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  #1  
Old 09-11-2018, 01:43 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Default A reasonable look at 2019 and the state of the Sox

Here at Fangraphs is a short, reasonable take on the Sox. I agree with pretty much everything.
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  #2  
Old 09-11-2018, 04:40 PM
HomeFish HomeFish is offline
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A sobering read.
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  #3  
Old 09-11-2018, 04:46 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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This was decent. I'm a little more positive about our chances next year, depending on how much of the season we see Eloy. But it's a fair take.
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  #4  
Old 09-11-2018, 04:56 PM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is online now
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I think any hope of the White Sox turning out to be a contender a year early went out the window when Kopech went down for Tommy John, the thing is 2020 looks uncertain too.

I donít think this team really answered any questions this season and some guys have taken major steps backwards (or at the very least, they havenít taken any steps forward).
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  #5  
Old 09-11-2018, 05:02 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
I think any hope of the White Sox turning out to be a contender a year early went out the window when Kopech went down for Tommy John, the thing is 2020 looks uncertain too.

I donít think this team really answered any questions this season and some guys have taken major steps backwards (or at the very least, they havenít taken any steps forward).
It's not all bad. Carlos looks like a #1 starter. With even slight improvements from Lopez and Giolito, The rotation can be solid at the top and offer opportunities for Dunning, Cease, et al to contribute. Kopech is a blow, because he was by far the best of the bunch in potential, but young, high ceiling pitching is an area of depth.
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  #6  
Old 09-11-2018, 05:03 PM
Noneck Noneck is offline
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The players that have taken steps forward are players that shouldnt be around if the team becomes good. Two key players stepped backward and another two did neither. Every other player is still a question mark.
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  #7  
Old 09-11-2018, 05:29 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blandman View Post
It's not all bad. Carlos looks like a #1 starter.
I have to disagree. His underlying metrics are pretty bad. Striking out fewer guys than ever. His .201 BABIP is completely unsustainable and speaks to a *huge* amount of luck. Unsurprising, then, that he is sporting a 4.76 FIP and 4.96 SIERA.

In short, his ERA is a very pretty mirage.
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  #8  
Old 09-11-2018, 05:30 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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We still have two top-30 prospects in Robert and Madrigal who donít figure to be MLB regulars until 2021. Competing in 2019 never was a realistic proposition.
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  #9  
Old 09-11-2018, 05:36 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
We still have two top-30 prospects in Robert and Madrigal who donít figure to be MLB regulars until 2021. Competing in 2019 never was a realistic proposition.
It most certainly was not, which is going to make next year on WSI more insufferable than this year!
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  #10  
Old 09-11-2018, 05:49 PM
Tragg Tragg is offline
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I think it's a pretty good take.
But it basically confirms my evaluation of the system: it's good, top 10, maybe top 6 or 8, but not great.
It should be absolutely stacked.
And coupled with the blight of a major league team, I just don't know where this is going.
But, no timetable of course.
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  #11  
Old 09-11-2018, 06:26 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kittle42
I have to disagree. His underlying metrics are pretty bad. Striking out fewer guys than ever. His .201 BABIP is completely unsustainable and speaks to a *huge* amount of luck. Unsurprising, then, that he is sporting a 4.76 FIP and 4.96 SIERA.

In short, his ERA is a very pretty mirage.
Itís not a mirage when the quality of contact is taken into consideration, which those advanced metrics cannot do. Even with the low number of strikeouts, Rodon is better at missing barrels than almost every other pitcher in baseball (a recent Sox telecast showed that Rodon ranked #2 in MLB in this regard).

One of two things will happen. Either that barrel percentage will go way up, or a lot of that weak contact will revert to swinging strikes. Based on the ďeye test,Ē Iím betting on the latter.
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  #12  
Old 09-11-2018, 06:39 PM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohoney View Post
We still have two top-30 prospects in Robert and Madrigal who donít figure to be MLB regulars until 2021. Competing in 2019 never was a realistic proposition.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kittle42 View Post
It most certainly was not, which is going to make next year on WSI more insufferable than this year!
Until Kopech went down, I thought that if (and itís a huge if) Giolito and Lopez could keep having good starts, then the White Sox would at least have an interesting rotation heading into 2019. An interesting rotation plus nearly a full season of Jimenez would be interesting enough, plus hopefully a healthy Abreu and maybe Moncada makes some improvements that it wouldnít be out of the question that the Sox make some noise in 2019 in a weak AL Central. Now, I wouldnít wager money on that but it also did not seem to be totally beyond the realm of possibility either.
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  #13  
Old 09-11-2018, 06:48 PM
Falstaff Falstaff is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187 View Post
Until Kopech went down, I thought that if (and itís a huge if) Giolito and Lopez could keep having good starts, then the White Sox would at least have an interesting rotation heading into 2019. An interesting rotation plus nearly a full season of Jimenez would be interesting enough, plus hopefully a healthy Abreu and maybe Moncada makes some improvements that it wouldnít be out of the question that the Sox make some noise in 2019 in a weak AL Central. Now, I wouldnít wager money on that but it also did not seem to be totally beyond the realm of possibility either.
100% agree with this. I had the White Sox surprising the world and taking AL Central, but with Kopech out, that ain't happening 2019.
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  #14  
Old 09-11-2018, 06:52 PM
hdog1017 hdog1017 is offline
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Not all rebuilds are bound to succeed.

Everyone remembers the Cubs and the Astros, but people forget all the teams that have been terrible for a while. I hope this doesn't happen to the Sox.
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  #15  
Old 09-11-2018, 07:15 PM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiteSox5187
Until Kopech went down, I thought that if (and itís a huge if) Giolito and Lopez could keep having good starts, then the White Sox would at least have an interesting rotation heading into 2019. An interesting rotation plus nearly a full season of Jimenez would be interesting enough, plus hopefully a healthy Abreu and maybe Moncada makes some improvements that it wouldnít be out of the question that the Sox make some noise in 2019 in a weak AL Central. Now, I wouldnít wager money on that but it also did not seem to be totally beyond the realm of possibility either.
Still need a near-total bullpen overhaul with kids who need to get acclimated to the majors, still need another outfielder who can hit better than Yolmer, still need another infielder who can hit better than Engel, and still need to avoid a likely regression by the catchers.

I think your missing outfielder is Robert, your missing infielder is Madrigal, and your catcher of the future is one of the guys currently on the farm. By that time, the new holes will be 1B and corner OF when the team control on Abreu and Avi is gone, but those positions are the easiest to fill.
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