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  #1  
Old 10-01-2019, 04:50 PM
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DumpJerry DumpJerry is offline
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Default *Offical* Flubs offseason thread

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  #2  
Old 10-01-2019, 05:47 PM
blandman blandman is online now
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Originally Posted by TDog
There is no empirical measure of managerial abilities.
Uh...what?

I've got a Masters degree in Management. I've taken courses specifically on empirical evaluations of management and leadership. I assure you, there are LOTS of ways.
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  #3  
Old 10-01-2019, 09:45 PM
TDog TDog is offline
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Uh...what?

I've got a Masters degree in Management. I've taken courses specifically on empirical evaluations of management and leadership. I assure you, there are LOTS of ways.
And with all that, you've probably never taken a team to the World Series, let alone earned a ring. Tony LaRussa has a JD, and I don't know that he ever won an argument with an umpire. I can't think of any managers with MBAs.

If you want to send me spreadsheet with your data showing how one manager is empirically superior to another, in a way that accounts for the differences in the teams they manage in the leagues and divisions they manage as well as scheduling differences, I would be happy to look at it and correct myself if necessary. As it is, I am unaware of any legitimate way to empirically measure one major league manager against another. Even some business textbooks and some business schools disagree on aspects of business management, and baseball management is different in a variety of ways. Baseball managers don't have the same control over personnel, not to mention the salary structure and aspects of authority

I stand by what I wrote. I have seen nothing that gives me reason to change my mind. If I'm wrong, your data should certainly take into account that Maddon presided over two straight season-ending collapses and not meeting expectations of management and fans since he won the World Series.
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Old 10-01-2019, 10:10 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by TDog View Post
And with all that, you've probably never taken a team to the World Series, let alone earned a ring. Tony LaRussa has a JD, and I don't know that he ever won an argument with an umpire. I can't think of any managers with MBAs.

If you want to send me spreadsheet with your data showing how one manager is empirically superior to another, in a way that accounts for the differences in the teams they manage in the leagues and divisions they manage as well as scheduling differences, I would be happy to look at it and correct myself if necessary. As it is, I am unaware of any legitimate way to empirically measure one major league manager against another. Even some business textbooks and some business schools disagree on aspects of business management, and baseball management is different in a variety of ways. Baseball managers don't have the same control over personnel, not to mention the salary structure and aspects of authority

I stand by what I wrote. I have seen nothing that gives me reason to change my mind. If I'm wrong, your data should certainly take into account that Maddon presided over two straight season-ending collapses and not meeting expectations of management and fans since he won the World Series.
The guy won a World Series with the ****ing Cubs.

The. ****ing. Cubs.

There is no rational debate to be had on this. Rick Renteria is not fit to carry Joe Maddon’s jock, and this is coming from someone who thoroughly loathes Joe Maddon. I hate him more than any other person associated with the year that baseball died. I hate him even more than ****sack Trevor Bauer or ****sack Mike Napoli.
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  #5  
Old 10-01-2019, 11:40 PM
TDog TDog is offline
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Of course, Ozzie Guillen won the World Series with the White Sox, whose free agent signings were smaller and contributing team draft picks were higher. Coming into the season, he wasn't favored the way Maddon was coming into 2016. There was a point where Guillen stopped being a good manager, and this year Maddon wasn't a good manager either.

Given the Cubs of 2016, I don't know that Renteria wouldn't have beaten the Indians in the World Series. Given the Renteria White Sox, I don't know that Maddon would have won any more games than Renteria did. If you're looking at 2019 Renteria certainly looked like a better manager than Maddon. But maybe you don't want to blame Maddon when he loses and only want to look at his successes.

You simply can't say that one manager is bad because he doesn't win with reubilding teams while another manager is superior because he wins with teams that are loaded by ownerships that overspend for short-term success (that contribute to their managers looking very bad in the future).

The problem with this type of analysis is that you have to watch the way managers operate on a daily basis, how they counter their opposition, what they get out of what they have and such. The record doesn't do that. Here is a story from 2010 about a game between two division rivals. What happened, the difference in this game doesn't show up in any statistical records, at least not in any way that reflects what happened.

There are at least two interesting points about this story. Of course, there is what happened and how it made the difference in the game. Secondly, the writer was working under the premise that Bruce Bochy was a manager who made a lot of bad decisions based on his record of generally finishing behind the Dodgers. And Bay Area talk radio, in fact, often complained that Bochy was an idiot because he wasn't winning enough. Later in 2010, he won the World Series and by the end of 2014, he won two more. When I was watching the game in question, I thought it was typical Bochy, even if he hadn't won anything yet. You can't measure managerial skills with analytics. Even tendencies are out of context because they don't consider when a manager is doing what he needs to do to win.

How well would Maddon have done with Palka in the lineup? Would Renteria have had Palka in the lineup if the had been on the edge of contention that Maddon fell off of. Maddon didn't do as well with Kimbrel closing games as Renteria did with Colome closing.

Now, if Maddon had won the World Series with Renteria's 79-win 2014 Cubs -- pre-Bryant, pre-Lester, Edwin Jackson-starting 28-games Cubs (only five games behind this year's Cubs team that had a 3.5-game divisional lead in August), your argument would have more validity.
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  #6  
Old 10-02-2019, 07:49 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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You completely ignored Maddon’s accomplishments in Tampa Bay as well.

There is no question that Joe Maddon is a better baseball manager than Rick Renteria. A majority of the league’s managers are better than Rick Renteria.
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  #7  
Old 10-02-2019, 09:25 AM
slavko slavko is offline
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Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
You completely ignored Maddon’s accomplishments in Tampa Bay as well.

There is no question that Joe Maddon is a better baseball manager than Rick Renteria. A majority of the league’s managers are better than Rick Renteria.
What's your big beef(s) about Renteria's managing, specifically? It might help me understand the point you're making.
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Old 10-02-2019, 10:02 AM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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It looks like this thread has immediately devolved into arguments about 2 former Cubs mangers - Maddon and Renteria. Both guys are no longer employed by the Chicago National League Ball Club and have nothing to do with the Flubs offseason. We already have a Renteria Haters Thread anyway for ripping on Ricky.

Meanwhile back at the North Side, what do people think Theo the Great will do this offseason in terms of their roster? They seem to have limited payroll flexibility even with Hamels's contract coming off the books.

Could they still make a run at a front-line free agent even with their payroll constraints? How likely is it that they'll trade Kris Bryant, who is one of the faces of the franchise, but is due for a big arbitration pay day and has only 2 years left until free agency?

Then, of course, there's the managerial hunt. Anyone likely other than David Ross?
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  #9  
Old 10-02-2019, 10:10 AM
TommyJohn TommyJohn is offline
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Could they still make a run at a front-line free agent even with their payroll constraints? How likely is it that they'll trade Kris Bryant, who is one of the faces of the franchise, but is due for a big arbitration pay day and has only 2 years left until free agency?
Here's one for you-how likely is it that the Chicago media will scream that Bryant should be traded for "prospects" in order to start a rebuild the way they did for Chris Sale? And will they suggest a swap to the White Sox?
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  #10  
Old 10-02-2019, 11:35 AM
blandman blandman is online now
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Originally Posted by TDog View Post
And with all that, you've probably never taken a team to the World Series, let alone earned a ring. Tony LaRussa has a JD, and I don't know that he ever won an argument with an umpire. I can't think of any managers with MBAs.

If you want to send me spreadsheet with your data showing how one manager is empirically superior to another, in a way that accounts for the differences in the teams they manage in the leagues and divisions they manage as well as scheduling differences, I would be happy to look at it and correct myself if necessary. As it is, I am unaware of any legitimate way to empirically measure one major league manager against another. Even some business textbooks and some business schools disagree on aspects of business management, and baseball management is different in a variety of ways. Baseball managers don't have the same control over personnel, not to mention the salary structure and aspects of authority

I stand by what I wrote. I have seen nothing that gives me reason to change my mind. If I'm wrong, your data should certainly take into account that Maddon presided over two straight season-ending collapses and not meeting expectations of management and fans since he won the World Series.
You make some pretty terrible assertions. "even some business textbooks and business schools disagree on aspects of business management". - Yes, but no one is going to tell you you can't empirically evaluate your managers.

"baseball managers don't have control over personnel, not to mention salary structure and aspects of authority" - I feel like you have no idea what managing is. Managing doesn't mean you control everything. Most managers don't control those things. You're thinking of organizational leaders, like what the president and GM are. Managers are tasked with following rules and making sure others do while simultaneously reaching goals while keeping in company values.

It is fairly easy to come up with empirical methods to evaluate managers in any position, using baseline guides that are universal (like culture, production, etc.) and then there are guides that are industry specific like taking into account reasonable factors inherent in the industry. Asking the Royals to win the division would be ludicrous. But judging their manager on in game decisions, feedback from personnel, feedback from fans, on field production, on field development...the list goes on. Not every team is going to have the same method, but all teams are going to have empirical metrics to evaluate their management staff. No large organization operates without it. Or at least, not for very long.
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Old 10-02-2019, 11:47 AM
Grzegorz Grzegorz is offline
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Originally Posted by blandman View Post
You make some pretty terrible assertions. "even some business textbooks and business schools disagree on aspects of business management". - Yes, but no one is going to tell you you can't empirically evaluate your managers.

"baseball managers don't have control over personnel, not to mention salary structure and aspects of authority" - I feel like you have no idea what managing is. Managing doesn't mean you control everything. Most managers don't control those things. You're thinking of organizational leaders, like what the president and GM are. Managers are tasked with following rules and making sure others do while simultaneously reaching goals while keeping in company values.

It is fairly easy to come up with empirical methods to evaluate managers in any position, using baseline guides that are universal (like culture, production, etc.) and then there are guides that are industry specific like taking into account reasonable factors inherent in the industry. Asking the Royals to win the division would be ludicrous. But judging their manager on in game decisions, feedback from personnel, feedback from fans, on field production, on field development...the list goes on. Not every team is going to have the same method, but all teams are going to have empirical metrics to evaluate their management staff. No large organization operates without it. Or at least, not for very long.

"feedback from fans" is an empirical method? Sorry, but many large organizations operate with sub-standard management staff and have for decades.
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  #12  
Old 10-02-2019, 11:53 AM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Here's one for you-how likely is it that the Chicago media will scream that Bryant should be traded for "prospects" in order to start a rebuild the way they did for Chris Sale? And will they suggest a swap to the White Sox?

How about Kris Bryant for Eloy and Cease?
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  #13  
Old 10-02-2019, 12:34 PM
TDog TDog is offline
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I'm not ignoring Maddon's Tampa Bay record. In his last year at Tampa Bay, he won fewer games than rookie manager Kevin Cash did the year after Maddon left for the Cubs. In Renteria's rookie season as manager, his only season with the Cubs, he won just five fewer games than Maddon did with this year's Cubs team.

Renteria did a better job managing the 2014 Cubs than Maddon did the 2018 or 2019 Cubs relative to the talent. Although the 2018 Cubs, favored by many because of its roster, won 95 games, it fell apart at the end of the season, last the division lead, lost the one-game playoff, lost the one-game wild card and came back in 2019 as an underperforming team that struggled into oblivion in September.

Renteria wasn't a manager who couldn't take the Cubs to the next level. In his rookie manager of a rebuilding team, he improved by seven games over the previous year. The difference in 2015 wasn't Maddon over Renteria, it was Bryant and Lester, Fowler leading off and such, the new players brought in after Renteria left. Maddon wasn't hired because because Renteria wasn't going going to get to the next level. Ozzie Guillen had won his championship in his second year as manager and there is no evidence that the Cubs were anything but happy with Renteria before Maddon became available. Maddon was hired because he was a star.

If Maddon had stayed with the Rays (where he wasn't particularly wanted anymore), the Cubs would have kept Renteria. The Cubs parted ways with Maddon because they don't want him anymore.
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  #14  
Old 10-02-2019, 12:43 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by slavko View Post
What's your big beef(s) about Renteria's managing, specifically? It might help me understand the point you're making.
1) His lineups are beyond stupid.

2) He bunts way too much, to the point of taking the bat out of run producers’ hands.

3) He absolutely refuses to adjust when his first choice has proven to be a bad one.

I have zero use for him. He sucks.
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  #15  
Old 10-02-2019, 12:49 PM
blandman blandman is online now
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Originally Posted by Grzegorz View Post
"feedback from fans" is an empirical method? Sorry, but many large organizations operate with sub-standard management staff and have for decades.

Empirical data is observed, non-theoretical data. It includes survey data, as survey data is observed.
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