has pitched 749 innings. Bumgarner at the same age has pitched 1846 innings. Of course there are exceptions to the rule, but many pitchers begin to decline after 2,000 innings pitched and even more so after they hit 2,200.

Bumgarner may be better than Wheeler THIS year, but I'm willing to put money down on Wheeler being better than Bumgarner in seasons 2021-2024 and it's mostly due to the mileage on each of their respective arms.
  #89  
Old 12-14-2019, 01:53 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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The usage rate is added value. $~20 AAV for 200 innings of average LH pitching is worth the investment. Average 150-inning starters are making something like $12-15 AAV nowadays, and average bullpen coverage for those other 50 innings is sure to eat up most of the difference.

Getting the hell out of there every 5th day with only 2 or 3 bullpen appearances instead of 4 or 5 adds up over the course of the season. I would even be willing to pay $~25 AAV for that.

Just offer him Wheeler’s 5/$125 and see if he’s cool with deferring about $25 of it so we can get Keuchel as well.

Would you rather go 5/$125 on Bumgarner or 3/$96 on Price?

Personally, I would love to see both, especially if the rumors of Boston being willing to pay Price down to $~20ish AAV are true. Tell Boston to pay $32 of the $96 in $0/$16/$16 installments. That makes the trade more beneficial to Boston by helping to reset the repeater tax penalties, which should lessen the demand for outgoing talent.

Price at $32/$16/$16 and Bumgarner at something like $25/$22.5/$17.5/$17.5/$17.5 with $5/$5/$5/$5/$5 deferred should be doable. If the main concern is payroll flexibility for the future, this provides plenty of flexibility in exchange for paying more up front.
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  #90  
Old 12-14-2019, 02:23 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DubuqueSox View Post
Bumgarner had a better ERA this season than Wheeler did, more starts, more innings, more strikeouts, etc. Plus, he has had a far better career. He might be the best World Series pitcher ever. Wheeler has never pitched in the postseason. I really don't understand all the love for Wheeler and all the disdain for Bumgarner, who is just one year older.

Steve Stone has tweeted that Bumgarner would be a great addition, and he is exactly right on that point.

ERA is not a stat I'd use to discuss pitchers because it can very significantly based on luck, defenses, and quality of bullpen. I prefer FIP and xFIP, which take those into account to give the truest possible measure of how a pitcher is throwing. In both, he's a mid/back rotation 4 FIP starter.


Look, I'd be all for him under certain circumstances. Like if we went out and got an ace to slot in front of Giolito, and then brought in MadBum on a one year deal to compete with Lopez for the fifth starter spot...then yes, that would be a great deal. But hoping he's anything more than that is just extreme wishful thinking.


Quote:
Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
It's actually down 1.3 ticks and I'm not sure why you would say "he's not good anymore". His peripherals are still very solid.

His peripherals are solid for a back end starter.

Last edited by blandman; 12-14-2019 at 02:39 PM. Reason: grammar
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