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  #46  
Old 09-25-2018, 09:06 AM
Hitmen77 Hitmen77 is offline
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Originally Posted by Grzegorz View Post
Anticipation...

It's worth the wait.

https://youtu.be/uoLoyg3JKRQ

Bring on 2019!

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  #47  
Old 09-25-2018, 09:14 AM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
It's not only moving the goalposts, but it's also declaring the game "over" in the 2nd quarter.

Yes, that's an excellent analogy.
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  #48  
Old 09-25-2018, 09:23 AM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Originally Posted by TDog View Post
At 22, Adam Dunn had an .854 OPS in his first full season, starting 150 games in the field and appearing in all but four of the Reds' games. He wasn't a great hitter. He hit less than .250 and struck out way too much. He would have better seasons, but he never hit .270. His walk-inflated OPS masked the offensive vulnerabilities his high strikeout rate should have hinted at, especially when he went on to strike out more frequently in subsequent years.

Dunn would go on to display some power for the Reds, and even with the White Sox, albeit less frequently, but he never lived up to expectations he inspired early on. Maybe if he had played in an era where people cared about strikeouts, he would have worked to become a better hitter with a few less home runs.

Going back to the Red Sox, I have never believed in Moncada. I don't believe that playing a few good games at the end of the season means he's primed to break out in 2019 any more than I'm inspired by 12 consecutive scoreless innings from Dylan Covey in his two most recent September starts. The highly touted young players who do poorly at 23 and never develop into impact players outnumber those that turn it around. And they're easier to forget. Certainly if Jimenez next year at 22 has the sort of year Dunn had at 22, let alone the kind of season Moncada has had at 23, there would be overwhelming disappointment from White Sox fans, regardless of his OPS.

I understand the hope. But I don't believe Moncada has justified the optimism.

Adam Dunn was a power hitter first, who due to his defensive limitations in the National League was confined to the outfield and first base, and DH and first base when he played in the American League.


Moncada plays pretty good defense in the middle of the diamond and runs the bases well, too.


I'd be quite pleased if Moncada played good defense at second and put up the exact same offensive numbers (OPS between .819 and .956) - even with the strikeouts - that Dunn did in his first ten years.


It's interesting to note, by the way, that the league-wide batting average in 2018 is .248.
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  #49  
Old 09-25-2018, 09:30 AM
TommyJohn TommyJohn is offline
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Originally Posted by Hitmen77 View Post
It's not only moving the goalposts, but it's also declaring the game "over" in the 2nd quarter.
Or declaring a pennant race over and the team out of it when they are in 1st place by 11 games:

http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/v...244#post816244
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  #50  
Old 09-25-2018, 09:30 AM
ChiTownTrojan ChiTownTrojan is offline
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Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
That's debatable. The preference of a single 6.7 WAR player over 2 4s depends on roster makeup, strengths/weaknesses, etc. The 2 4s take up 2 roster spots. You definitely just can't sum WARs to measure a trade.
I haven't criticized Moncada and have no intention doing so - my only comment has been to stick with the good plate discipline, don't pick up bad habits in reaction to the tight strike zone, and work on fouling off close pitches. He'll be good; he was acquired to be great, but he'll be at least good.
But at some point, ONE of these guys has to break out (actually about 5 of them need to). None has except maybe Lopez sort of. We can see Jiminez and Kopech so close; people can wichcast Burdi. But it needs to happen.
It's true that having a single 6.7 WAR player is probably better than having two 4's, all else equal. But that 6.7 WAR player was going to be on a team surrounded by 0's and 1's that wasn't going to go anywhere. I'd rather have the extra years of control of the two 4-WAR players, hoping that they'll be surrounded by a bunch more 4-WAR players on a contender.
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  #51  
Old 09-25-2018, 09:53 AM
Frater Perdurabo Frater Perdurabo is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiTownTrojan View Post
It's true that having a single 6.7 WAR player is probably better than having two 4's, all else equal. But that 6.7 WAR player was going to be on a team surrounded by 0's and 1's that wasn't going to go anywhere. I'd rather have the extra years of control of the two 4-WAR players, hoping that they'll be surrounded by a bunch more 4-WAR players on a contender.

I agree with this.


I'd add that because the Sox had so few complimentary players (2-3 WAR players) to surround Sale, Quintana, and Eaton, that it was extremely unlikely they could build themselves into contention during the time remaining on their respective contracts, because:


Going on a free agent spree would have resulted in a loss of draft picks;


They didn't have prospect depth to trade to fill all of the holes they had;


They couldn't draft and develop players fast enough to augment the Sale/Q/Eaton core during their respective years of team control.


I didn't like trading Sale, and I agree the jury is still out on the return, but a full-scale rebuild was about the only possible course of action to build a stronger system and avoid the perpetual cycle of winning 75 games and hoping to catch lighting in a bottle.
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  #52  
Old 09-25-2018, 09:59 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by kittle42 View Post
I do not believe that this belief is supported by history.
"Jerry, just remember: Itís not untrue if you believe it."

-- George Costanza
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  #53  
Old 09-25-2018, 10:00 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by HomeFish View Post
I'm not optimistic, but the Sox need to give this kid at least one more year to try out this MLB thing. They have nothing to lose.

One more? Make that two at a minimum. He'll be 24/25 at that point, which is when most players start to break out.
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  #54  
Old 09-25-2018, 10:08 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by Camilo, carry-on View Post
This year Moncada leads all of MLB in strikeouts and has the most errors by a second baseball in all of MLB. He's also hitting a robust .232.

Strikeouts and batting average are meaningless stats as there are tons of better statistics out there that tell the true story of a player's worth.
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  #55  
Old 09-25-2018, 10:16 AM
Mohoney Mohoney is offline
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Originally Posted by TDog
At 22, Adam Dunn had an .854 OPS in his first full season, starting 150 games in the field and appearing in all but four of the Reds' games. He wasn't a great hitter. He hit less than .250 and struck out way too much. He would have better seasons, but he never hit .270. His walk-inflated OPS masked the offensive vulnerabilities his high strikeout rate should have hinted at, especially when he went on to strike out more frequently in subsequent years.

Dunn would go on to display some power for the Reds, and even with the White Sox, albeit less frequently, but he never lived up to expectations he inspired early on. Maybe if he had played in an era where people cared about strikeouts, he would have worked to become a better hitter with a few less home runs.
Adam Dunn experienced a sharp decline after age 30; he aged the way power hitters used to age before the Steroid Era. He also switched leagues; he had to learn all those new AL pitchers at the same time he was going through this aging process. I don't know if any amount of work would have reversed those processes.
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  #56  
Old 09-25-2018, 10:22 AM
rdivaldi rdivaldi is offline
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Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
At some point. And .850-.950 OPS, not a Hall of Famer

.850 to .950 IS a Hall of Famer, especially for a middle infielder. What kind of players do you think are in the HOF right now?


Barry Larkin = .815
Craig Biggio = .796
Alan Trammell = .767
Robbie Alomar = .814
Cal Ripken = .788


How many second basemen have an OPS above .850 this year? Three. How many shortstops? Four. It's not easy to hit that well, maybe expectations for Moncada need to be adjusted towards a more realistic number.
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  #57  
Old 09-25-2018, 12:08 PM
WhiteSox5187 WhiteSox5187 is offline
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Perhaps this point has been made already, in which case I apologize for the redundancy. But I have thoughts about Moncada:

1) It is too early to call him a bust. A lot of really good players have taken a year or two to figure out how to hit major league pitching. Some guys take even longer than that, and of course some guys never figure it out.

2) While it's too early to call him a bust, it is fair to say that this season has been a disappointment for Moncada. He has shown flashes of what he can become, which is great but he hasn't really taken any major steps forward.

What I think makes Moncada's struggles particularly frustrating is when you look around the majors and see how guys like Torres, Soto, Acuna (and to a lesser extent guys like Matt Chapman) have been able to more or less hit the ground running.

Add to that the fact it's been a loooooong time since the White Sox were able to take a position player with good tools from a prospect and develop them into a quality major league player (let alone a star), it makes people a bit more angsty about Moncada's struggles.
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  #58  
Old 09-25-2018, 12:21 PM
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voodoochile voodoochile is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
.850 to .950 IS a Hall of Famer, especially for a middle infielder. What kind of players do you think are in the HOF right now?


Barry Larkin = .815
Craig Biggio = .796
Alan Trammell = .767
Robbie Alomar = .814
Cal Ripken = .788


How many second basemen have an OPS above .850 this year? Three. How many shortstops? Four. It's not easy to hit that well, maybe expectations for Moncada need to be adjusted towards a more realistic number.
I agree, demanding a middle infielder hit as well as the best 1B/LF in the game to justify his ranking and trade value seems a stretch.
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  #59  
Old 09-25-2018, 12:25 PM
Domeshot17 Domeshot17 is offline
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Originally Posted by Tragg View Post
No -it's accurate.
You trade 1 Chris Sale today for 2 Chris Sales tomorrow.
Well, the hope of 2, with the hope that the floor is the value of the whole surpasses the value one of single part in Sale.

Moncada was always going to have to go the Baez route. Guys who K this much take longer to develop, if they do. To be honest, I am most worried about his glove, as that was supposed to be a plus. But the mental strain of your first long season when it is going this bad does not help.
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  #60  
Old 09-25-2018, 04:16 PM
Camilo, carry-on Camilo, carry-on is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdivaldi View Post
Strikeouts and batting average are meaningless stats as there are tons of better statistics out there that tell the true story of a player's worth.
Using that logic, if a player hits .150 and strikes out 300 times in a season, it's meaningless. I would have to disagree.
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