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  #31  
Old 08-16-2019, 04:57 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is online now
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Originally Posted by TDog View Post
Statistics and situational reality are two independent things that sometimes overlap. Baseball isn't played on a spreadsheet.

The 2012 Adam Dunn wasn't a rip. It was an extreme example of a player that can be bad, can hurt the team offensively with an .800 OPS. If you don't believe the overall effects of Dunn's 2012 offense were not negative for the White Sox, you weren't paying attention.
But...he’s not hurting the team with that performance. He’s helping the team more than Brantley is. That’s the point.

You’re just plain factually incorrect.
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  #32  
Old 08-16-2019, 05:42 PM
Paulwny Paulwny is offline
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And the 2012 Dunn rip is simply incorrect. A team of 9 2012 Dunns would have a .579 winning percentage
How do you know this would be the winning percentage?
A team of 9 Adam Dunns wouldn't be able to play defense, they'd give up a ton of runs.
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  #33  
Old 08-16-2019, 06:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Paulwny View Post
How do you know this would be the winning percentage?
A team of 9 Adam Dunns wouldn't be able to play defense, they'd give up a ton of runs.
These stats are fielding independent. Obviously we are not talking about playing Dunn at C, SS and CF. The theory is IF you had 9 players who all hit like Adam Dunn AND could play their position at league average levels they would have a .579 Winning percentage by Pythagorean calculations. That's just an estimate, obviously things vary when put on the field.

We're strictly talking about offensive output here.
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  #34  
Old 08-17-2019, 05:24 AM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Originally Posted by TDog View Post
I think OPS is not at all a predictor for runs.
You say you "think" OPS is not a predictor of runs. I imagine this is an opinion, based on your own experience and (clearly extensive) knowledge of the game, as well as your personal biases against advanced statistics (if that's what we consider OPS). But I don't think it's based on any hard evidence, that looks at all the data rather than some anecdotal cases (like the Harper one) that stick out in your mind.

What if I told you that I just did it? I was able to use OPS as a predictor of runs, and I got pretty amazingly accurate results. I looked at all the seasons played by all MLB teams since 2000, and I predicted runs scored based only on OPS. On average, I ended up being able to predict the season run total within 19 runs (mean absolute error). That's within 2.6% of the average runs scored during that period, which to me is pretty good.

For context, the margin of error was 39 runs for batting average, 30 runs for OBP, 26 runs for SLG, 20 runs for wOBA, and 47 runs for wRC+. I actually have no idea how those latter two stats are calculated and what they highlight about a player's performance, but they were in the dataset I was able to find. My guess is that wRC+ is designed to fill in some of the gaps that a meta-stat like OPS is missing, which would mean that it isn't that great of a predictor on its own but might be better in combination with OPS. I didn't look at that in my analysis though.

By the way, I was also able to predict team wins with a margin of error of 8 wins, using nothing but team OPS. That margin of error drops to 3.6 wins if I factor in team ERA, which is obviously an important component of winning games that OPS doesn't capture.

To me, this is clear and convincing evidence that OPS is a very strong predictor of runs (and winning). It is also exactly this reason that every team in MLB values OPS so highly.

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OPS is a number built upon two statistics that are organic to the game. They have overlap, but each only tells you so much.
Nobody, especially sabermetrically-inclined people, think any one stat tells you everything there is about a hitter. That's why there are so many damn sabermetric stats.

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OPS is a vague, lazy statistical construct that may not tell you what you think it does.
Not sure what's lazy about it. It's pretty clear from the name of the stat ("on base plus slugging") what it means and what's going into it. And as pointed above, it's so often cited because it is the best 1-number summary for predicting runs.

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Every statistic is taken out of context.
This, I certainly agree with.
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  #35  
Old 08-17-2019, 05:31 AM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
And the 2012 Dunn rip is simply incorrect. A team of 9 2012 Dunns would have a .579 winning percentage.

Let’s take, say, 2012 Michael Brantley for comparison. His .288/.348/.402 slash and 56:53 K:BB ratio fits right in with the “strikeouts and walks and home runs are icky” crowd. A team of 9 2012 Brantleys would have a .545 winning percentage.

Increased contact doesn’t mean a thing if most of it is on the ground.
To me this is a clear example of the misuse of statistics that TDog was talking about. No team in history has ever had 9 players that resembled 2012 Adam Dunn in their lineup. To think you can estimate the winning percentage of such a team is clearly an extrapolation.
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  #36  
Old 08-17-2019, 10:46 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
We're strictly talking about offensive output here.
You're not talking about baseball. Why engage in a hypothetical?


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Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
To me this is a clear example of the misuse of statistics that TDog was talking about. No team in history has ever had 9 players that resembled 2012 Adam Dunn in their lineup. To think you can estimate the winning percentage of such a team is clearly an extrapolation.

It's talk for talk's sake.
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Last edited by Grzegorz; 08-17-2019 at 11:01 AM.
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  #37  
Old 08-17-2019, 11:15 AM
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voodoochile voodoochile is offline
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Originally Posted by Grzegorz View Post
You're not talking about baseball. Why engage in a hypothetical?
Talking about how stats impact wins and losses isn't baseball? People have been discussing baseball stats since there was baseball. The stats have changed/advanced and become more descriptive but the discussion remains the same.

If today's Sox lineup all could hit like that Adam Dunn over the course of a season, the Sox would be expected to have about a .570 winning percentage. That was the point, nothing more, nothing less.
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  #38  
Old 08-17-2019, 08:20 PM
34rancher 34rancher is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
Talking about how stats impact wins and losses isn't baseball? People have been discussing baseball stats since there was baseball. The stats have changed/advanced and become more descriptive but the discussion remains the same.

If today's Sox lineup all could hit like that Adam Dunn over the course of a season, the Sox would be expected to have about a .570 winning percentage. That was the point, nothing more, nothing less.
Voodoo, I love you man, but OMG, not this **** again. I still cringe at the stupidity of singing someone who literally had ONE season on a team that was near .500 (2012 Sox where he hit .200 while had an OPS of .800 and thus showing how this stat is misleading). literally every other team this guy EVER played on (including the parts of the season where he was a rent a player to two playoff contending teams) had a losing record. He was a brutal player. Ever team he played with was better the season after he left.
Can we please never discuss this bum again? It reminds me of that stupid signing thread where I was attacked for disagreeing with the thought of signing him. He’s lucky Ozzie had a heart and found a way for his season to end early and not qualify for the worst season of all time.
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  #39  
Old 08-17-2019, 08:42 PM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by voodoochile View Post
If today's Sox lineup all could hit like that Adam Dunn over the course of a season, the Sox would be expected to have about a .570 winning percentage. That was the point, nothing more, nothing less.
2020 cannot get here too soon. This is the thinnest of proposals I've seen here to date.
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